Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Friday, August 10, 2007

DC Rumor Mill: “Allawi Political Coup in Full Swing”

So the folks in Stephen Hadley’s NSC outfit are allegedly putting out the word that Meghan “Wanna-Be Ms. Bell” O’Sullivan, the White House’s political envoy to Baghdad, has lined up the necessary support to unseat current Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, who would ostensibly be replaced by the former PM Ayad Allawi.

Pie in the sky, says I.

These are the usual amateurish stunts that US diplomats and spooks resort to when trying to arm-twist a Middle Eastern ‘flunky’; Washington is panicked by the Sunni withdrawal from the government whilst their current policy can be summed up with “Give the Sunnis everything they want”—including arms and protection to former insurgents who’ve been killing Americans and Iraqis for the last five years. By spreading this rumor, the Americans would like to spook Maliki into giving the Sunnis all that they want too—their current demands being the Presidency, and the Oil, Defense and Finance ministries and the Intelligence Service, in addition to their current portfolios—and fall into line with policy.

Here’s a series of reality checks:

-No one can pull-off a military coup in Iraq.

-Parliament is out for another three weeks, so Maliki is not facing an immediate no-confidence vote.

-Adel Abdel-Mahdi, the current Vice-President, cannot deliver SCIRI’s parliamentary votes for the Allawi camp.

-The Sadrists won’t vote for Allawi.

-The Da’awa Party won’t follow former PM Ibrahim Jaafari if he moves against Maliki.

-Anyone seen as “Saudi Arabia’s guy”—as Allawi projects himself, although that may not really be the case as far as the Saudi leadership is concerned—is not likely to get Sistani & Co. to go along with this plan.

-The Iranians won’t let this happen, and they have far more political cards to play in Iraq than the Americans—and they can play those cards smarter than O’Sullivan.

-Why would the Kurds substitute their strong alliance with the Shiites, who are going to run the country for a very long time to come, in return for the fleeting favor of the defeated Sunnis (their rivals on Kirkuk) and a politician such as Allawi whose word really doesn’t go that far?

-Qasim Daoud, a favorite of the Emirati leadership and another PM candidate as far as the Americans are concerned, has too many corruption scandals hovering around his head.

-My sources tell me the following: one of the principal actors who was attempting to bring down Maliki has left Iraq for an extended vacation, telling anyone who’d listen that it can’t be done.

I’ll say it: the Americans are irrelevant to political events in Iraq. They may be arming the insurgents for the time being, but these murderers may have to be the ones who need to be airlifted out when the Americans eventually withdraw in order to dodge reprisals. It’s quite a prospect to consider: former insurgents being resettled in Minnesota.

The Americans may want to bend over backwards to appease the Sunni politicos, and the Saudi, Egyptian and Jordanian patrons who fund them, but that means very little in Baghdad’s intense political universe unless the Shiites play along, and why should they do so once everyone begins to realize that the Sunni insurgency is faltering?

In real terms, the power shift begun on April 9, 2003 has matured as the Shiite politicians began to mature; they’ve begun to play the game as it should be played by those who have the voters’ mandate to lead the political process.

Crocker and his crew may peddle the notion that Maliki is a lame duck, but all they’ll up with is lame government. A panicked gaggle of US diplomats is not a pretty sight either; they are becoming an added hindrance to forming a new, more agile cabinet. Spreading rumors at this junction, and threatening Maliki with something they can’t deliver, is an exercise in futility.

But they need not worry: the White House has consistently rewards congenital failures with promotions and Medals of Honor. Case in point: Ms. O’Sullivan, who has sold herself on the notion that she’s a latter-day Gertrude Bell. Ms. Bell was traversing the deserts alone, in 1904, to learn and report about the Middle East—a journey I’d think twice about nowadays even if I had GPS and a 4 x 4. O’Sullivan, who may be a sweetie for all I know, cannot claim such wisdom.

Leave politics to the Iraqis, and get on with the job of defeating terrorists. That is the fastest way to get the Sunnis to sober up and come to terms with their demographic numbers and their past and current shame as champions of a violent approach in dealing with their next-door neighbors. Consequent Sunni moderation will achieve two things: the Shiites will be less likely to seek Iran’s counsel and protection in preparation for the “worst case scenario” of a regional Sunni onslaught. The second consequence is an earlier, and more honorable, American withdrawal.

Doesn’t that sound better than these silly rumors being put out by the National Security Council?

And since we mentioned Allawi, one can’t ignore this snide story from IraqSlogger. Now just imagine many more poor parking wardens would get “swept along” if Allawi is back in power! Just for the record: Umm Hamza is considered a fine lady by many who know her, and I’m pretty sure she was just having a bad day.

57 Comments:

Anonymous Jamie Blake said...

This is really excellent article. Very helpful.

2:40 AM, August 10, 2007

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Holy smokes, man. Holy smokes.

That was the most intense and jam-packed informational post ever.

8:00 PM, August 10, 2007

 
Blogger bg said...

++

sorry to inform you, but here ya go..

Security Council OKs wider U.N. role in Iraq

excerpts:

[The resolution, approved unanimously, authorizes the U.N., at the request of the Iraqi government, to promote political talks among Iraqis and a regional dialogue on issues including border security, energy and refugees.]

["This resolution underscores the widespread belief that what happens in Iraq has strategic implications not only for the region but for the entire world," said U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad.

Khalilzad said the resolution expands the U.N.'s involvement in Iraq in three ways: by providing assistance and expertise to the Iraqi people and government on domestic reconciliation leading to a national compact, by promoting regional understanding that supports Iraqi reconciliation, and by marshaling resources to help Iraqis affected by the humanitarian crisis.]

==

8:59 PM, August 10, 2007

 
Blogger bg said...

++

even sorrier to inform you..

Iran Joins Cuba & Libya on UN's Anti-Racism Panel

[The world’s most notorious state exponent of anti-semitism – Iran – is being given a seat on the UN committee planning a 2009 UN anti-racism conference. This conference is billed as a review of the implementation of the 2001 UN conference against racism which was held in Durban, South Africa. The infamous Durban Conference is remembered for its broadcast of anti-semitism from a global platform under a UN banner and with UN blessing. Now Iran is being placed in a position to drive the agenda of Durban II.]

i'm at a loss for words, especially considering this.. :(

Domestic Terror in Iran

excerpts:

[It is early dawn as seven young men are led to the gallows amid shouts of "Allah Akbar" (Allah is the greatest) from a crowd of bearded men as a handful of women, all in hijab, ululate to a high pitch. A few minutes later, the seven are hanged as a mullah shouts: "Alhamd li-Allah" (Praise be to Allah).]

[The Mashad hangings, broadcast live on local television, are among a series of public executions ordered by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last month as part of a campaign to terrorize an increasingly restive population. Over the past six weeks, at least 118 people have been executed, including four who were stoned to death. According to Saeed Mortazavi, the chief Islamic prosecutor, at least 150 more people, including five women, are scheduled to be hanged or stoned to death in the coming weeks.]

[The campaign of terror also includes targeted "disappearances" designed to neutralize trade union leaders, student activists, journalists and even mullahs opposed to the regime. According to the latest tally, more than 30 people have "disappeared" since the start of the new Iranian year on March 21. To intimidate the population, the authorities also have carried out mass arrests on spurious grounds.]

[There are, however, an unknown number of unofficial prisons as well, often controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or militias working for various powerful mullahs. Last week, human rights activists in Iran published details of a new prison in Souleh, northwest of Tehran, staffed by militants from the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah. According to the revelations, the Souleh prison is under the control of the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenehi, and used for holding the regime's most "dangerous" political foes.]

[According to Rajab-Ali Shahsavari, leader of the Union of Contractual Workers, 25,795 unionists have been fired since April. He estimates that now over 1,000 workers are losing their jobs each day, as the regime intensifies its crackdown.

Worse still, the number of suspicious deaths among workers has risen to an all-time high.]

[The nationwide crackdown is accompanied with efforts to cut Iranians off from sources of information outside the Islamic Republic. More than 4,000 Internet sites have been blocked, and more are added each day. The Ministry of Islamic Orientation has established a new blacklist of authors and book titles twice longer than what it was a year ago. Since April, some 30 newspapers and magazines have been shut and their offices raided. At least 17 journalists are in prison, two already sentenced to death by hanging.]

==

9:15 PM, August 10, 2007

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bg - if you're suggesting that Cuba is a racist state then you are a fuckwit, it may be authoritarian, communist or whateever, but it is a lot less racist than the USA!

Also, if you believe Iran is an anti-semitic state, please explain why there are 25,000 Jews living there who don't want to leave Iran even though Israel is offering substantial cash rewards if they do so. Iran is anti-Zionist which, except to idiots like yourself, is not the same as being anti-semitic.

3:15 PM, August 11, 2007

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

1:34 PM, August 18, 2007

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

Animalass;
No closed, violent authoritarian states should have any official role in any aspect of international affairs; their opaque and abusive activities, priorities, and goals have zero moral madate, and recognition of any sort only serves to strengthen them. I assume that's what you want to happen!?

1:37 PM, August 18, 2007

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

The article is "informative", but also extremely opinionated, and barely covertly Shia sectarian. Hardly a useful contribution to the situation or debate. Reads like a Sadrist tract, actually.

1:39 PM, August 18, 2007

 
Anonymous Romanesq said...

This is an intense condensed view from the inside of Iraq looking out. It reflects a lot of useful information coupled with the desired outcome all freedom people hope for which is conflict resolution followed by a working orderly government.

Appreciate these insights and tend to agree with them.
There is some movement although most people dispel the notion based on a government on recess.

A change on the ground with the military impact has to result in some movement in the political landscape. Iraqis need to take advantage of this space and use it to form a coalition to secure Iraq.

Most of us would just love to see this happen, the sooner the better.

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6:06 PM, May 21, 2010

 
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