Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Provincial Elections

Hi, all ye friends and enemies and those in between. Sorry for the lull. I have been dealing with all sorts of things, mostly personal, and my behavior is plenty excusable, for a change.

Let's get things going, and certainly the big topic is the ballot on Saturday. I had written a three-part series on this, so here goes for those who hadn't caught this on the Hudson-NY website:

Provincial Elections: Basra. Basra tells us how well Maliki may do against the Hakims, the Sadrists and Fadhila.

Provincial Elections: Anbar. Anbar tells us whether tribal associations have a political future.

Provincial Elections: Baghdad. Baghdad tells us if the seculars are making inroads against the Islamists.

This stuff was adapted from a report I wrote for a consultancy. I hope some of you will find it useful.


Anonymous Muntadhar al-Zaidi said...

Hi Dr. Kadhimyy, it is nice to see you back. You promised to beat me up and then later posted that you do not like torture for the reason of only retributing. Well I am here and even on the web. Let us talk soon. You can invite Tom Warrick and Laurie Mylroie.

P.S. I would also throw a shoe at Obama and at you.

Sent from my iPhone

2:27 PM, January 28, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I find your articles very useful. I am especially interested in the reporting of the McClatchy reporters. It seems to me they may be implanting their personal bias into their articles. I also appreciate a glimpse into the reconstruction of Iraq.

5:29 AM, January 29, 2009

Anonymous amagi said...


So what are your predictions? Maliki seems to have weathered the storm you posted about here... where do you think he will be after the results are in?

I see that several more candidates were shot down in advance of the election. I know it is not unexpected, but it makes me glum nonetheless. Do you think they will be remembered?

1:18 PM, January 29, 2009

Blogger Jaguar b. p. said...

I see that several more candidates were shot down in advance of the election.

Ini l-Hukmu illa li llah.
("Legislation is for none but Allah.")

3:08 PM, January 30, 2009

Anonymous Tom D said...

Thanks you for the updates. Detailed local electoral analysis is rare anywhere in the world, so yours is special indeed.

9:21 PM, January 30, 2009

Blogger bg said...


Allah to

Blogger Jaguar b. p..

i laugh at you!!

come, come get your 72 raisins..


4:33 AM, January 31, 2009

Anonymous Alistair Puterschmidt IV said...

It is obvious that President Bush and America brought freedom to Iraq. Muntadhar al-Zaidi even has the freedom of speech to post comments on this blog. Back in Saddam's time, I do not think that prisoners had internet access. I wish more people would realize this. Only then will a street in Baghdad be named after President Bush.

5:40 AM, January 31, 2009

Blogger bg said...


Jaguar b. p. said...

("Legislation is for none but Allah.")

off with the Ayatollah's heads!!


5:58 AM, January 31, 2009

Anonymous Hope said...

Nice to read you again Nibras!

Thanks for this post. I have been on the edge of my seat over these elections. I can't wait to see the stats on the turn out as well as the results.

Thanks again!

6:11 AM, January 31, 2009

Anonymous nigeria said...

Can I get your phone number? You sound cute.

11:50 AM, February 02, 2009

Anonymous Tom D said...

Even President Obama admitted today things are going well in Iraq, doubtless in his mind due to ten days of his exalted leadership.

War is like cleaning latrines 24 hours a day. It's not a cute cultural endeavor for favored ladies and gentlemen. But real people have to deal with it or die in it.

The good people in Iraq made it turn out well, and so did the good people in the US. I will never forgive the people in both places who filled the latrines and tried to destroy the cleaners. But I am happy that good people are winning.

7:17 PM, February 03, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am not happy with the US McClatchy news bureau. Did you read their account of the voting process? They will not concede that freedom is good for Iraq. This is what they wrote for the US people to read. Please tell me your thoughts on this reporting.
Low turnout in Iraq's election
reflects a disillusioned nation
McClatchy Newspapers
by Leila Fadel

“BAGHDAD — Voter turnout in Iraq's provincial elections Saturday was the lowest in the nation's short history as a new democracy despite a relative calm across the nation. Only about 7.5 million of more than 14 million registered voters went to the polls. Interviews suggest that the low voter turnout also is an indication of Iraqi [disenchantment with a democracy that, so far, has brought them very little.]

[Many blame the U.S.] presence in Iraq for sowing the seeds of sectarianism by bringing back exiles to rule them.”

11:09 AM, February 06, 2009

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