Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

How the Outcome in Sadr City Led to Today’s Clashes in Beirut

The Siniora cabinet and the March 14 political coalition that props it up have been doing and saying many provocative things from Hezbollah’s vantage point over the last two years from, yet Hezbollah chose to be provoked yesterday and today; why is that?

Ostensibly, Hezbollah is responding to the Lebanese government’s decision to sack the security chief of Beirut’s international airport, and to dismantle Hezbollah’s secure landline-based communications network that had been expanded recently.

What could have spurred-on this over-reaction on Hezbollah’s part, which has been manifested so far with flexing its muscles in the Sunni area of Beirut, seemingly showing-up the government as weak and vulnerable?

I believe Iran needed to show the United States and its Arab allies that it can humiliate them by overrunning the government they back in Beirut and that they’d be unable to do anything about it, and I believe that Iran needed to make this point now because the Mahdi Army in Iraq has collapsed.

Iran has been backing certain factions of the Mahdi Army with training and arms as an investment in a force for chaos, which can be held in reserve and unleashed against the Americans in Iraq in the event that George Bush may order a bombing run against Iran’s illicit nuclear program this summer—something he’s be egged-on to do by U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.

Iran’s earlier acolytes such as the Hakim family had comfortably nestled into the very fabric of the Iraqi state, and could not be counted on to be Iran’s agents of disorder—especially since they now enjoyed financial independence from Iran by their exposure to Iraq’s own ample resources. Iran needed a different, more desperate beast to do its bidding, thus the ‘Special Groups’, as they Iranian-managed offshoots of the al-Sadr’s rag-tag Mahdi Army are called, were conveniently cobbled together from the gangsters and hoodlums of Iraq’s dislocated Shia masses.

But ever since Prime Minister Maliki launched Operation Cavalry Charge on March 25 in Basra, the Iraqi government, with some U.S. air cover and logistical support, has been engaged in a war of attrition with the Mahdi Army; witling away the once-sharp and threatening capability of Iran’s investment in terror. Whereas these ‘Special Groups’ could launch 30 to 40 projectiles into the Green Zone a few weeks ago, today they can only manage one or two rockets. The Iraqi Army and the US military have pushed on into all the redoubts of the Sadrists, notably Sadr City where some 1200 fatalities (a significant number of them non-combatants) have occurred.

Maliki has also ordered the Iraqi Red Crescent to prepare an initial contingency plan to absorb 100,000 refugees from Sadr City, indicating that he is not backing down. Moreover, there’s word from parliament that the government has asked for the removal of legal immunity from several parliamentarians, some of whom are Sadrists, over charges of inciting violence against government troops. Particularly vulnerable is Sadrist MP Baha’ al-‘Araji.

Clearly, Maliki feels that he’s come out on top in his scuffle with the Sadrists, and recent confrontations in Basra, Kut, Hillah, Shatrah, Karbala, Shula City (Baghdad), Nassiriya and Suq al-Shuyukh have shown that the Sadrists are no match for the Iraqi Army and police who continue to arrest Sadrist leaders and evict the movement from its offices.

The Sadrists and the Iranians have been reduced to bravado and PSY-OPS: one account has it that the Sadrists have a plan to take over the Green Zone within seven hours, and that they can take over Basra within 24 hours. Another is that General Suleimani of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard actually controls events in Iraq.

But in effect, Iran has lost the deterrence value of its investment in the Sadrists.

That’s why Iran needed to flex its might in downtown Beirut, to embarrass the Saudis and others who can do very little to bail-out Siniora’s government. The ruse seems to have worked: Saad al-Hariri basically rescinded the government’s orders against the airport security chief and the communications network today.

55 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saad al-Hariri basically rescinded the government’s orders against the airport security chief and the communications network today.

What the hell are you talking about you lying idiot?

1:40 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Blogger Howie said...

We're hearing that Abu Ayyub al-Masri aka Abu Hamza al-Muhajir was captured?

Reckon that's true?

2:29 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

thanks TG..

what do you make of this??

==

3:50 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

Howie @ 2:29..

HT : TLWJ (Roggio)

Abu Ayyub al Masri, al Qaeda in Iraq’s
leader, reported captured in Mosul


excerpt:

[The Iraqi military claimed Abu Ayyub al Masri, al Qaeda in Iraq’s leader, has been captured in the northern city of Mosul in Ninewa province. The US military has not confirmed the report of al Masri’s capture. Al Masri's capture would provide a potential intelligence boon on al Qaeda's network in Iraq and its connections to the international organization.

Defense Ministry spokesman Mohammed al Askari said al Masri’s capture was “confirmed to him by the Iraqi commander of the province,” The Associated Press reported. The person believed to be al Masri has been transferred to US custody for identification, according to Askari. Al Masri’s capture was also announced on Iraqiya Television, the state-run TV network, AP reported.]

==

3:53 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Blogger Tom W. said...

Great article.

If you go onto YouTube and look up videos of the Iran-Iraq War, you'll see amazing examples of Persian jingoism in the comments.

It must absolutely kill the mullahs that the despised Iraqis are throwing off Iranian influence.

CNN of all places reported that the Coalition-trained Iraqi Special Forces are now the equal of American, British, and European units.

These are the men (and women, if reports are to be believed) who are fighting the Iranians in Operation Cavalry Charge.

Go, Iraqis. Git some.

May the Islamic Republic of Iran collapse soon.

5:20 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

when you say "non-combatants" im assuming you mean "civilians"?

5:20 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Anonymous gj said...

Persians are skilled chess players!

btw, the Iraqi army seems to be doing better and better with every day that passes, Nibras. When d'you think they'll be ready to take on Saudi Arabia?????!!!!

6:09 PM, May 08, 2008

 
Blogger Soldier's Dad said...

"Persians are skilled chess players!"

Let's review..we are headed to "High Tourism" season...something which accounts for a significant portion of Lebanese GDP and Hezbollah acts up to please its Iranian masters.

They may have pleased their Iranian masters...but they upset everyone in Lebananon that was hoping for a nice profitable tourist season.

What did one Anbarian Shiek have to say about AlQueda...ohh I remember..."They are bad for business".

Hezbollah has once again demonstrated that they are Bad for Lebanese business.

8:51 AM, May 09, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

Hezballah Takes Western Beruit

lets see now,

Hamas takes Gaza,

Hezbollah takes Beruit,

Palestine & Lebanon in worse
shape than Iraq, go figure..

==

9:00 AM, May 09, 2008

 
Blogger Don Cox said...

"when you say "non-combatants" im assuming you mean "civilians"?"_______Most of the combatants are civilians too.

9:47 AM, May 09, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Thanks don cox, that's what I wanted to say too.

Best,

Nibras

10:04 AM, May 09, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

re: bg @ 3:53 PM..

here we go again..

US military denies Iraqi claims of al-Qaida leader's arrest

hmm, think i'm going to stick with the premise that it's
not wise to alert ones enemies as to your advantage..

==

btw: having a real heck of a time posting via blogger today, gah!! anyone else??

==

1:30 PM, May 09, 2008

 
Blogger BrianFH said...

Yeah, "civilians" is a fuzzball of a word these days. Formally, anyone not a uniformed member of a state security or military force. Pragmatically, anyone not actively involved in armed conflict or criminal violence. In this case, even sworn AQ and JAM members are formally civilians, but pragmatically are nothing of the sort. They are generally guilty of the Geneva war crime, "pefidy", pretense of being civilians and use of civilians as shields.

bg; yeah, slow and balky.

2:02 PM, May 09, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Would "unarmed civilians" work?

9:40 PM, May 09, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

Anonymous @ 9:40 PM..

oh i have no doubt some were, as that's who these terrorist combatants hide amongst, not to mention outright murder in their spare time anyways.. duh!!

==

9:54 PM, May 09, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

not my point. my point is that these categories are important to distinguish. not a single "unarmed civilian" should be lumped in with the rest--and often in the case of writing on 'combatants' etc the categories arent clarified properly--or in my opinion, humanistically.

10:56 PM, May 09, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"when you say "non-combatants" im assuming you mean "civilians"?"

non combatant is a technical term.
Look it up in the GCIV (4th Geneva convention).

11:01 PM, May 09, 2008

 
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