Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

The NYTimes and political mathematics

This is what the New York Times had to say about the stability of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government today (Alissa J. Rubin, ‘Maliki Gains Time, but Faces a Daunting Task,’ September 25, 2007):

Seventeen ministries now are without a minister and those ministers who are left are in many cases doing double duty, making it difficult to improve the performance of the agencies and allow them to deliver desperately needed services like electricity and water.
This may look like me splitting hairs, but I think it’s important to set the record straight: the NYT may have gotten the number 17 by adding up 6+6+5 (6 Sadrist ministers, 6 Consensus ministers, and 5 ‘Allawi’ ministers), but the reality is that 11 ministries are now “without a minister” since 4 of Allawi’s ministers are still at their jobs (…the only one who seems to have followed Allawi’s orders is his relation, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi over at Telecommunications, who keeps telling people in private that he’ll be back on the job soon), and another minister from the Consensus bloc, Ali Baban, who’s in charge of the Ministry of Planning, has returned to his job and was consequently expelled by the Islamic Party for not toeing the party line. Ironically, the head of the Islamic Party, Tariq Hashemi, has not resigned from his post as Vice-President.

What’s also interesting is that all these parties—the Sadrists, Consensus and Allawi—have not pulled out any of their guys who serve as Deputy Ministers, let alone withdrawing their loyalists and appointees who occupy positions further down the bureaucratic chain.

The point of the NYT's ‘News Analysis’ piece can be summed in these paragraphs:

Some are making lists of members of Parliament who would support a “no-confidence” motion to see if it is possible to obtain the 138 votes necessary to remove him. Under Iraqi law, the prime minister and his government can be removed by a vote of no confidence that is supported by a simple majority in the 275-member Parliament.

“There is serious movement around a vote,” said Ezzet al-Shabandar, a senior member of the secular Iraqiya Party, which is led by a former interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi and opposes Mr. Maliki. But, Mr. Shabandar added, some of Mr. Maliki’s opponents are from religious parties and they would like the tacit assent of the religious leaders in Najaf, including the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to remove Mr. Maliki. It is still unclear whether Ayatollah Sistani will take sides.
But if the NYT can’t accurately report on whether 11 or 17 ministries are vacant, then they sure won’t have the capacity to tally-up 138 ‘no confidence’ votes; it’s interesting that the reporter didn’t press Mr. Shahbandar on whether or not Allawi can deliver all 25 votes from his bloc alone towards the “movement” to yank out Maliki. At least four MPs on Allawi’s list have recently expressed their desire to secede from his bloc and form their own coalition with other ‘dissident’ MPs (Safia al-Suheil, Mahdi al-Hafiz, Hachim al-Hassani and Wa’il Abdel-Latif).

The political situation in Baghdad is far more dynamic and fluid, and with many more moving parts, than the picture that is being relayed by this newspaper report: new alliances are being made, and new loyalties are being formed; someone in an established position of authority, such as Maliki, has plenty of space to maneuver and make promises here and here to win over the fence-sitters. It's coalition politics, and the operative word here is patronage.

8 Comments:

Blogger bg said...

++

OT.. woohoo!! :+:

Ayatollah Ali Sistani Blasts Foreign
Media For Bogus Reporting!!


excerpts:

["Be as a great mountain – he added – immoveable before the attempts of some media to attack our unity, exaggerating the number of the victims and speaking of confessional war".]

["Your country is rich and I want you to set aside differences between yourselves and your Sunni brothers and stand like a formidable mountain against attempts by certain satellite networks which try to disrupt this unity because these networks exaggerate about the reports of deaths and explosions and depict them in a way as if tribal war is underway in Iraq," the statement read which was released by the information office of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.

It is the first reaction by the grand ayatollah against foreign
media which try to inflame hatred among Iraqi civilians.]

==

4:49 PM, September 26, 2007

 
Blogger bg said...

++

thank you for a more realistic &
in depth report TG.. (thumbsup)

==

4:56 PM, September 26, 2007

 
Blogger bg said...

++

++

Iraq's top Shi'ite cleric meets Sunni leader

excerpts:

[Iraq's top Shi'ite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani met the country's Sunni vice president on Thursday for the first time to discuss a new initiative aimed at uniting feuding politicians.]

[Hashemi stressed he had not asked Sistani to put pressure on any Shi'ite group to return to cabinet, saying the purpose of the meeting had been to discuss the new initiative, known as the Iraqi National Compact.

"The meeting was profound and many issues related to the political process were discussed," Hashemi told reporters after his meeting with the highly influential Shi'ite cleric.

"I briefed his eminence on the Iraqi National Compact and he informed me he had already seen a copy and read, analysed and expressed his remarks on the initiative," he said.

Sistani's office declined to comment on the meeting.

The Iraqi National Compact is a set of 25 political principles unveiled by Hashemi's party on Wednesday aimed at removing deep mistrust among politicians.

The compact is being distributed to political parties, senior clerics and neighbouring countries. Hashemi said he had asked Sistani for detailed comments on the principles.]

==

10:13 AM, September 27, 2007

 
Anonymous Judi Bola said...

Great blog! I really love how it is easy on my eyes and the information are well written. I am wondering how I might be notified whenever a new post has been made. I have subscribed to your rss feed which really should do the trick! Have a nice day! Sbobet Casino Agen Ibcbet

8:59 PM, April 06, 2014

 
Anonymous Berita Bola said...

Thanks combination of suitable and useful information and well-written sentences that will certainly entice your sense.There are so multiple comments here that are really entertaining and conducive to me thanks for sharing a link especially for sharing this blog. Jadwal Bola Hari Ini Klasemen Liga Inggris

9:06 PM, April 06, 2014

 
Blogger dong dong23 said...

toms shoes
nike factory outlet
replica watches
polo ralph lauren
air max 90
coach factory outlet
asics shoes
louis vuitton outlet
louis vuitton outlet
louis vuitton outlet
jordan 11s
longchamp bags
vans shoes
coach outlet online
longchamp handbags
timberland outlet
hollister clothing store
ghd hair straighteners
ralph lauren
coach factory outlet
nike air force
ray ban
michael kors outlet
louis vuitton handbags
ray ban sunglasses outlet
oakley sunglasses
coach outlet
toms shoes
nike air max 90
asics running shoes
michael kors outlet online
louis vuitton outlet
jordan 3 infrared
nike uk
cheap oakley sunglasses
ray ban outlet
louis vuitton outlet
coach outlet
nike store
cheap ray ban sunglasses
20166.8wengdongdong

6:44 PM, June 07, 2016

 
Blogger dong dong23 said...

beats headphones
jordan 4 toro
michael kors outlet
toms shoes outlet online
kate spade handbags
michael kors canada
jordan 3 infrared
rolex watches outlet
rolex submariner
lebron james shoes 2015
kate spade handbags
louis vuitton outlet
air max 90
louis vuitton outlet
coach factory outlet
mont blanc
tory burch outlet
ray ban
christian louboutin outlet
cheap oakley sunglasses
michael kors outlet
christian louboutin outlet
coach outlet
tods outlet
christian louboutin outlet
nike air force 1
jordans
juicy couture
louis vuitton outlet
fitflops
coach factory outlet
nike roshe run
ghd flat iron
timberland boots
replica watches
cheap oakley sunglasses
adidas yeezy
jordan 3
nike nfl jerseys
christian louboutin outlet
20167.12wengdongdong

6:30 PM, July 11, 2016

 
Blogger Fangyaya said...

kobe 11
fitflops sale clearance
ray bans
lebron 12
christian louboutin outlet
timberland boots
kate spade handbags
nike uk
louis vuitton
michael kors outlet clearance
coach outlet online
coach outlet online
coach factory outlet
ralph lauren polo
coach outlet store online clearances
oakley sunglasses
adidas outlet
longchamp handbags
jordan retro
true religion outlet
cheap oakley sunglasses
louis vuitton outlet
ray ban sunglasses
retro jordans
tods shoes
hollister clothing store
burberry outlet
michael kors handbags
coach outlet
rolex watches
louis vuitton outlet
christian louboutin outlet
jordans for sale
coach factory outlet
mont blanc pens
kate spade handbags
nike air max
ralph lauren outlet
louis vuitton outlet
coach outlet
20167.25chenjinyan

1:20 AM, July 25, 2016

 

Post a Comment

<< Home