Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Bayati dismisses "leaks" about a no-confidence vote in Maliki

Abbas al-Bayati, an MP for the UIA bloc, dismissed any "leaks" about preparations for a no-confidence vote in the Iraqi parliament that may bring down Maliki, according to statements he made today to the Al-Khaber News Agency (Arabic link).

Al-Bayati added that Maliki still enjoys the backing of the political blocs and that "his popularity in the Iraqi street is increasing." Al-Bayati asserted that Maliki will finish out his term.

It should be noted that al-Bayati, the Secretary General of the Islamic Union of Iraqi Turcomans, decided to throw in his lot with Maliki for the provincial elections in January; they are running on the same electoral slate (under the difficult-to-translate name of "State [Governed by] Law Alliance") that rivals that of the Hakim family. So in a sense, al-Bayati's political fortunes are tied to Maliki's.

Al-Bayati is an important component of the Islamist PR machine, so I understand this statement to be a sign that the Maliki camp is indeed very worried about a no-confidence vote.


Anonymous crude analysis said...

Nibras, thanks for sounding the bell.

On Sunday, the Kurdistan Alliance spokesman Firyad Rawanduzi said that despite current differences, there is no Kurdish effort to organize a no-confidence vote against Maliki.

In September, he provided a strong warning to Maliki. "Maliki has to give up his dream of riding the horse of arrogance....The political spring of Maliki may not last long if he sows the seeds of arrogance, which in turn will give life to the thorns of monopoly of power. Frankly speaking, we would like to warn him of the consequences of turning the political spring to a political winter. The coat of government, it should be remembered, does not provide warmth to those who give up their spring in favor of a winter whose consequences cannot be predicted."

Obviously this denial doesn't mean much, but I find his comments to be interesting. Do you make anything of it?

7:23 PM, November 24, 2008

Anonymous crude analysis said...

Maliki had some harsh words for Talabani and the Presidency Council in his press conference at the end of last week. Looking forward to seeing how it all plays out once this security agreement gets approved, if it does. Time to gear up for January, I suppose. Or as you're suggesting, it's about much more than elections, but rather the political life of Maliki.

7:30 PM, November 24, 2008

Anonymous david beckham said...

Firyad Rawanduzi's statements are certainly 100% sanctioned by Talabani, so you should treat them as statements from the President himself. Rawanduzi was (or maybe still is) the editor of the PUK's official Arabic newspaper, al-Ittihad, and is very close with Talabani.

12:00 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous crude analysis said...

I wonder why he would feel the need to come out and say this?

The Kurdish weekly newspaper, Rudaw, reported yesterday that the PUK relations office chief in Baghdad said that it has not yet decided to work for the removal of Maliki and if he isn't willing to leave his post, they would not force him to do so. It also reported that Talabani told the Kurdistan Alliance bloc "not to hurry in collecting signatures for that purpose."

12:27 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous intheloop said...

Rawanduzi's statement is technical. The effort is not Kurdish since Abdelaziz Alhakim is doing it however the Kurds are on board.
Crocker does not mind Abdulmahdi as prime minister. They met yesterday. The plot thickens!

1:21 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous crude analysis said...

From the perspective of the Kurds, how would Abdul-Mahdi be any better than Maliki?

Talabani also met with Maliki yesterday. Talabani's office issued a statement describing Talabani's reception of Maliki as a "warm welcome," pointing to the recent quarrel between the two over support councils. They've obviously decided to put that fight (and others) on hold until the security agreement is passed tomorrow.

1:48 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I find it strange that Talabani and Barazani are playing as the saviours of Iraq. After they got $7billion from the 2008 budget, I would like to know what they did with this money + the money they collect from the borders. Are they buying weapons for the Kurdish army to fight the Iraqi army in the future? I would like to see them resign one day. I only look at them as two warlords who got lucky and get involved in the Iraqi political life. I don't want them to decide the fate of Maliki. Maliki proved to many Iraqis that he is the one to unify Iraq and bring it back to its good days. If people like Talabani and Barazani stopped complaining and start concentrating on building Iraq, then that will be better for the country. If they keep looking only at their interests, then Iraq will not improve.


4:03 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

everyone knows that abdelmehdi is the ally of the kurds. evryone knows this.

4:23 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous crude analysis said...

It's fine to say that "everyone knows this." But how would Abdul-Mahdi be better? What has he done that is indicative of his being a close ally of the Kurds?

6:39 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

every one knows this. it is the a b c of iraqi politics. Everyone knows a b c!!!!

6:43 PM, November 25, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Abdelhehdi loves the Kurds because they both want to separate the areas they control now. The Kurds want the north and Abdlemehdi wants (with his boss Abdleazeez Al Hakeem) the south. When they get the south, Abdlemehdi would go to the Iranians and tell them, look what I got for you. Lets merge the South of Iraq with Iran. This is why Abdlemehdi likes the Kurds. They both have the same plans to divide Iraq.


8:08 PM, November 25, 2008

Blogger Anand said...

The PM's biggest perks are control over the:
1) IA (Iraqi Army)
2) INP (Iraqi National Police)
3) Counter Terrorism Bureau (special forces)

These will soon become the most capable security force in the Arab world. Is the PM using these forces appropriately?

8:46 PM, November 25, 2008

Blogger Unknown said...

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1:42 PM, January 26, 2018


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