Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Fascinating: The Jihadists Admit Defeat in Iraq

A prolific jihadist sympathizer has posted an ‘explosive’ study on one of the main jihadist websites in which he laments the dire situation that the mujaheddin find themselves in Iraq by citing the steep drop in the number of insurgent operations conducted by the various jihadist groups, most notably Al-Qaeda’s 94 percent decline in operational ability over the last 12 months when only a year and half ago Al-Qaeda accounted for 60 percent of all jihadist activity!

The author, writing under the pseudonym ‘Dir’a limen wehhed’ [‘A Shield for the Monotheist’], posted his ‘Brief Study on the Consequences of the Division [Among] the [Jihadist] Groups on the Cause of Jihad in Iraq’ on May 12 and it is being displayed by the administration of the Al-Ekhlaas website—one of Al-Qaeda’s chief media outlets—among its more prominent recent posts. He's considered one of Al-Ekhlaas's "esteemed" writers.

The author tallies up and compares the numbers of operations claimed by each insurgent group under four categories: a year and half ago (November 2006), a year ago (May 2007), six months ago (November 2007) and now (May 2008). He demonstrated that while Al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq could claim 334 operations in Nov. 06 and 292 in May 07, their violent output dropped to 25 in Nov. 07 and 16 so far in May 08. Keep in mind that these assessments are based on Al-Qaeda's own numbers.

The author also shows that similar steep drops were exhibited by other jihadist groups, and he neatly puts it all together in these two charts:





I don’t have the time to translate these charts right now, or translate the analysis he provides, but I wanted to share this with you immediately because it is a stunning and unprecedented admission of defeat!

Back in March 2007, I predicted as much in a column titled Jihadist Meltdown, and I wrote the following:

• The Al Qaeda-led Islamic State of Iraq orchestrates 60% of the actions, including most of the spectacular mass murders of civilians and military engagements with the American military. Most of the rank and file is Iraqi as is al-Baghdadi himself, but foreign nationals are better represented in the leadership.

• Other jihadist groups such as Ansar al-Sunna, the Islamic Army of Iraq, the Mujaheddin Army, and the 1920 Revolt Brigades, most of which are Iraqi organizations with longstanding Salafist roots, conduct 30% of the operations.

• Various Iraqi Baathist factions orchestrate 10%.
I go on to describe why I thought that this defeat was inevitable:

This sense that they were running out of time compelled Al Qaeda to take a bold initiative of declaring the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq four months back, appointing the hitherto unknown Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as its head. This was no propaganda stunt for Al Qaeda. This was the real thing: the nucleus state for the caliphate, with al-Baghdadi as the candidate caliph.

But this was a fatal strategic mistake for Al Qaeda, a mistake that threatens to pull down all the other jihadist insurgent groups along with it. Al Qaeda tried to leap over reality, but it was a leap into the abyss of uncertainty. Trying to pick a caliph is fraught with historical and judicial complications since there is no historical precedent — not even from the time of the Prophet Muhammad — that would serve for an uncontroversial transfer of power. It is one of the most delicate ideological matters among jihadists, a matter so sensitive that most of them have decided to leave it aside for the time being lest it result in splintering off dissenters.

But Zarqawi's successors, who inherited the leadership after his death last June and who are, for the most part, rash young ideologues who consider themselves the avant-garde of contemporary radical Islamism, felt that the doddering old guard of Al Qaeda — aged and increasingly inconsequential has-beens such as Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri — would never summon the nerve to force the issue of the caliphate and get it going. So they rushed into action, and it has exploded in their faces, since no other groups seem enthused to join them in this risky venture. This mistake has huge implications for the Iraqi insurgency since Al Qaeda accounts for most of it, and its strategic and ideological failure can quickly be turned into a battlefield rout.
Furthermore, I want to point out something even more critical: this defeat is not only a tactical one for the jihadists; this defeat is strategic in essence since it snuffs out their dream of resurrecting the caliphate, the raison d’être of modern jihad.

In case there are naysayers out there who’d question the Islamic State of Iraq’s relevance to the caliphate, then I’d like to direct them to a 101 page edict published by the ISI under the title ‘Informing the People About the Birth of the State of Islam’ that they put out during January 2007. The ISI legitimates itself by the same premises that the classical theorists of the caliphate (Juweini, Mawardi...etc.) set down for picking a caliph in medieval times. Then a month later, the 'Global Islamic Media Front' republished a 1987 Master’s thesis that further expands on these points and adds the one about the necessity of a Qurayshi ancestry for the would-be caliph—as is claimed by the head of ISI, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, for himself. Numerous works have also been added to bolster the argument that al-Baghdadi’s ‘election’ followed the precepts mandated for a caliph: clearly the title of ‘Prince of the Faithful’ that was bestowed on him had a whole different, more profound implication than the identical one awarded to Mullah Omar, an ethnic Pashtun and non-Qurayshi, during the Taliban days.

Thus, not only is America defeating Al-Qaeda militarily in Iraq but it is also squashing the grand jihadist vision for a caliphate that the Islamic State of Iraq stood for. This point is critical: in this ideological war, victory can only come about when the ideology of the opponent is negated and proven unworkable. The fight in Iraq is doing just that.

I’m not saying that the jihadists won’t keep trying to find a workable formula for the caliphate elsewhere, but for now they have been dealt a severe demoralizing blow.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it all ye calling for a hasty withdrawal.

412 Comments:

Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

I'm posting the Arabic text of the post just in case it gets yanked off Al-Ekhlaas:


12-05-2008, 10:16 PM
درع لمن وحد
قلم متميز
المشاركات: 543
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‫دعي له 547 مرات في 45 مشاركات

[ ’ دراسة مختصرة في آثار تفرق الجماعات على مسيرة الجهاد في العراق ‘ ]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

دراسة مختصرة في
آثار تفرق الجماعات على مسيرة الجهاد في العراق


عرف الجهاد في العراق تطورا وزخما متزايدا مع تزايد قوة الحملة الصليبية ، وحققت المسيرة الجهادية مكتسبات عظيمة على دماء وأشلاء أبناء الإسلام من أهل العراق ومن خارجه الذين أتوا ليحققوا حلمهم في الجهاد وليدافعوا عن المسلمين الذين تفتك بهم الآلة العسكرية الصهيوصليبية بتواطؤ ومساهمة من حكومات المنطقة وبالأخص الحكومة السعودية والأردنية والكويتية ، إضافة لمساهمات متعددة واستراتيجية لدول أخرى كقطر ، ولا ننسى الأطماع الصفوية لإيران في المنطقة والتي ساهمت بشكل أساسي في سقوط العراق وفي تحوله إلى الحالة الراهنة حيث يعيش أهل السنة بين مطرقة الأمريكان وسندان إيران وحكومتها في العراق وميليشياتها

لكن ، وبسبب عدم توحد المجاهدين ، ظهرت عدة أعراض مرضية وأخذت تنمو لتظهر آثارها على الساحة العراقية ويتضرر منها أهل السنة على الخصوص ، ومن هذه الأعراض :

- توجه الجماعات نحو التفكك إلى وحدات صغيرة بدل التكتل
- ظهور اجتهادات تشرع للتفكك وتبرر له (شرعية أو عسكرية)
- أزمات بين الجماعات وعداوات بسبب تنقلات بعض الكتائب بين الجماعات
- ظهور رموز وقدوات سيئة تمت مباركتها من العلماء القاعدين المشهورين
- تحول بعض الجماعات إلى ممارسة "العمل اليومي" والتخطيط لـ "اليوميات" بدل التخطيط البعيد المدى والسعي لتطوير الجهاد
- انحراف بعض الجماعات عن الجهاد وتحولها إلى : العملية السياسية أو عصابات تقاتل تحت راية أمريكا أو مليشيات لا تدري فيم تقتُل وفيم تقتَل سعيا وراء لقمة العيش


ونأخذ كمثال على تراجع المسيرة الجهادية وتعثرها ، تطور عدد العمليات للجماعات العراقية خلال أربع أسابيع : 1) قبل سنة ونصف 2) قبل سنة 3) قبل ستة أشهر 4) قبل أسبوع







ما معنى هذا التراجع ؟
- ضعف مساحة العمل وتزايد الضغوطات الأمنية على الجماعات ، فتحولت العمليات من الكم إلى الكيف وأصبح تنفيذ أي عملية خطوة استخباراتية بالدرجة الأولى
- توقف العمليات في عدة ولايات كانت مركز قوة الجماعات ورافدا لباقي المناطق

ما أسبابه ؟
1 - الأسباب الحقيقية :
- الاختلاف والأطماع الشخصية لقادة الجماعات العراقية
- خذلان الفصائل لبعضها في الأزمات والصمت على ما تعرضت له القاعدة رهبا وطمعا ، ثم أصبح الجميع يتلظى من نفس النار
- الانحراف عن معاني الجهاد الحقيقي إلى اجتهادات مؤقتة بدعوى المصلحة ، مما قد يخرج القتال عن غايته { وَقَاتِلُوهُمْ حَتَّى لاَ تَكُونَ فِتْنَةٌ وَيَكُونَ الدِّينُ كُلُّهُ لِلّه }
- طلب النصر من عند غير الله ، باتباع الطرق الديمقراطية أو التكنوقراطية أو الاستعانة بالحكومات العربية المرتدة
2 - الأسباب العرضية :
- تعلم الأمريكان واستفادتهم من تجربة السنوات الماضية وتأقلمهم مع أساليب الجماعات الجهادية
- ظهور مشاريع عراقية مناهضة للجهاد تحت دعاوى الحرب ضد الإرهاب القاعدي

ما علاجه ؟
- عمل ميثاق تنخرط فيه كل الجماعات الجهادية ويضم الخطوط العريضة للمواقف الأساسية التي يجب على الجميع الالتزام بها : 1) الموقف من الاحتلال 2) الموقف من العملية السياسية 3) الموقف من إيران
- التعاون العسكري بين الجماعات وعقد اتفاقات نصرة وأحلاف توجب المناصرة بالقول والفعل ضد كل من يخرج على الخط الجهادي سواء من الصحوات أو المجاهدين السابقين
- إحياء العمل بمشاريع مجالس الشورى بين المجاهدين
- الأخذ على أيدي المفسدين من قادة الجماعات أو أخذ موقف واضح وصريح -على الأقل- من كل الجماعات التي تخرج عن نهج الجهاد وتنضم للعملية السياسية

هل الوضع سيء لهذه الدرجة ؟
هذا الموضوع في التنبيه على أمور ، ولغة الأرقام لا تكذب ، فإذا تأخر النصر فيجب علينا أن نسأل أنفسنا أين أخطأنا !
فالله العليم الحليم لا يظلم عنده أحد مثقال ذرة ، وإذا أصلحنا من أنفسنا وعملنا بمقتضى ما شرعه لنا من الأخوة الإيمانية وتوحيد الصف وترك الخلاف فسيتنزل علينا النصر وتثبت أقدامنا ، وإلا فإننا على خطر .. وأخشى ما أخشاه أن يتحول انتصارنا في العراق من نصر لأمة إلى نصر لأفراد !
نصر الأفراد هو ما نراه الآن ، فالمجاهد يخرج يقاتل فيقتل فيدخل الجنة وهذا هو النصر الفردي
أما نصر الأمة فهو علو كلمة الله تعالى ونزول كلمة الكفر ، ولا يكون ذلك إلا بشوكة للمسلمين ، ولا تكون الشوكة إلا بالاجتماع
أما إن كانت كل جماعة تظن أنها الأحق ولا تسعى في الاجتماع سعيا حقيقيا بالتنازل عن الشروط المعجزة التي وضعتها بعض الجماعات وبترك الأعذار القبيحة لعدم الاجتماع ، فنسأل الله الرحمة .



ويجب على كل مجاهد أن يعلم أن الاحتلال في العراق لم يكن ليستمر لولا تفرق المجاهدين فعلى كل واحد أن يسعى بما يستطيع للم الشمل وتوحيد الكلمة ومحاربة الأفكار التي تهدم الجهاد مثل العصبية للقبيلة أو للجماعة ،
وليعلم كل قائد أنه مسؤول عما استرعاه الله من أمانة ستسأله الأمة كلها غدا عنها ، ماذا عملت لننتصر ؟ هل تركت آكد الواجبات بتوحيد الصف بينما سهرت الليالي من أجل التخطيط لعملية تظنها تجلب النصر ؟!

النصر بيد الله سبحانه وتعالى ومخطئ وضال من يحسب أنه يجلب النصر بعملية يقوم بها أو بخطة يعدها ، فنحن مطالبون بالأسباب والله الناصر
قال تعالى : { وَمَا النَّصْرُ إِلاَّ مِنْ عِندِ اللّهِ الْعَزِيزِ الْحَكِيمِ } . أي أن الله يؤتي النصر من يشاء وليس النصر بكثرة الجند أو العدة
وقال تعالى : { يَا أَيُّهَا الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا إِن تَنصُرُوا اللَّهَ يَنصُرْكُمْ وَيُثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَكُمْ } . وكيف ننصر الله ونحن لا نلتزم أهم أوامره ونترك ما يحبه ؟!
قال تعالى : { إِنَّ اللَّهَ يُحِبُّ الَّذِينَ يُقَاتِلُونَ فِي سَبِيلِهِ صَفًّا كَأَنَّهُم بُنيَانٌ مَّرْصُوصٌ } . جاء في تفسير الجلالين : ( { إن الله يحب } ينصر ويكرم { الذين يقاتلون في سبيله صفا } حال، أي صافين { كأنهم بنيان مرصوص } ملزق بعضه إلى بعض ثابت. )

ومن أعظم المزالق أن يظن المجاهد أنه خير من عدوه فلا ينتصر عليه ، بل قد يسلط اللهُ تعالى الكفارَ على خيار المسلمين بذنوبهم ومعاصيهم وتركهم بعض الواجبات كما جاء عن عمر بن الخطاب رضي الله عنه : " ولا تقولوا إن عدونا شر منا، فلن يسلطوا علينا وإن أسأنا، فرب قوم سلط عليهم شر منهم، كما سلط على بني إسرائيل لما عملوا بمعاصي الله كفرة المجوس "
ولا أرى واجبا في حق المجاهدين في العراق آكد من قوله تعالى : { وَأَطِيعُواْ اللّهَ وَرَسُولَهُ وَلاَ تَنَازَعُواْ فَتَفْشَلُواْ وَتَذْهَبَ رِيحُكُمْ وَاصْبِرُواْ إِنَّ اللّهَ مَعَ الصَّابِرِينَ }
( { وأطيعوا الله ورسوله ولا تنازعوا } تختلفوا فيما بينكم { فتفشلوا } تجبنوا { وتذهب ريحكم } قوتكم ودولتكم { واصبروا إن الله مع الصابرين } بالنصر والعون . ) [تفسير الجلالين]



هذا وإني أعلم أن المبتدئين من المجاهدين يعلمون هذه الأمور لكني أذكرهم بأن العلم للعمل ، فلا تعملوا ببعض ما علمتم وتتركوا آكده إن كان شاقا أو فيه ترك هوى

اللهم انصر المجاهدين في كل مكان
الله أقم علم الجهاد واقمع سبيل الغي والفساد
اللهم ألف قلوب المجاهدين وأنزل عليهم السكينة ورحمة بها يتراحمون
والحمد لله رب العالمين

أخوكم/ درع لمن وحد

10:37 PM, May 15, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Most revolutionary attempts are begun by youth and end with the aging of their erstwhile youthful mentors.

10:39 PM, May 15, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

thank you TG!! (thumbsup)

great news (which par their course, we
will not be hearing about via the MSM)!!

==

10:42 AM, May 16, 2008

 
Anonymous gj said...

Dramatic confirmation of the success of the surge.

Nibras, it would be great if you could translate the two charts and post them up so people like moi can fwd them on to others.

We have waited 5 years for this.

cheers gj

3:18 PM, May 16, 2008

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

On the ground and in the clouds, AQ is meeting with defeat and disaster wherever it turns. That's no more than it deserves, of course.

12:53 AM, May 17, 2008

 
Anonymous j_o_n said...

Hi Nibras: someone else made this comment in another thread but I just wanted to repeat how impressed I am when the things you write are consistently dismissed as ludicrous and then months later are confirmed by the same people who dismissed you in the first place. That is a very impressive track record and I am proud to have been a loyal reader from the beginning!

5:49 PM, May 18, 2008

 
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Blogger ChrisLA said...

There is an excellent book on this subject -- "Chasing a Mirage - The Tragic Illusion of an Islamic State," by Tarek Fatah (a Muslim). In it he surveys the recent (and historic) attempts to establish Islamic governments and their utter failure. He recommends that Muslims focus on the state of Islam rather than the Islamic state.

7:31 AM, May 20, 2008

 
Blogger KarmiCommunist said...

Excellent job Nibras...once again!!!

8:25 PM, May 20, 2008

 
Anonymous Jerry e said...

I don't know why big media is referred to as "Main Street Media". A more appropriate term would be "Propoganda Press" since that is really what the "Main Street Media" does best: propagandize.

6:43 AM, May 21, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

HOOAH! Outstanding, Nibras!

The dwindling coverage by the MSM is indirect correlation to success against the Islamofascist slugs in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Figures.

9:39 AM, May 21, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Thanks, all!

Y'know, it is often the case that when I go back and re-read my earlier stuff, I get a little red with embarassment. But once in a while I find something and I go: "Wow, did I really write this?"

I felt this way about a column from way back in Oct. '05, Calling All Caliphs:

http://talisman-gate.blogspot.com/2005/10/calling-all-caliphs.html

It has a brief summary of the history of the caliphate for those of you interested in this stuff. And I think my prediction, two and a half years ago, was right.

Best,

Nibras

11:08 AM, May 21, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great post! Unfortunately so many never took the time to find out what al Qaedas true goals were. There was an excellent research paper done by some Harvard folks, complete with graphs, showing the correlation between the MSMs negative reporting and spikes in attacks. Solo

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