Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Bob Baer is a Gullible Fool

It seems that former CIA agent Bob Baer has authored a really stupid book about Iran, which is not surprising since he has a tendency for being really stupid. At least that’s what some former associates of mine who had worked at close quarters with him thought of Baer: he was an object of ridicule among INC folk.

But he’s managed to make a name for himself as some sort of grand strategist for the Middle East. I didn’t mind when his books bad-mouthed the Saudis, but now that his new book ‘The Devil We Know’ is all about sweet-talking the Iranians, then I feel it is time to relate a Bob Baer anecdote that I had kept to myself and that, at least in my eyes, exposes Baer for the light-weight and unprincipled blowhard that he is.

Back in 2000 or 2001, before Baer got his first book published, and when he was still an unemployable and disgruntled ex-spook with an aversion to showers, razor blades and human contact, a through-and-through mercenary for the Saddam regime by the name of Ali Ballout, a Lebanese Shia ‘propagandist’ and one-time resident of Paris, figured out a new way to get paid: he would start a Middle East consultancy based in Washington DC, whose public façade would be a website called ‘East West Record,’ to lobby on Saddam’s behalf among America’s politicians and bureaucrats.

‘East West Record’ would be registered under the name of Ali Ballout’s wife, Samia Baalbaki, and would hire his daughter Rana as its ‘Beirut Correspondent’. A cursory Nexis-Lexis search would have churned out press reports, in English, going back to the late 1970s that pegged Ballout as an agent for Saddam’s mukhaberat, or intelligence service.

So it wouldn’t have taken a CIA-trained super-spy to discover that Ballout was on Saddam’s payroll, since anyone rummaging through the public record would have been able to figure that one out easily.

To cut a long story short, ‘East West Record’ listed a Washington phone number.

So guess who was working as Ballout’s receptionist? Why, it was none other than Mr. Bob Baer!

Baer allegedly wrote up many analysis reports for the paying patrons of East West Record’s consultancy services. I wonder if he knew whether or not Saddam’s spies could have been perusing his reports; I wonder if he was gullible enough to ever believe that Mr. Ballout had changed his spots and gone legit.

It seemed that Baer only worked for Ballout for a couple of months, and then went on to publish his first book. East West Record petered out as suspicion over its associations grew in DC.

It later transpired, when Saddam’s secret archives were searched, that Mr. Ballout received plenty of those notorious ‘oil coupons’ that Saddam had been using to compensate his minions and those doing his bidding overseas.

I’d really like Bob Baer to come out and deny all of this, but I’d just like to let him know that only idiots give out their real names over the phone when prompted to.

So why would it be that anyone would take the word of a washed-up spy who fell so low so as to accept a paycheck from one of his country’s most horrendous enemies is beyond me. Did I mention that Baer is now saying that America should negotiate with Iran and learn to live with, and grow to love, an Iranian nuclear bomb?

Isn’t that what Obama is saying too? I wonder if Obama’s been benefiting from Baer’s consultancy services as of late…

UPDATE:

Oh, I forgot to let you know why I got on this whole Bob Baer thing in the first place: read the excellent column, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Triumpth, by the excellent WSJ columnist Bret Stephens.

56 Comments:

Anonymous crude analysis said...

why do you enjoy "outing" people so much? as if your analysis is objective and not biased....

and why aren't you in iraq right now? did things not go as planned? was baghdad not as safe for you as you thought it was and continue to pretend that it is? you couldn't handle the true rough and tough of iraqi politics? why have you been forced to settle to being holed up in a neo-con think tank in washington? you're in the position to add so much to the debate, but you decide not to. you've decided that it's better to "out" various folks in washington, without contributing anything of your own to the debate. worst of all, you get personal. it doesn't help your arguments at all. and you discourage people from having a frank discussion about important issues that we all care about and want to learn more about. why? why are you so defensive and personal? it probably says something about the kind of person you are. i wouldn't be surprised if you speak strong words behind your keyboard holed up in your little think tank, but when it comes to the real world, you can't handle it. but just keep on spewing your "expert knowledge" and your hate, you freedom fighter you.

7:21 AM, September 23, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi "crude analysis",

So I'm no longer a dumb conservative who keeps falling off tanks, but rather a cowardly neocon who starts fires around the world and then flees to the safety of a DC think-tank.

Fine, I'll be whatever you want me to be, as long as you don't have to think about what I'm saying. I accept your verdict: I'm the worse kind of human being in the world. Happy now?

As for substansive and important issues, well, I really don't have the energy to debate a guy who only gets riled up and begins posting when I take Obama's Holy Name in vain. Judging by your blog, you are not intellectually intense or original, and hence the prospect of debating you is unappealing; it would be mind-numbingly boring. You can go peruse the archives of this blog on your own. I stand by every thing I've written, by every prediction I've made.

But what you have dodged is whether I had pegged you correctly in the previous discussion thread: y'know, "twenty something grad student", ...etc. Was it a hit or a miss?

Best,

Nibras

7:43 AM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

"Judging by your blog, you are not intellectually intense or original, and hence the prospect of debating you is unappealing; it would be mind-numbingly boring." .... why are you such a dick? let's just say that i'm not much younger than you are. and unlike you, perhaps i'm in a position where i'd rather remain anonymous so it doesn't conflict with work that i'm doing now or in the future. obviously the sleaziness of the hudson institute and the new york sun allow you to spew your hate whenever and however you want. keep in mind that you're still only 32 and not a 50 something Iraqi scholar. and you graduated from brandeis, and i didn't. you learned from the best of them, indeed. and keep in mind that my blog isn't everything that i do, it's not my only contribution to the world, and it doesn't define me. so just remain holed up in your little cubicle at hudson, afraid to speak, afraid of the country you freed from an evil dictator, and free to hide behind your little computer and spew hate, nonsense, and lies.

8:06 AM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

so i guess the email lovefest went sour btw you two?

9:11 AM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

unfortunately, i'm not intellectually stimulating enough for our esteemed world scholar here, "dr." kazimi. and he mostly does all of this for show. he doesn't actually come out of his office and interact with real people. he doesn't actually want to have an honest discussion about the issues. he prefers to sit behind his computer screen at hudson and personally attack people to try to substantiate his arguments. he's a fraud, a liar, and a dick.

9:29 AM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aren't we touchy.

10:53 AM, September 23, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Dear "crude analysis",

So I'm thinking that I got most, or maybe even all, of these points right about you, even though you've chosen to remain anonymous:

"I'd say that you're a twenty-something graduate student at a not-so-hot college, probably the understudy of some 'expert' that may been targeted on the pages of this blog or is about to be; you have meager Arabic skills; you've spent a year abroad in an irrelevant Middle Eastern country (...at least to the topic you claim to analyze: oil); and for someone who's spent very little time out there in the practical world, you think you've got all the answers and it is only a matter of time before you'd march off into the sunset and begin fixing all that ails the world."

So that explains your messy unraveling, and those outbursts of shrill ranting and hysterics above. But now that you've erratically revealed your vulnerabilities, I actually feel bad about bullying you too harshly.

Look, I think it's cute that you're out to avenge the honor of your wimpy mentor who can't do so on his own, and it's quaint that you seek to do battle against us evil neocons. But c'mon, is railing against the neocons really that original?

My issue with your thinking patterns and the quality of your blog is that it is all so depressingly generic. Don't get me wrong, "generic" will carry you far in DC, and it is always smart to play it safe and be one with the crowd. But I think you're going to be a member of new generation of Middle East-watchers that shall witness a whole set of game-changers in the region; ones that will re-shape the Middle East as we know it over the next 15-25 years. Are you guys ready? Will you be sufficienty trained for the deluge? Are you going to be scape-goated by the bureaucrats and the higher-ups for the ensuing mega-mess, and for not seeing it coming?

Look kid, you've got moxy. You've got spunk. Don't allow that to die out. The evidence for that is that you came back with calling me a "dick". That's good, that's a fighting spirit. I like that. I don't blame you for your blinders; academia has been training you to toe the line of mediocrity. Parroting conventional wisdom is rewarded with a cracker, and a passing grade. The set-up is indeed stacked against free thinking, because it was erected by mediocre thinkers.

But you need to examine your inflexibility and self-righteousness: are these your ideas, or have you been conditioned by your trainers to react this way?

I wish you the best on your journey, but I ain't got the resources, neither the time nor the appropriate structures and dissemination channels, to provide guidance. All I hope to do with this blog is to sound the alarm to whoever wishes to be alerted by it. I sincerely believe that what comes next will be a lot worse. I'm hoping that some like-minded people will coalesce around these unconventional ways out of the problems to come so that when they do come, faster solutions can be found.

Best,

Nibras

12:54 PM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

Nibras,

Some of your points about me were correct. But I wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions about what each of them mean as far as what I think or what I'm doing now or what I'm trying to do in the future.

This isn't about "avenging the honor" of a mentor. For one, I have no mentor. My more sober points toward your posts were simply suggestions. I do believe you have a lot to offer, but limiting yourself to "outing" various individuals and sending personal attacks toward others isn't the best way to go about it. But it's your blog, so do as you wish.

And two, everything in this world isn't about avenging honor. Little of what I say or do can be explained by my desire to take vengeance against the wrongdoer. Through your Iraqi experience, you may feel more inclined to live by this motto. But that's not how I operate and that's not how everything has to operate. Much of what you appear to have done in your life and what you've said in your blog in past archives seem to be about avenging things that have happened in the past. But this isn't why I've recently been active on your blog.

To judge my opinions or who I am by my blog are also misguided. While I can understand where you're coming from, and I will admit that many of my posts are fairly generic, it's also about the audience I'm trying to reach. I only started blogging at the end of June. Unfortunately, I haven't cracked into the Washington blogosphere. For that reason, and others, it has largely remained simple and generic. I come from small-town America, and was fortunate enough to be one of the very few that have had the opportunity to get out and try to fulfill my dreams elsewhere. Traveling to an "irrelevant" Middle East country a few years ago inspired me to take things further. We all have to start somewhere, and that's certainly not where I plan to end it. My real point is that most of what I write on my blog is read by folks that aren't from here, don't breathe the Middle East or politics in general, but seem to benefit and enjoy what I have to say about various issues. Additionally, I'm also trying to ensure that there is no overlap or interference with the full-time work that I do.

While I was hoping to say more, I think I'll end it there. My apologies for taking a few things too far, but hopefully you can now understand a little more about where I'm coming from. Maybe not, but that's ok too. I look forward to learning from your work and engaging with you in a more civilized fashion in the future.

Best,
"Crude Analysis"

1:43 PM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous der_der said...

Hey 'crude':- you came here to heckle Nibras cause he's a 'sleazy' neo-con in your opinion. But isn't hiding behind anonymity a 'sleazy' thing to do?

Nibras:- Your abilities never cease to amaze. Not only can you tell what is going to happen in Iraq a few months in advance of anyone but you also seem to be a mind-reader too! You summed-up crude's life story without even knowing who he is, and he admits it too. That is pretty freaky, man! The neo-con cabal trained you well ;)

7:38 PM, September 23, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

der_der,

you missed my explanation for remaining anonymous and i'm not going through it again. the definition of a man isn't whether they stay anonymous or not as a blogger. it doesn't make a difference one way or another. who i am doesn't matter. and as i said, some of what he guessed was correct. but half of it wasn't. and the half that was correct, doesn't automatically mean what he thinks it means. this argument is done here.... hopefully. just trying to make sure it doesn't keep going. it's pointless and a waste of time.

5:54 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous der_der said...

You are a little snit aren't you? "this argument is done here".

No it isn't. You are a heckler. At first you were pretending to be objective but then you're extreme biases against Nibras were exposed by your crazy rants.

Out of curiosity, which parts were correct and which parts weren't? Or will revealing that blow your super-secret agent cover?

GROW UP!!! You give yourself too much importance.

7:46 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

ok, now is the time that nibras' entourage of supporters starts to attack me. that's fine though.

first off, i gave myself no importance. and i am not a heckler. i made a few comments about some of his previous posts and he got personal about what i knew, how bad my blog is, etc. he got personal and then so did i. and yes, revealing anything will indeed blow my top-secret agent cover. who i am isn't what matters. i'm not sure why so many blog "commenters" get so wrapped up in who someone might be in real life.

8:07 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous der_der said...

Poor little you. We should add 'victim complex' to your list of delusions.

Nibras said your blog was generic and boring. The harshest term he used to describe you was 'self-righteous'.

You attacked with words like 'sleazy', 'dick', 'liar', 'fraud'.

You don't own this comments section. I have a right to voice my opinion too. I believe in basic fairness. You were out of line and psychotic. Nibras was very smart in handling you. Stop pretending as if you don't have a pro-Obama agenda. I checked the other posts and found that you only respond when Nibras mentions Obama.

Don't you get it? That many regular Americans find you Obama zealots a little creepy? Relax, man. Stop being cultish and weird.

People like you are the worst kind of advocates for Obama. You probably support him because you are afraid that deep inside you are a racist and you don't want others to suspect that you are a racist. I would say that 50 % of Obama's white hyper-supporters have the same subconscious motive.

8:46 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

you're right; i am racist. i hate white people. i yearn for the day that a black man paints the white house black. i also hope obama creates an alliance with iran and wipes israel off the map.

bling bling,
crude analysis

10:10 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous der_der said...

Oh MY GOD!! What a Freudian slip! You pretended to mis-understand what I had written (that you are a unconscious white racist) and pretended to be a reverse-racist black guy. This means that your unconscious wanted to come clean and tell the world of your hidden racism but since that is unallowable in our PC-mandated world you turned into a joke and still expressed it by telling the world that you are a racist, even after you tried to coat it with humor.

Dude you need therapy pronto! Keep in mind that everytime you tell someone you are supporting Obama then that is a symptom of an obsessive compulsion to give people the impression that you are not a racist. Dude you are messed up inside. You need help.

Now it all makes sense: your obsession with Nibras's pure Iraqi (read Arab Semitic) blood. Your hatred of neo-cons (read Jewish Semitic).

11:02 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous amagi said...

Quiet down, both of you! I can't hear the Iraqi parliament passing the provincial elections law!

11:23 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

errrmm, "crude" don't you have your own blog? then why are you cluttering talismangate with your life story and opinions?

11:25 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

der_der, i think nibras can fight his own battles. i doubt he needs your help. you think you're so on top of your shit and that you've caught me on my own words. ok, whatever you say. does anyone come to this blog that disagrees with nibras on any issue? or do you all just eat it all up and spit it back out? oh, nibras, ohhhhh... right on nibras, right on.... that's fine too, but c'mon.

anonymous... go back to sleep. you haven't missed anything. don't try to catch up now. but if you feel like reading something, feel free to check out my generic and non-intellectually stimulating blog. and sorry anonymous and der_der, i'm not going away. nibras can ban my IP address if he really wants to.

-crude analysis

11:49 AM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"crude analysis,"

Every once in a while, wordsmiths like you make silly mistakes that reveal more about the content of your character than you would wish to volunteer. This, from the horse's mouth, you sir:

"i'm not sure why so many blog "commenters" get so wrapped up in who someone might be in real life."

Real life? I am sorry but we are dealing with real life here... if you see it as mere theater, which it seems that you do, then should Nibras be wasting his time even responding to you?

Maybe the theatrical view from where you sit behind a computer is clear, but to us mortals, we need inside insights into the middle east (like Nibras) in order to make sense of things.

Nibras, I beg you to ignore this kid.

2:59 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

i know it might make some of you feel more important and experienced than you actually are, but please stop referring to me as "kid." based on this standard, some may also refer to nibras as a "kid." as i've mentioned before, at 32, he's not all that much older than myself. i'm already aware that he's lived a lot longer and has been involved in overthrowing more dictators than i have, but this doesn't mean i can't add anything here. i'll admit that i haven't been able to add all that much in the past couple days because of this little spat, but i'd like to have the opportunity to do so in the future. i know this is a lot of fun for some of you, but can we seriously try to get past this and actually talk about something substantive? maybe nibras will post sometime soon to spur some sort of debate.

--crude analysis

3:30 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"crude":- then please do be contructive and tell us how you feel about your candidate Obama acting like a little bitch craving the debate spotlights when he should drag his ass off a florida golf course where he is practising sounding presidential with a speech training instructor and go to washington to do the job he's been elected to do as senator. if he won't do his job as a senator then how is going to do his job as a president????

the mic is all yours, "crude"

3:39 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

fair enough.

please don't tell me that this call for "suspending" the debate is all about the "economic 9/11" and that mccain is standing up as the hero that can single-handedly solve the crisis. nothing john mccain does in the next 40 days is NOT political. keep that in mind. and the same goes for obama. and in this highly partisan atmosphere we're in right now, the democrats will get on mccain for trying to suspend the debate and republicans will get on obama for wanting to have it. if obama came out today and said he wanted to suspend the debate, the mccain campaign would be saying obama is scared to debate, just like he's refused to do town hall meetings. don't get so caught up in the partisan games.

i'm not denying that the financial crisis isn't serious. i'd be a proponent of having the debate but switching the topic to the economy, rather than foreign policy. now is exactly the time we need to hear each of their views and ideas for solutions. personally, i think they could do much more good having the debate in front of 100 million people, rather than going back to washington to try to solve it. neither will actually solve it. they're one senator out of 100. sure, they have a lot of clout right now, but that's not what this call for a suspension is all about. it's 100% political. he's having a bad week or two and he hasn't been able to gain his footing in discussing the economy. he stepped up and is trying to seem like the hero and trying to make obama seem like he's just wanting to play games.

if obama did what mccain did today, i'd be saying the same thing, even though i know that'll be hard for you to believe. not only for the reasons i mentioned above, but probably for selfish reasons. i'm looking forward to spending my friday night watching the debate, don't know about you....

--crude analysis

p.s. and i wonder what "crisis" will happen in alaska next week that will cause palin to "suspend" her debate with biden thursday night? hmmm....

4:19 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjkCrfylq-E&eurl

anonymous -- i know you'll rip on me for it, but watch that video. to be shown on letterman later tonight. i wish i had it when i made my initial post, but i didn't.

7:32 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

oh my oh my, little boy, you are so exasperatingly idiotic and you have nary a clue.

crude, don't give up your day job. i don't think you are cut out for political analysis, or any sort of thinking I'm afraid.

8:53 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous crude analysis said...

i'll take that as a compliment.

thanks,
crude analysis

8:57 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What a pathetic little Obama troll you are. You give me no choice but to reveal your real name.

9:07 PM, September 24, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So crude you endorse Letterman's "I AM A GOLDEN GOD" screed, right? Do you also endorse, as an Obama campaign surrogate, Letterman's blatant misogyny towards women (what he said about Sarah Palin)? Does your girlfriend up north know that you are a creepy little misogynist?

7:22 AM, September 25, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hell hath no fury like a ratings-challenged comedian spurned.

Letterman has forgotten that he's supposed to make us laugh. He is under the impression that he is the one who corronates our next president. Which explains his feud with Oprah, because she too thinks she was divinely chosen for that task.

I watch Conan or Jon Stewart myself. I'm still voting for McCain despite Letterman's anger at being dismissed as the court jester. "Alas poor Yorick, I knew him well, Horatio".

8:14 AM, September 26, 2008

 
Blogger Brian H said...

This is one of the most egregious examples of the highjacking of a comment section by a troll I've ever seen. Crud is a classic.

11:44 PM, September 26, 2008

 
Anonymous mike said...

Instead of taking this generational opportunity of having a Black American candidate running for the presidency to air-out our hidden feelings about race, the American public has chosen to channel its secretly-held racism into other, PC-acceptable forms of bigotry: sexism and regionalism.
'Sarah Palin is a bad driver', 'Sarah Palin is an idiot', 'Sarah Palin is a hick'.
Was anyone more accomplished or smarter than Hillary Clinton? Don’t think so, but it was okay in good society to revile her.
Most white yuppies with Obama lawn signs or bumper-stickers are trying to overcompensate for the forms of racism still stirring within them. They feel guilty when they pretend not to notice an inter-racial couple. And they are conscious that they feel slightly safer when driving through a bad neighborhood if they have an Obama sticker on their car.
Let’s be honest with ourselves for a change.
Sarah Palin is not the fifth cast member of ‘Sex and The City’. She is not a ‘Desperate Housewife’ on Wisteria Lane. She is a different American female role-model, not the one that male entertainment executives in LA and NYC created for your television troughs to feed on.
Too many ’sophisticated’ women invested too much time and money trying to become Carrie Bradshaw (…and they have failed) and now resent that all that effort has gone to waste. I think Maureen Dowd of the New York Times perfectly fits this type-casting: instead of being sexy and cosmopolitan, she now seems sluttly and dated.
Maybe America needs a new role model given its blatant sexism and regionalism. Maybe the New American Woman is all about God, Family, Country and Shot-Guns. Why do you feel so threatened?

2:50 PM, September 29, 2008

 
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Is this what "ANALysis" has come to?

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CORRECTION:

"Poor little you" should read, "Poor Little EWE"

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