Results for Eight Provinces, including Baghdad
-Islamic Kurdish: 28,401
-Rafidayn Christian: 4,095
-Masoud Brifkani (Independent): 1,341
-Islamic Kurdish: 19,515
-Action Party: 1,720
-Islamic Kurdish: 83,208
-Other Islamic Kurdish: 10,330
-The Solution Party (PKK affiliate): 1,140
-Islamic Loyalty party: 2,670
-Islamic Loyalty party: 3,413
-Islamic Coalition: 2,662
-The Reformers: 1,437
-Iraq Future: 1,843
-Islamic Movement: 2,707
-Islamic Loyalty party: 2,054
-Reform Coalition: 1,490
-Uprising Movement: 10,476
-Iraqi National Congress: 2,723
Analyses: These were the numbers released by Adel Al-Lami of the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq in a press conference today. Many people, including myself, are in disbelief. Personally, these numbers translate into no seats, not even compensatory ones, for either Ahmad Chalabi (who I worked with for seven years) or Mithal Al-Alusi (a close friend who I voted for in these elections and the previous ones).
Having had the opportunity of a front-row seat during the INC years, I find it heartbreaking that Chalabi—without whom these elections would have never happened—be so crushed. Al-Alusi, whose bravery and fortitude for the cause of a secular and liberal Iraq, even after the murder of his two sons last February, was an inspiration.
Even people like Abdel-Karim Al-Mohammadawi, the so-called 'Prince of the Marshes,' who bravely fought Saddam for 15 years under terrible odds, will walk away with nothing. To watch Iraq lose some of its best political talent at this critical time makes me very afraid.
At least judging by Al-Alusi’s numbers, I’d say that somewhere along the line his votes in the southern provinces evaporated. He wasn’t doing so well, but he was ratcheting-up numbers in places like Najaf, Karbala and Basra, according to my sources at the vote-counting process. I can’t say for sure, but at point I think Al-Alusi was cheated of some 18,000 votes in these three provinces. It is too early to point fingers, but there are early indicators of foul play at hand. According to Al-Lami, Chalabi only got 2,723 votes in Basra Province, which doesn’t make sense given that Chalabi’s list in this province included political and tribal heavy-weights like Salamah Al-Khafaji (an inspiring woman whose son was killed last year), Saad Al-‘Aidani and Muzahim Al-Timeemi.
Allawi did very poorly too. It is rumored that he has already left Iraq in a huff, although the source is not totally credible. But whichever way one looks at it, Allawi is out of the picture.
Which leaves us, incidentally, with all the people Iran has been cultivating for decades as the soon-to-be-crowned heads of the Shia community. They will have to do business with the soon-to-be-crowned heads of the Sunni community, who are loathed by ordinary Shias. Adnan Al-Dulaimi, the head of the largest Sunni block ‘The Consenses,’ was elected by a strictly sectarian bias; Sunnis did not listen to him or his allies in the Islamic Party when they called for voting ‘yes’ on the constitution back in October. So, Al-Dulaimi is hobbled by the fact that his constituency controls him rather than the other way around, and thus he must stand as a hardliner against policies such as de-Ba’athification, which would further aggravate the Shia.
The distribution of parliamentary blocks that I had predicted a day after the elections hold true. I got a lot of flack for it. More than anything in the world, I had hoped to be mistaken. Guess I wasn’t, and now Iraq really does need a miracle.
UIA: 130 (likely to increase slightly, includes satellite Sadrist lists)
Consensus: 45 (likely to increase slightly)
Allawi: 20 (likely to decrease slightly)
Mutlag: 15 (likely to decrease slightly)
*CORRECTION UPDATE: Al-Mutlag got 36,670 votes in Baghdad Province and not 451,782. It was my mistake in typing up the info...