Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Monday, March 31, 2008

The ‘Intifada’ That Wasn’t

I won that wager. I had written that “the Iraqi Army’s military operation in Basra will be a spectacular win against disorder and Iranian influence”. And I was right.

Of course, most western media outlets are declaring Muqtada al-Sadr and Iran as the victors of Operation Cavalry Charge. Nothing could be furthest from the truth.

The United Alliance List delegation comprising Ali al-Adib of the Da’awa Party, Hadi al-Ameri of the Badr Organization and (I think…) Qasim al-Sahlani representing a group that had splintered from the Da’awa Party, evidently made al-Sadr an offer he couldn’t refuse when they sat down for a friendly chat in Tehran two days ago: the Iraqi state was willing to go all the way in smashing the Sadrist movement—arresting all the leaders and shutting down all the offices—if he didn’t play along with Operation Cavalry Charge and hand over those operatives whose names appear on the wanted lists.

See Maliki went to Basra with a long-ish list of names comprising all those involved in oil smuggling, drug dealing and the various other crimes that have wracked Basra. It just so happens that many of them claim to be Mahdi Army commanders.

This is what I wrote a couple of days ago:


The Mahdi Army in Basra is only an army in the sense that ‘soldiers’ and ‘cappos’ are rankings in the Cosa Nostra. These organized crime cartels serve many purposes, chief among which is getting rich quick. There’s ample opportunity for mischief in Basra and plenty to pilfer and smuggle: oil, arms, drugs, and whatever happens to fall off a truck leaving the port, after the truck itself had been “re-routed”. So there’s plenty of money and very little law enforcement—kind of like that Scorsese movie, Gangs of New York. Maliki made the calculation that he can take on these cartels and withstand the wrath of the other affiliated Mafiosi ‘familias’ that got unleashed in other parts of Iraq. The criminal syndicate knows that once Operation Cavalry Charge squashes their sweet set-up in Basra, then other pockets of criminality are going to be next, so that’s why they are going to the mattresses.

Well, so far several dozen of these Most Wanted folks have been killed, while tens of others are wounded or in hiding. At least 50 of them are under arrest. The outbreak of violence in places other than Basra was an occasion for the Iraqi Army and police to act on arrest warrants that have been outstanding since 2004, for example, several such dangerous outlaws were taken into custody in Karbala and Hillah.

The only complaints that I heard today came from people who were disappointed that Maliki did not go for the kill: he did not snuff out the Sadrist movement from Iraqi politics. These were people who felt that the time was right to go all way to the point of stripping Sadrist parliamentarians of their immunity and throwing them behind bars for being members of an outlawed party. What is incredibly interesting about this extremist sentiment is that such voices actually now think that Maliki and the Iraqi state have the wherewithal to do such as thing as outlaw the Sadrist movement and smash it. We’re not talking about some weird millenarian movement (…okay, we kinda are), this is the SADRIST MOVEMENT, admittedly much diminished but still, these are the bloody Sadrists, who even Saddam tiptoed around during his time!

Maliki was a political nobody before he ‘accidentally’ became Prime Minister almost two years ago, but today he is perceived as a statesman commanding a strong and motivated army that can impose law and order on once-powerful forces that have run amuck. If that’s not a benchmark of success, then what is?

The western media operating in Iraq regurgitated the Mahdi Army’s bravado as fact thereby serving as useful propaganda tools for the criminal cartels. I’d single out the New York Times, the Associated Press, McClatchy and CNN as the worst transgressors. Many journalists were positively orgasmic in anticipation of another ‘intifada’ or uprising to crease Bush’s message of hope and regeneration. But as the dust began to clear and the real scope of the battle was revealed, these journalists were reduced to alarmism of the “What if Martians decide to invade Basra too?” variety. Understandably, some of these journalists wanted the Iraq scene to heat up so that the public back in America would pay attention to Iraq and consequently to the careers of those reporting on Iraq for their once-glamorous war zone beat that was sure to land one a book deal a couple of years back had gone dull and dreary.

What then did these journalists do when they didn’t get their ‘intifada’? They couldn’t further imperil their careers by admitting that they were wrong—hell no!—so they’ve decided to brand Maliki and the Iraqi Army as the losers.

Really, there’s nothing one can do about this level of shamelessness. These journalists will make the rent this month, but all this spin will inevitably do much damage to their souls.

The weirdest talking point out of this whole episode was that Iran somehow ended up the victor. Tell that to Ahmadinejad who offered a long list of economic projects that the Iranians were interested in doing when he visited Iraq last month, but was politely rejected by Maliki’s team. The UIA delegation that visited al-Sadr went public in denouncing any media talk of Iranian intervention in calming down the situation and described such talk as “enemy propaganda”. I hope the Iraqi parliament would hold an emergency session to immediately revoke the visas of all these foreign journalists who are engaged in “enemy propaganda”, a justifiable measure especially since Iraq is in a state of war, if the foreign media is to be believed! While they’re at it, they should also pass a law that says that cocaine possession by foreign journalists is a crime punishable with unanesthetized nose-realignment plastic surgery.

Operation Cavalry Charge was a reality warp for all those who’ve internalized the rhetoric that Iraq is a failed state. Instead of being dismissed as a ‘Green Zone politician’, Maliki took his war cabinet to Basra and went all Untouchables on the Al Capones of Iraq’s oil-rich south; plenty of journalists and ‘experts’ simply could not grasp these dramatic changes to the political topography of Iraq.

Maliki won, pure and simple. The western media invented the narrative that Maliki was at war with the Sadrist movement, even though no such declaration was ever made. No one was interested in turning the Sadrists into martyrs when their stocks are sinking faster than Bear Stearns' anyway. Why turn the Sadrists into desperadoes with nothing to loose? Maliki’s approach is piece-meal: he’s taken out the intimidation factor that kept much of the Sadrist sway in place and he’s done that by showing them that they are no armed match for a better-disciplined, better-supplied Iraqi Army with plenty of stamina. The Sadrists are left with some political gains that they’ve accrued from joining the political process, such as government posts and lucrative contracts that they’d be loathe to part with and that’s their collateral for good behavior from now on.

Remember these nuggets of wisdom from last week? Has it been that long since I first made the wager??

Muqtada al-Sadr knows fully well that should a third all-out confrontation erupt between forces associated with him on the one hand and U.S. and Iraqi government troops on the other, then it can only end with his death, arrest or the much more unlikely [ooops, now I caught it, this was supposed to read 'likely'] prospect of escape to Iran from which he won’t return to Iraq for a very, very long time—Muqtada really doesn’t like being in Tehran from what I’ve heard...

...This is the weakest that the Sadrist movement has ever been: they are divided, their leader is absent, some answer to Iran, and affluence has made them slothful and soft. Sadrist leaders today are bejeweled with agate rings, Rolexes and precious worry beads, and sport Turkish-tailored suits. They ride around in the latest-model armored SUVs and have taken their second (…and third, and fourth, and…) wives—in some cases the ultimate Iraqi Shia male status symbol, a Lebanese Shia trophy wife. They have access, through the ministries and governmental departments that they landed in the coalition cabinet, to lucrative contracts with unlimited avenues for corruption of all kinds. These were the same angry, dejected men that one would meet in 2003 wearing polyester dishdashas with sweat-stained towels around their necks. Nowadays, they have plenty more to loose should the all-powerful, all-munificent state turn against them.

The 30 member Sadrist bloc in parliament that rode into power as part of the Shia ‘Alliance’ list is loud, boisterous and periodically stages walk-outs. But they never resign, because to do so would mean that they’d forgo their USD 12,000 a month salaries plus all the other perks such as immunity from arrest that come with being an MP.
Now the Sadrist will have to sway voters their way with words and entreaties, rather than threats and drills. Most of the crime cartels are also on notice that the days of the ‘Wild, Wild South’ are over and there’s a new sheriff in town.

Some problems will persist, but their severity had been significantly staunched. Maliki has promised to keep arresting the names on his list, and he has demonstrated that he’s a man who means what he says. The NYTimes does not have much of circulation in Iraq and almost nobody watches CNN, so maybe that’s why the regular folks I’ve been speaking to are so admiring of Maliki. The political elite in Baghdad is freaked out by Maliki’s newfound stature and they must all go back to the drawing boards to recalculate this new dynamic in the political equation.

It is unfortunate that what little news the American public gets to see and read about Iraq gets so distorted by the neurotic contortions of a handful of maladjusted, misinformed journalists. This active disinformation will further confuse those uppity congressmen who’ve made running Iraq from afar their business, and may even sway elections one way or another. But the regular readers of this blog will know that such mistaken perceptions and the actions they may entail no longer worry me, since I see very little that America could do to alter realities in Iraq proper, realities that I find encouraging. Sure, Americans could make things even better had they had the chance to see why Iraq is so worthwhile, but for that to happen integrity would have to be reintroduced into the profession of journalism—don’t hold your breaths. For now, I’d settle for how things are developing on their own accord.

And eventually, Maliki may nab Muqtada over some infraction as banal as tax-evasion. Maliki is not supposed to be a performing monkey for the western media. His job entails doing the very kind of things he’d gone and got accomplished in Basra. Today, Basra is calm and Iraq’s national army is in charge, not the Mahdi’s. Well done, Mr. Maliki.

Mini-Update: I just woke somebody up in Baghdad who usually ends up knowing this sort of thing and he completely dismissed the press report that Iran's 'Sardar Hajji' Qasim Suleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guard's Qarargah Quds (Force), was somehow involved in brokering a 'ceasefire' between Maliki and al-Sadr as a "naive fabrication". The original press report quoted anonymous parliamentary sources.

223 Comments:

Anonymous amagi said...

Nibras,

You are my hero.

8:53 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger CK MacLeod said...

I'd love to hear a debate between you and this guy:

Small Wall Journals Blog: Basra operation as a complete mess and setback

...though I suspect each of you would be tempted to begin by suggesting that the other doesn't know what he's talking about or is more interested in pushing a personal, professional, or political agenda.

I'll also say that I want to believe you, Mr Kazimi - which is precisely the reason why I remain hesitant about just going with my perception that you've been ahead of the game for a long time.

(apologies if this is a re-post, but the first attempt didn't seem to work)

9:30 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Geesh,

that Nance guy sounds like every liberal far left defeatist. Reading it is nothing but a political attack.

Thats sad. I expected more from SMJ since thats where I picked up on COIN strategy.

Yeah, I agree. Would like to see Nibras go at it with him on the facts. Interesting how Nance does not address the ceasefire by Sadr as being overwhelmed by IA.

I smell the usual Democrat supporter on his spewing rant.

Michael

9:44 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi ck mcleod,

First, I don't know who Malcolm Nancy is.

Second, I'm not in the business of garnering votes as to which analyst is more believable than the other. I have no way of competing with the New York Times and other major media outlets, and the space and 'legitimacy by celebrity' exposure they afford to the tailored analysis that is most convenient to their message.

I'm just a lowly blogger in this wide and murky swamp. All I'm doing is registering a complaint against false narratives. I know it won't go anywhere but it makes me feel better to put it out there in case someone finds it useful.

Best,

Nibras

9:48 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger CK MacLeod said...

Michael - the fact that it was at SWJ, and that Nance at least talks like something other than your usual totally militarily ignorant reporter-propagandist, forced me to give it more credence than I would if it appeared somewhere else.

9:50 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger CK MacLeod said...

Nibras - I think you may have greater influence than you realize, and in any event there are more than a few of us who are trying to sort out these competing narratives, and you stand as one of the, to say the least, better-informed observers available. I don't think it's a complete coincidence that your name comes up in the first lines of the first comment at the SWJ post.

I was just about to post my own comment there, referring to your take on the operation - which might as well be taking place in another country for all the similarity it has with the operation described by Mr Nance. Your reply to my post makes me wonder if you'd rather not be brought into that discussion however.

There's an old saying in military affairs: "The first reports are always wrong." I think that nowadays we can often say, "The first reports are always propaganda, and the second, third, and fourth usually are, too." Getting to some semblance of the truth doesn't seem easy.

10:01 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Dear ck mcleod,

Thank you for your kind words, and you're right: I don't want to be drawn into such discussions that invariably end-up very personalized and belligerent.

Not that I abstain from personalizing things myself; there are a couple of phoneys out there trying to pass themselves off as 'experts' that I just love to torment. It's not nice and it's not mature. But the indignation that builds-up needs to vent. Alas, I'm not proud of beating up on them, yet it scratches that itch!

But when it comes to Iraq, there will have to be a cut-off point for all the BS. A certain amount of time will pass, and certain things will accumulate (...such as Operation Cavalry Charge), and then it will become untenable for certain negative arguments to be made. A year ago anyone predicting a dramatic turnaround would have been ridiculed (...and I was). Now, the other side cannot dismiss rosier forecasts for Iraq with the same disdain. A year from now, I predict that it will be the turn of the other side to get ridiculed should they wish to cling to the same talking points.

So there you have it: public perception is a lot like intelligence work; it's never as neat as those John Le Carre novels but rather it is messy, opaque and attempting to 'call it' invariably turns acrimonious. But with time, certain things get clearer and I think that the Iraq story, if given time, will vindicate some of what I've been writing.

Thanks again for reading and commenting,

Nibras

10:20 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger CK MacLeod said...

Though lacking the level of detail that you typically bring to your work, a post by Dean Esmay, linked to by Michael Ledeen at The Corner, echoes yours (and entertainingly!): Sadr's Triumphant Surrender (the title is ironic)

In the Corner post ("The Humiliation of Maliki, the Wonderfulness of Iran"), Ledeen says, "Rarely has an event been so atrociously distorted as the defeat of the Iranian-supported militias in Iraq in the past week."

Anyway, you're not alone...

10:31 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nope, if Maliki had a chance of winning, he would have, he made promises last week that he couldn't keep, going to Iran to get them to pressure Sadr to make a truce makes him look weak, only total victory and crushing Sadr would have been a victory as he was saying he would do, this is going to play badly for Maliki in October, if he lasts that long. Sadr's forces remain intact, his support grows as people are angry at Maliki for the fighting an d the curfews just as things were getting peaceful and he looks like he backed down. Sorry but there is no way to spin this as a maliki win without ignoring the facts

11:49 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Blogger Lee said...

According to a recent article from the Los Angeles Times (Which is somewhat of a West Coast counterpart of the NY Times) Sadrists claimed they ultimately emreged as victors from this conflict.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-sadrcity1apr01,0,382148.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel

Is this statement a typcial example western distortion of actual events? If what you say is true, this strikes me as the kind of defeatist mentatily that plagues major American media.

"The resilience of the Mahdi Army militia appears to have surprised Maliki, who said his offensive was meant to crush lawless elements in Basra. Top Iraqi commanders acknowledged Monday that they had been taken aback.

"The presence of the armed men [in the street] made this operation become bigger than it was," said Maj. Gen. Abdul Aziz Mohammed Jassim, operations commander for Iraq's Defense Ministry.

On the edge of Sadr City, where a vehicle ban was still being enforced, an Iraqi army officer stared at a giant mural of Sadr's father, a grand ayatollah who died under the regime of Saddam Hussein and the man for whom the Baghdad district is named. "We need 100 years to be a strong military," the officer said."

11:51 PM, March 31, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Its not defeatist to tell the truth, where is the success for Maliki, he said this was the decisive battle and he would not negotiate that he would destroy the militias, and yet he didn't destroy them, this wasn't decisive, at best it was a stalemate and he did negotiate. Why do you think the GOP is now saying he did it without consulting the US, because they know it was a failure, if he was winning and could destroy sadr's forces then why didn't he? By not destroying Sadr he leaves Sadr in the drivers seat in the provincial elections in October, not only that he made Sadr look like the man of peace and Iran as the beneficial friend looking to maintain order with its neighbor, while the Maliki Gov and the US occupation looks like fools.

I know you right wingers still think Iraq carried out 9/11 and that there are WMD's somewhere in the desert but please stick to reality, there is no way this looks good for Maliki. Total victory and the capture of Sadr would have looked good, this looks like he bit off more than he could chew and had to back down.

12:47 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Anonymous WTF are you talking about? said...

Capture of Sadr?? The guy was in Iran, you nincompoop! The operation was never against his entire political movement, just the militias who were controlling the streets in Basrah. The Iraqi army inflicted severe losses on them, forced them off the streets and are now consolidating their control of Basrah. If that isn't a clear victory, what is? And the Sadrists are not going to win the provincial elections after what they've been doing in the South.

1:59 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ye I'm aware he is in Iran, which is why it wasn't going to be a success, because you weren't going to stop him, they are in Basra yes, but so is the mahdi army, intact and still armed, Malaki already had to stop arrests, and he's already talking about releasing those they've already captured, just like Sadr said they would. So what does he gain? He's in Basra but without stopping the Mahdi's he hasn't stopped what is going to happen, he's going to get voted out. Being in Basra also means you have to hold it, he doesn't have the troops to do so and still guard other cities, so that means hiring more, more untrained troops or even worse mahdi sympathizers.

Also more people are angry at malaki than they are at Sadr, sorry but all Maliki did was ensure his defeat, and possible the defeat of the US occupation

5:21 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ck macleod,

Agree with SWJ cred, but in reading Nance's post, it smells of some usual leftist talking points.

Nance obviously has the training and experience from a military perspective and I honor his service, but what he writes comes off angry, petulant and condescending, somewhat arrogant.

Putting that aside, what most bothered me was his obvious omissions of Sadr's defeat in this battle. They got pummeled with dead and captured leaders and followers. Maliki improved his position among all groups except the lonely Sadrist puppets of Iran.

Except for Nances military cred, his article sounded like any item out of LA and NYT or for that matter Huff&Puff, DailyKos or MoveOn.org.

Nibras is correct and so is Ledeen. Plus, Maliki is continuing Rule of Law as stated by General Aziz.

In fact, this is the first time I've been impressed with the top leadership for a major OPS. Not only did they kick butt and were able for the first time to take care of their own logistics, move brigades, coordinate and plan across country, they have also managed a good media campaign.

Nance does not like what the IA and Maliki say in the press. He finds fault with their similar tactics and media savvy as similar to CF. Well, guess what. I'll trust Petraeus. To me, this is exactly why this was a success. Maliki and IA learned from Petraus. They're taking out the criminals, the bad guys, and those who do not honor ceasefires.

Good on them. Bad on Nances perspective input and political machinations. As to his sources, well... who knows. But I do not trust his motivations based upon his commentary and the fact that he disses Petraeus's Plan afterall his whining.

It is Petraeus that brought COIN to Iraq and succeeded, but now Nance questions the moves of this success? As if Sadr is not an Iranian puppet?

Thats what I got from it.

michael

6:34 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nibras,

Did you respond to my last comment sometime ago?

Did you think maybe it would be a good idea to bring some Iraqis to America for a tour?

My idea is not to support a political candidate. But to allow for more awareness in front of American people and to bypass the usual gatekeepers.

Did you see my comments?

Michael

6:38 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Neo andertal said...

Here’s a relatively straight-forward way of putting it. How many times in history has an armed faction won by abandoning the field of battle to the opposition? Not many! Only a post-modernist would argue otherwise. I’m not sure on what bases, but trust me they will argue otherwise.

The contention that Maliki and the IA were loosing is mostly based on the level of violence and chaos in Southern Iraq, especially the level of confusion in Basra. In order for that argument to hold, the level of violence and chaos must be maintained long term, not just for few agonizing days. The Iraqi army now controls part of Basra where a few days ago there was no governance. The Mahdi army has scampered off and hidden somewhere under Iraq.

Maybe the MSM thinks that Sadr held out long enough to make special rhetorical bonus points with the intelligentsia. There’s no such thing as scoring rhetorical points on a battlefield.

7:17 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Neo andertal said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

7:24 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Neo andertal said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

7:26 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Neo andertal said...

Pics from Basra recruitment center. Lining up to join the “loser” IA.
Wide frame shot, there’s at least 200 people in this shot.

Basra Recruitment Center

7:38 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

pardon the repeat: from a previous posting..

HT : TLWJ (Roggio)

Maliki: "Security operations in Basra will continue"

excerpts:

[One day after Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, called for his fighters to abandon combat, the fighting in Basrah has come to a near-halt and the Iraqi security forces are patrolling the streets. While Sadr spokesman said the Iraqi government agreed to Sadr's terms for the ceasefire, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has said the security forces will continue operations in Basrah in the south. Meanwhile, the Mahdi Army took heavy casualties in Basrah, Nasiriyah, Babil, and Baghdad over the weekend, despite Sadr's call for the end of fighting.

Maliki was clear that operations would continue in the South. "The armed groups who refuse al Sadr's announcement and the pardon we offered will be targets, especially those in possession of heavy weapons," Maliki said, referring to the 10 day amnesty period for militias to turn in heavy and medium weapons. "Security operations in Basra will continue to stop all the terrorist and criminal activities along with the organized gangs targeting people."

The Iraqi military said it was moving in more forces into the south after admitting it was surprised by the level of resistance encountered in Basrah. "Fresh military reinforcements were sent to Basra to start clearing a number of Basra districts of wanted criminals and gunmen taking up arms," said Brigadier General Abdel Aziz al Ubaidi, the operations chief for the Ministry of Defense. "Preparations for fresh operations have been made to conduct raids and clearance operations in Basra... the military operations would continue to restore security in Basra."

The reasons behind Sadr's call for a cessation in fighting remain unknown, but reports indicate the Mahdi Army was having a difficult time sustaining its operations and has taken heavy casualties. "Whatever gains [the Mahdi Army] has made in the field [in Basrah], they were running short of ammunition, food, and water," an anonymous US military officer serving in South told The Long War Journal. "In short [the Mahdi Army] had no ability to sustain the effort.]

[There have been few reports of clashes in the Shia districts of New Baghdad, Sadr City, and elsewhere on Monday. US and Iraqi security forces killed 48 Mahdi Army fighters during a series of clashes throughout Baghdad on Sunday. US and Iraqi security forces captured at least 22 Mahdi Army fighters in Baghdad. Twenty of those were captured in Sadr City. An unknown number of Mahdi Army fighters in the Iskan and Washash neighborhoods have gone against Sadr's demands to keep their weapons and have surrendered them to the military in accordance with the amnesty offer issued by Maliki.]

oh yeah, make that fat man sing!!

ps: Maliki is taking all the necessary steps to assure Sadr & Thugs are whittled down to toothpicks.. albeit many would like to cheer a total annihilation of the Mahdi et al.. if Maliki were to militarily "take Sadr out" per se, he would be viewed by many as another Saddam knocking off a political opponent for personal gain..

bottom line: there is more than one way to skin a fat cat.. it just takes time..

==

11:28 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Neo andertal said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

11:48 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Neo andertal said...

I had to snicker a bit about how this latest piece was done. It’s not a story anymore it’s soup. We can accuse him of leaving any angle out now, can we. This has everything!

Newest NYT Piece

11:53 AM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

Former Saddam Officer, Now NYT Reporter,
Apparently Involved in Over 300 Stories


they keep on being exposed for the frauds they are.. yet
some people just can't wait to swallow their kool-aid, not
to mention having the wherewithal to cross check it..

==

12:00 PM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger Ravi said...

Nibras,

Thank you for your analysis. I am no fan of Al-Sadr and am on record ascalling him the most dangerous man in Iraq, years before Mr.Malaki said so. I am also on record as having called for his defeat, several times (www.orbat.com).

Nonetheless, how do you account for:

(1) US/UK intel both said govt does not control ~70% of Basra - this is after the fighting was almost over.

(2) There was no action against Badr Militia or Fahdila, only against Al-Sadr. Sure the first two are equally part of Basra corruption. It is hard to escape the conclusion the offensive was partisan.

(3) Mr. Malaki said he would not leave Basra till the criminals were defeated. He gave a 72-hour deadline to hand over weapons. Mahadi Army says they have handed over nothing. Are they then lying?

(4) Why would the Americans keep insisting they/Mr.Malaki were only acting against rogue elements of the Mahadi Army when - to go by what you are saying - the target was the Mahadi army proper? It seems that the Americans were desperate their truce with Al-Sadr is maintained at all costs. Would they allow Mr. Malaki to disrupt their truce, to which the surge's success is due, by going after Al-Sadr?

Now here is something on which I would like to hear your views: Iran - I am told - is financing ALL Iraq Shia factions except Dawa. Iran gives al-Sadr his marching orders. If that is correct - and I have heard it from so many sources I have no reason to believe that is wrong - if he called for a ceasefire, he was told by Iran to call for a ceasefire.

Iran did not start this, Al-Malaki/US started it - Mr. Malaki's aims are clear,US's not. But Iran finished it because (a) it wants to demonstrate its power to the US; (b) it is saving al-Sadr for (i) if the US attacks Iran and/or (ii) for when the US leaves.

Your comments will be very much appreciated.

At any time you are welcome to send me your thoughts on Iraq, they will be published regardless of what you say. We definitely have our own point of view based on our sources, but at all times we welcome differing views. we publish without editorial deletions, except to ensure the language is not abusive.

Thanks,

Ravi
Editor
Orbat.com

1:01 PM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

Nicholas;
This is a shamelessly self-congratulatory posting. Entirely deserved. Well done!

Ravi;
The IA took out everyone who shot at them. Get it? That they were 99% Sadrists is whose choice, exactly?

As for the "rogue" fig-leaf, there is a stupid and cynical game of Mutually Agreed Pretense going on. The reality is that by the time all the "rogue" elements have been whittled off, Mookie will be left with a toothpick, and no teeth.

Did you notice that while he's playing nice with cease-fires, etc. he was also fulminating at the Arab League to get support for driving the foreign devils out of Iraq? By any and every means possible?

8:40 PM, April 01, 2008

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

Owps. "Nibras", not "Nicholas". Sorry! 8-O\

9:13 PM, April 01, 2008

 
Anonymous gj said...

It all brings to mind December 2006 when Mogtada pulled his ministers out of the government and western commentators and reporters got very excited about the prospect of the Sadrists forming coalitions with the Sunnis to bring down the government. This was after the Mahdis had spent the better part of 2006 rounding up all the military military aged Sunni males in Baghdad, drilling holes through them and dumping the bodies on vacant allottments - the inconsistency never got a mention.

Anyway early the following month, January, Moqtada toddled off to a meeting with Sistani, after which he rejoined the government, announced agreement with the Baghad security plan and declared a unilateral ceasefire on the coalition.

And of course only a coupla weeks before this meeting the Mahdis had been given the satisfaction of executing Saddam.

The reporting of Iraq is truly, truly deluded. However if the white stuff is contributing to this, Nibras, thank you for enlightening us. More of it, please.

10:45 PM, April 01, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dearest Nibras,

If your argument is correct, then the true impetus of the "cavalry charge" is to engage laws and restore order. Order may be calcified by the absence of criminal elements...but which laws are they being tried under. What does the judicial process in fact look like in Irak? Does arresting a list of people afford justice?

Best,
Harbook

7:25 PM, April 02, 2008

 
Blogger Howard Richman said...

Nibras,

I love what you have been writing about Operation Calvary Charge. I have been sending the readers of my blog over to yours! I thought you might enjoy my latest posting:

The Associated Press, today, laid out its own goals in its latest Iraq operation, codenamed "Pinocchio's Nose." Here is the revealing paragraph from today's story:

"The faltering effort to drive Shiite militias from Basra has raised doubts about whether the Iraqis are capable of maintaining security in Iraq just a week before top U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus is to brief Congress about prospects for further American troop cuts."

Their goal in "Pinocchio's Nose" is to portray the successful government offensive to bring law-and-order to Basra as "faltering" in order to "raise doubts about whether the Iraqis are capable of maintaining security in Iraq" so that they can undercut Patraeus testimony that will occur in just one week.

However, the facts on the ground are making the Associated Press position more and more untenable. They may soon have to resume their cease fire and go back to their bunkers in Baghdad where they can more easily ignore all of the positive developments in the country. Here is the latest from http://www.longwarjournal.org/:

"Today the Iraqi Army marched through the Mahdi Army-infested Hayaniyah district in central Basrah. On April 1, the Hillah Special Weapons and Tactics unit captured 20 'smugglers' in Basrah. On March 31, Iraqi Special Operation Forces killed 14 'criminals' during a raid against Mahdi Army forces occupying a school in Basrah.

The Iraqi security forces will continue to clear Basrah, according to the Army. During Sunday’s press briefing, Major General Abdul Aziz said several districts of Basrah were cleared, and these operations would continue. 'Our troops managed to clear certain areas in Basra, Najubya, Al Ma’qil, Al Ashshar Wazuber and Garmat Ali and other places as well,' said Aziz. 'Starting from today, we will work on clearing the other places from the wanted individuals and criminals and those who are still carrying weapons.'”

Follow the following link to read about it: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/04/iraqi_military_conti.php

Howard Richman
jews4huckabee.blogspot.com

9:43 PM, April 02, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great stuff. Well-informed, detailed and interesting. Without bloggers we would simply not know this stuff. The MSM reps, all desperate for another Vietnam and if possible several My Lais along the way, would have constructed their pat little story about defeat and be smiling again at the implied defeat for Bush's strateg- I mean, nefarious schemes. And we would have no choice but to believe them.

2:36 AM, April 03, 2008

 
Anonymous sfcmac said...

To the 'Anonymous' joker
(12:47 AM, April 01, 2008)who's been writing the standard demleft party line throughout this thread:

The "Iraq is an unnecessary war" defeatist morons always raise their ugly heads every time the subject pops up.
Newsflash: Hussein was a WMD-wielding megalomaniac who cavorted with al Qaeda. He thumbed his nose at every resolution enacted by the U.N. including Res. 1441,which in conjunction with Congressional approval, gave us the authority to use military force. You ought to read it some time. We also found tons of cyclosarin, among other discovered WMDs, and I’m damned glad we took out the sonofabitch before he had the chance to use what he had. Hussein should have been finished off in 1991 when we were there the last time.
Oh yeah, and here's what was found:
WMDs found:
1,500 gallons of chemicals believed destined for attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces and civilians.
Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/13/AR2005081300530.html

1.77 metric tons of enriched uranium and roughly 1000 highly radioactive sources.
http://www.energy.gov/news/1388.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3872201.stm

Warheads loaded with Sarin
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,124576,00.html

IEDs and artillery shells containing Sarin
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120137,00.html
And:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20060313-123146-7380r.htm

Those weapons were previously unknown to the U.N. inspectors.

And his terrorist connections:
The Mother of All Connections:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/005/804yqqnr.asp?pg=1

Secondly, the al Qaeda will cross borders no matter where we struck back, which is why I would have transformed Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan into asphalt parking lots on 12 September 2001. (for starters) Afghanistan, like Iraq, is just one more battlefield in the war against Islamofascism. We made a mistake by walking away in 1989 after we helped kick out the Soviets.
This war ain't over by a long shot. Al Qaeda and Taliban are funded, aided and supported throughout the Middle East. The Islamofascist vision of a world Caliphate will continue unless we kill them all off.
Our policy should be simple: you attack us, we annihilate you, your supporters, your country, everything.
That's how you fight a "jihad". But, I'm a former Soldier, not a politician.

"Anonymous" is really miffed that we dared to take out Bin Ladens thugs in Afghanistan, and then Iraq, which was a peripheral threat, to boot.

SFC Cheryl McElroy
US ARMY (RET)
Iraq War Veteran

5:23 AM, April 03, 2008

 
Blogger Howard Richman said...

Nibras,

Did you notice that an Iraqi convoy marched through Hayaniya yesterday, despite NYT reports (that you pointed out were phony on March 24) that Iraqi government vehicles would not be able to fit in those streets!

In my blog, I wrote that the New York Times reputation just took one of the first casualties in Operation "Pinocchio's Nose."

Howard Richman
jews4huckabee.blogspot.com

7:33 AM, April 03, 2008

 
Blogger Gila said...

The article was great--thank you for writing. I really hope and pray that this guy can establish control. From the news reports, it sounds like the Iraqi people have been going through hell with all of the terror attacks, etc. They deserve a break.

1:18 PM, April 03, 2008

 
Blogger Tom W. said...

Nibras:

Something for all Iraqis to keep in mind:

Military operations in urban terrain (MOUT) are the hardest missions for any force to carry out. Not only are they very dangerous, but they require great tactical and logistic skills.

The current Iraqi army has existed for only about four years, but it took on this incredibly dangerous operation against terrorists trained by Hezbollah and the Qods Force, who between them have over fifty years' experience.

Yet the Iraqi army didn't run, crack, surrender, or back down. Not only that, the Iraqi army deployed itself incredibly quickly and resupplied itself with minimal help for the Coalition.

All Iraqis should be very proud. Your army faced down the most dangerous terrorists in the region.

In case you haven't seen it, here's a video of your special operations forces in action in Sadr City.

http://www.tinyurl.com/2ce6dg

Git some, Iraqis!

4:56 PM, April 03, 2008

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

Sgt. Cheryl;
So bellicose! So punitive! So great!

But the "parking lot" meme is overworked and overblown. Even large H-bombs would require hundreds to blanket a country, and that'd darken the globe's skies with fallout dust for decades.

One or two on military HQ cities should suffice.

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