Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Ousting Maliki, Maybe (Updated, Sunday, November 23, 2008)

My sources are telling me that serious efforts are underway to introduce a parliamentary no-confidence vote in Maliki’s government sometime in early December.

Supposedly the changes to the cabinet line-up would be minor, substituting Maliki for either Adel Abdel-Mahdi or Ibrahim al-Ja’afari or Ali al-Adeeb (…if Abdel-Mahdi gets it, then either of the other two candidates may take the vice-presidency slot vacated by him), and Hussein al-Shahrestani, the oil minister, for either Nadim al-Jaberi or Ali al-Adeeb (if the latter doesn’t become either the PM or the Vice-President, and conditional on him turning against Maliki, of course).

The thinking, especially from the Kurdish end, is that Maliki has grown too big for his britches. That, and Meghan O’Sullivan is back in the mix of things, forever trying to turn her guy, Abdel-Mahdi, into Mr. PM.

Technically, one would think that the Sunnis would not yield to a Kurdish-led bid to unseat Maliki, given the competition that’s been going on in Mosul and Kirkuk, but weakening an increasingly confident Shia prime minister (…who is trying to build an independent power base among Sunni tribes in Mosul and Kirkuk) is too enticing of a prospect; why putter around in the provinces when taking down Maliki makes Tariq al-Hashemi more politically relevant in Baghdad?

The Hakims want Maliki deflated. The Sadrists and Allawi will not throw him a lifeline. Taking out al-Sharestani weakens Sistani’s direct influence over the cabinet, a development several factions want to see happen. And the no-confidence plotters are aiming to win over al-Adeeb (with some Iranian prodding, it seems) with promises of a bigger role, thereby rupturing the Da’awa Party faction that Maliki now controls. They could also win over Fadhila (or at least the faction that al-Jaberi has managed to rebuild around himself), and the small but symbolic faction of the Da’awa that still shows up to Ja’afari’s dinners.

They may even get Allawi on board by giving him the Vice-Presidency slot, but it isn’t clear whether Allawi will see this as beneath him and reject it. But this would be a complete ejection of the Da’awa Party, in all its factions, from the nexus of alliances that govern Iraqi politics. Either way, Allawi will not cross Barzani.

The votes that may bring Maliki down are there. What saved his behind for the last two years has been the support of Hakim, Barzani and Talabani, or rather their disinterest in removing him after he accidentally became PM through the machinations of Sistani's office in 2006. But Maliki is now trying to project himself as a national leader, and has stepped on too many toes in the process.

Maliki is looking at a very dire picture, and he could do something bold like resigning before getting fired. His excuse for resigning would have something to do with rejecting “too much” federalism, supposedly a popular issue that Iraqi voters in 2009 may reward him for, and then he can come back with his own parliamentary bloc to rival that of those who ousted him.

However, his rivals are also preparing all sorts of things with which to smear him, especially regarding the corruption of his son, Ahmad, and other Maliki staffers.

Maliki derived a big part of his stature from the weekly teleconference he’s been holding with President Bush for the last year or so. That is over now. Maliki may have thought that he’d be the primary beneficiary from the power vacuum that shall be left behind as the Americans recede from Iraq under Obama. But Maliki may not last that long.

People forget that Maliki is not a very sophisticated player. His excessive caution, and occasional flashes of impetuousness, may be analyzed by some as wisdom, and political bravery. I supported what he did in Basra and Sadr City last March through May, because these actions strengthened the Iraqi state. But I still remember him for what he is, a decent man playing a role far too big for his wits.

UPDATE (November 23, 2008):

‘Usama al-Nujeifi, the MP from Allawi’s list, claims that the meeting held in Talabani’s house between the Kurdish bloc and several Arab Sunni blocs on Friday discussed the necessary mechanisms and alliances by which to bring down Maliki through a vote of no-confidence. Al-Nujeifi made these claims today to an Iraqi news wire agency (Arabic link).

This is only partly true: the no-confidence vote was not discussed during the public meeting, but it was certainly in the air.

I guess al-Nujeifi, an MP from Mosul who has been critical of the Kurds and thus implicitly supports Maliki, must have heard about the no-confidence vote from Allawi’s circle.

Al-Nujeifi claims that the Hakims are not on board fully even though they oppose Maliki’s attempts to consolidate power in his office. He also says that the attempt won’t be successful because Maliki enjoys strong popular support (correct) and strong support from the Americans (no longer correct).

Al-Nujeifi is hoping to muddy the waters by making this public statement, with the full intention of derailing the no-confidence vote. That’s wishful thinking on his part. The vocal MPs from Mosul such as himself and Izzeldin al-Dawla (who withdrew from the Consensus bloc over the summer) may support Maliki’s game of chicken with the Kurds, but they do not reflect the overall Sunni position.

A source is telling me that Maliki is counting on Sistani’s support to curb the Hakims from moving against him. But the Hakims are moving against him in a large measure to counter the resurrected influence of Sistani’s office (specifically that of the Grand Ayatollah’s son, Muhammad Ridha) that found its last hurrah (…in my opinion) when it was invited to weigh in on SOFA.

In a funny twist, Maliki is counting on Mowaffeq al-Rubai’i, his National Security Advisor, to convince the Americans to stick by him, but according to one well-placed source, al-Rubai’i has privately signaled, it is alleged, that “maybe Maliki has outlived his usefulness.”

In other news, a piece in the New York Times today caught my eye: James Glanz, a mediocre reporter in the opinion of this blog, writes up a puff piece on Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the sanctimonious and not-at-all helpful IG on Iraqi reconstruction, clearly as a favor for all the negative leaks that Bowen had sent Glanz’s way. But a name appears that seems to be out of place, that of “Namir al-Akabi”, who was referred to earlier on this blog under the spelling Namir Karim al-‘Uqabi. Al-‘Uqabi is a well-heeled multi-multi-millionaire, so why is he trudging around in the dust looking as if he’s an earnest, go-getting subcontractor at a minor construction site, in Ramadi of all places? Al-‘Uqabi is connected to Maliki’s office, and to Nadhmi Auchi, so why is he riding the coattails of Bowen’s positive spin? I think I know why, but I can’t publish it. I’m sure it will come out in good time.

72 Comments:

Blogger bg said...

++

welcome to "everything old is new again"..

i believe Hillary's (etal) man is Chalabi (no mention of him i
see, well, not yet anyways), and she'll be the Secretary of
State
.. so get ready for a bumpy ride.. *sigh*

==

2:38 PM, November 21, 2008

 
Anonymous amagi said...

Thank you, Nibras. I was waiting for the other shoe to drop ever since you posted on the internal politics in Maliki's office.

If he does get ousted, however, what will change, practically speaking?

3:20 PM, November 21, 2008

 
Anonymous Kafir said...

So what does this mean? If all the potential PMs are a bunch of Iraqi patriots, then who cares if they play musical chairs? However, if they're talking about replacing him with an Iranian puppet, then we've got a problem.

6:48 AM, November 22, 2008

 
Anonymous gj said...

Nibras ... who is al-Adeeb? That's a new name to me.

11:17 AM, November 22, 2008

 
Anonymous John in Michigan, USA said...

Excellent writing, Nibras. This post reads like the analysis of a Senior Reporter assigned to the political beat. Can you tell us more about where you get your information? Obviously you'll need to protect yourself and sources, but if you can give a general idea. What are the similarities and differences between how one has to cover politics in Iraq vs. (for example) Lebanon or Jordan? vs. the US?

10:43 AM, November 23, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nibras, so you want Maliki to be kicked out. I started to lose faith in you and in what you stand for. You first supported the idiot Sarah Palin and now you want your uncle (Talabani) to kick Maliki out. Talabani and Barazani should be ashamed of themselves. There will come a day when the Iraqi people kick those two Kurdish idiots (T. & B.) out of Baghdad and make them lose the power they posses in the Iraqi political scene.

What a shame Nibras.

Ali/Iraq

7:17 PM, November 23, 2008

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Kazimi,

This comment has no obvious relation to your latest posting, however I thought this matter needs attention by specialists, of whom you stand out given your background and earlier posts.

I've been reading excerpts from the new "book" of Dr. Fadhel (aka Elsayed Imam abdel Aziz & El-Shaikh abdel Qadir Abdel Aziz), effectively the godfather/theorist of the Jihadi movement in Egypt. I would appreciate reading your feedback on his attack on the likes of Bin Laden and moreso Al-Zawahri in the context of their distortion of the principles, conditions and prerequisites for "Jihad". Dr. Fadhel was and perhaps remains one of the main references for issues of jurisprudence for militant Islamist groups. His writings ("Mouthakerat Al-Ta'riah li-Kitab Al-Tabri'ah")which appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat lately presents, to me at least, the most scathing attack on the principles, strategies and thought of Al-Qaeda and its leadership. This is more relevant coming from an authoritative insider who until the publication of this critique was one of the most credible thinkers/leaders of militant Islamic groups.

Hazim A-Dalli

3:29 AM, November 24, 2008

 
Blogger Jaguar b. p. said...

╠ You first supported the idiot Sarah Palin

Nibras mostly doesn't mean what he says, he is just trying to be contrarian.
You know Kaadhimi is a bright guy, you think he really can't see that Palin is a retard?

6:50 AM, November 24, 2008

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi amagi,

On a practical level, not much will change. Politics are on hold in Iraq until after the 2009 numbers (both sets of elections) are in.

Hi kafir,

Adel Abdel-Mahdi isn't an Iranian acolyte, but I have very little respect for him. He's a weird combination of douche bag, wimp and back stabber. But the silly reporters like him because he speaks French, and was once a Communist, then a Ba'athist, before turning Islamist. His father was a good man.

Hi gj,

I mentioned al-Adib/al-Adeeb in this column:

http://talisman-gate.blogspot.com/2006/04/dangerous-lineup.html

Hi John in Michigan,

I'm not a journalist, so I wouldn't know.

Hi Ali/Iraq,

Why would anyone assume that I'd support an Islamist from the Da'awa Party? I'm glad to see Islamists hobbling each other. Plus, bringing down Maliki would mean that some of the anti-Kurd advisors around him such as Sami al-Askari would not amount to much by way of a future cabinet post. And Prez Talabani isn't my uncle; he's just a distant cousin.

Hi Hazim,

I follow the Zarqawi wing of the jihad, and am not interested in the Zawahiri/OBL component. There are far more competent people out there who cover them. May I suggest: www.jihadica.com

Hi Jaguar,

I do support Sarah Palin, unironically so. So deal with it.

Best,

Nibras

2:21 PM, November 24, 2008

 
Blogger bg said...

++

woah.. Auchi is an Obama bud..

[In other news, a piece in the New York Times today caught my eye: James Glanz, a mediocre reporter in the opinion of this blog, writes up a puff piece on Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the sanctimonious and not-at-all helpful IG on Iraqi reconstruction, clearly as a favor for all the negative leaks that Bowen had sent Glanz’s way. But a name appears that seems to be out of place, that of “Namir al-Akabi”, who was referred to earlier on this blog under the spelling Namir Karim al-‘Uqabi. Al-‘Uqabi is a well-heeled multi-multi-millionaire, so why is he trudging around in the dust looking as if he’s an earnest, go-getting subcontractor at a minor construction site, in Ramadi of all places? Al-‘Uqabi is connected to Maliki’s office, and to Nadhmi Auchi, so why is he riding the coattails of Bowen’s positive spin? I think I know why, but I can’t publish it. I’m sure it will come out in good time.]

Obama-Odinga-Rezko-Ayers-Auchi-Saddam Hussein

VIDEO NO LONGER AVAILABLE.. AGAIN!!

Obama got his money from Rezko, who got his 3.5 Million from Auchi.

Rezko described his friendship with Auchi as "close"

Nadhmi Auchi is an Iraqi-born billionaire who was charged along with Saddam Hussein for conspiring to assassinate Prime minister (president) Abdul Karim Qasim and stood trial in 1959. (Auchi gave fellow Baath Party members machine guns from his home for Saddam Hussein.)

Auchi also financially backed Saddam Hussein's plan for a pipeline from Iraq to Saudi Arabia

Auchi protected secret money for Saddam Hussein AND Muammar al-Gaddafi.

(Remember, Obama's Trinity church Pastor Wright went with Nation of Islam minister Louis Farrakhan in 1993 to visit Libyan socialist leader Gadaffi.)

Raila Odinga was also financially backed by Muammar al-Gaddafi. Raila Odinga is Obama's cousin:

Obama's cousin Raila Odinga who just became co-President of Kenya this week (after an estimated 1,000 Christians were killed by fire and macheted by Muslims). Obama is said to be close to Raila Odinga, calling him several times a day, and even taking a break to call him during New Hampshire primary.

Odinga signed a secret pact with Muslim jihadists who were to ethnically cleanse Chritians. He wants to introduce Sharia law to a western embracing, mainly Christian Kenya!

Obama's cousin Raila Odinga was educated in communist E. Germany, and his father, Oginga Odinga led the communist oppostion during the Cold War.

Why does Raila Odinga use Obama's exact same campaign slogan: CHANGE.... Vote for CHANGE: Look at his website:

Weather Underground: Domestic terrorists Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dorhn!!

Besides Rezko, Rashid Khalidi a Columbia University Professor also held a fundraiser for Obama, Rashid Khalidi serves on the board of the non-profit organization that Bill Ayers and Barack Obama were paid directors of.

This organization granted funding to a controversial Arab group that is pro-Palestine and deeply resentful of Israel. They intensely support immigration reform and licenses and education to illegal aliens (but for which illegal aliens in mind?). Khalidi has been connected to numerous organizations, including: Palestinian News Agency, (PNA) and PLO, the Palestinian Liberation organization.

This Woods Fund, that Barack Obama and Bill Ayers were directors of raised money for AAAN: Arab American Action Network.

Obama and Bill Ayers don't just have just that in common, but Bill Ayers also contributed to Obama's current campaign, and Obama has been reported to visit with Bill in his home on numerous occasions and Bill has even been referred to as a mentor of Barack's.]

==

3:51 AM, November 25, 2008

 
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:)

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

The surprise inclusion of Namir Akabi or Ugabi shocked me. He recently played a role in the arrest and imprisonment of a Jordanian employee of ALMCO on charges of money laundering and terrorism. These charges were dropped after the 62-year-oldJordanian, Mansour Rabadi, had been imprisoned as a terrorist for a month - with almost no legal counsel nor medical attention for his blocked arteries, severe diabetes, high bp, high cholesterol. Charges of terrorism themselves terrify the accused woth possibility of execution. Rabadi is a Christian - of the Evangelical sects. Sounds like a ridiculous charge? Akabi himself in an email to me said let the government decide if it is "rediculous". why was the charge made? Akabi believed that there was a huge over-budget on the DIFR Project in Taji,Rabadi was an accountant - the 4 lead members of the team (AMericans) fled the country after a stormy meeting with Akabi. Rabadi was summoned from vacation in Jordan at end of NOvember 2008 - his passport was not returned until about March 2, 2009 by Akabi (Isn't that illegal) - also his pay has been withheld at least since January 2009. Akabi thinks Mansour knows something about the overbudget Rabadi was imprisoned on his way to leave the country after getting clearance from the Ministries - I question this tactic for getting some alleged info that puts a man's life at risk. Is this the hero of the reconstruction of Iraq? Is there a relation with Chalabi who is in charge of bringing water and electricity and services to Iraq? Patraeus himslef has coplimented Chalabi and introduced him to troops.Read Chalabi's history.

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Re the post above "The surprise inclusion of Namir Akabi or Ugabi shocked me. He recently played a role in the arrest and imprisonment of a Jordanian employee of ALMCO on charges of money laundering and terrorism."
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Sir:

Your words: . Al-‘Uqabi is a well-heeled multi-multi-millionaire, so why is he trudging around in the dust looking as if he’s an earnest, go-getting subcontractor at a minor construction site, in Ramadi of all places? Al-‘Uqabi is connected to Maliki’s office, and to Nadhmi Auchi, so why is he riding the coattails of Bowen’s positive spin? I think I know why, but I can’t publish it. I’m sure it will come out in good time.]

This Akabi seems well connected - he alleged his Christian employee Mansour Rabadi was a terrorist and then a forger etc - Rabadi's case is still bouncing around Iraq after more than a year. Hmmm.

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