Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Apologies, and a quick note

So I'm finally in a place where I can rest a bit, and have some more time for blogging.

But here's a quick note on all that's happening in Iraq concerning the Provincial Elections Law, the Oil Law, and Kirkuk: the question that everyone should be asking is "Will this political turmoil lead to violence?" and answer is that the potential for increased violence in minimal.

It's politics, folks. Why should Americans involve themselves in the nitty-gritty details of Iraqi politics? It is all being sorted out in heated bargaining and deal-making. Should Iraqis concern themselves with the pork-barreling and congressional re-districting of the U.S. Congress? No, they shouldn't.

The Iraq story is getting boring, and that's a good thing. The 'analysts' and 'experts' who staked their reputations on the idea that Iraq is a failed state are feverishly hoping that the embers of violence would catch fire anew so that a certain presidential candidate may win and they'd get to keep their fake status of self-styled 'expertise'. My own reading of the situation is that is futile to go delving into the ashes of a failed insurgency that hasn't got the wherewithal to burst aflame again.


Blogger bg said...


thanks for op TG..

i love how you state facts.. :)


8:11 AM, August 12, 2008

Anonymous amagi said...


Most excellent to have you back. I want very much to trust your analysis, and I mean to be taken seriously when I say that you have become the single most credible source of information on Iraqi goings-on I have access to.

At the same time, there is that strain of political thought which suggests that revolutions and the like occur not when a regime is at its most brutal, but rather once change and reform has been promised, but is too slow in coming.

I consistently see reports that the so-called Sons of Iraq now number about 100,000 and are getting the run-around as to how and when they will be "folded in." My understanding of rhetoric out of Kirkuk is that opposing factions are essentially unwilling to sit down with each other, and that they are only being kept in the same room together by US pressure. I know only too well how news sources twist narratives to emphasize gloom and doom, but at the same time (in this instance at least) their pessimistic assessment sounds plausible to me.

I realize I don't have all the facts; but then, that's why I'm here.

The Iraq story isn't getting boring to me at all. Actually, quite the contrary. Watching a democratic nation wrestle itself into existence from the abyss of nihilism and chaos has been an exhilirating experience. I deeply, deeply resent the extent to which the American public seems oblivious to the importance of this event and the ramifications a free Iraq has for the rest of the world. I've been cheering all along, but too often in a vaccuum or alongside people who are, in essence, applauding for the wrong reasons.

In any event, I anxiously await some reliable news, be it good or ill, and have my fingers crossed.

10:20 AM, August 12, 2008

Blogger David M said...

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 08/12/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.

11:50 AM, August 12, 2008

Blogger Whifferdill said...

Boring politics is very good.

Hats off to you for sharing your knowledge of your country so well that you convinced us we were correct in thinking the war would indeed be won!

Enjoy peace.

11:55 AM, August 12, 2008

Anonymous Kafir said...


I'm with Amagi. I still find the unfolding story fascinating. I think it is like watching America develop in the 19th century.

I do believe there's one thing that can make embers burst into flames again, and that's a strong breeze. The whoosh as the Americans stream out of there under a President Obama's plan just might do it.

4:55 PM, August 12, 2008

Blogger Mark said...

Amagi's comments are on target. The Bolsheviks liked having a failing, floundering government in place to overthrow.

Thanks for posting again. And I hope you are correct!

7:36 AM, August 13, 2008

Anonymous gj said...

Dear Nibras,

Your devoted commenters are not the slightest bit bored with the Iraq story. On the contrary, we thirst for the nitty, gritty details of Iraqi politcs. And you are the only person we get them from!

Please keep us up with the news from the smoke filled rooms.



2:58 PM, August 13, 2008

Blogger Jaguar b. p. said...

The 'analysts' and 'experts' who staked their reputations on the idea that Iraq is a failed state are feverishly hoping that the embers of violence would catch fire anew so that a certain presidential candidate may win

And now that's all been thwarted and McCain will win (not).

3:00 AM, August 16, 2008

Anonymous amagi said...


The news is growing worse with each passing day. We have a dismal New York Times article today suggesting that, essentially, the Kurds have no interest in anything but fighting for the province, and AP reporting that Maliki is ordering targeted crackdowns on sahwa members as a prelude to their forced disbanding.

Given the profound inability for these sources to provide accurate information thus far, I am still willing to believe that things are not the way they are being made to appear. If something different is going on, we need to know from you because it certainly isn't getting reported anywhere else.

12:02 PM, August 19, 2008

Blogger CK MacLeod said...

McClatchy's also picked up on a looming conflict with disbanded "Sons of Iraq," quoting US officers and Sunni leaders who suggest the possibility of a renewed insurgency, with ex-insurgents rejecting the minimal and demeaning employment opportunities being offered to them.

Made it sound dire (of course), and pointed to November 1 as a deadline. I also came here on the off chance of finding some thoughts on the subject.

11:03 PM, August 20, 2008

Blogger Don Cox said...

While we are waiting for Nibras to post again, may I recommend this excellent blog. It is about the Provincial Recovery Teams.

4:42 AM, August 23, 2008

Blogger bg said...


Don Cox @ 4:42 AM..

thank you.. :)

more here..

also be sure to check out..





11:09 AM, August 23, 2008

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