Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Friday, February 06, 2009

NewMajority.com: Maliki's Plurality Adds to His Woes

I have a new piece out about the provincial elections that ran today on David Frum's new website, New Majority: Why Maliki's insufficient victory made things all the more complicated for him.


Anonymous Justice/Basil said...


Great analysis; however, I just have one question for which I would like you to address. When you referred to Dawa as "grouping a few hundred members," where you referring to those are in mid to senior level positions in the party?

Because if you are referring to the entire party and/or all its' supporters, I can say that it has way more than a "few hundred" members, despite the fact that it was considered a small party relative to SIIC, the Sadrists, and others in the years after liberation.

While the core party rank and file is still small at this point in time, I wouldn't even come close to calling their numbers a "couple hundred," if that's what you meant.

Dawa was also extremely popular between the late 1950s until the late 1970s among a huge chunk of the Shia population before Saddam went on a vicious campaign of extermination against them and they fragmented and scattered across various locations in the Middle East and Western Europe.

Nonetheless, it's great to see you posting again and I do look forward to more of your excellent commentary regarding Iraq and the consequences of the provincial elections.

Best regards,


7:44 PM, February 06, 2009

Anonymous gj said...

Nibras ... fantastic analysis of Maliki's position. You seem to be the only US pundit going around who understands how proportional representation works.

On first reading the results, my immediate reaction was that Maliki should call a national election as soon as is possible to capitalise on his security credentials before the Dawa reps on the provisional councils have time to stuff up his image. Your analysis confirms my view.

But he'll have to form another version of the UIA. If the shia parties don't coalesce to contest the national election they would run the risk of failing to achieve the plurality that would entitle them to nominate the pm and cabinet.

Can you tell me under the constitution how soon can the election be held? Also how did Chalabi go?

cheers, gj

8:00 PM, February 06, 2009

Anonymous Dr. Damaghsiz said...

The reason that SIIC lost big is because they ran on a platform of what they called "the two G's", which meant "Gaza" and "legalise gay marriage". It did not work as planned.

My insider sources state that Jalaladdin al-Sagheer pushed for a 3G platform also including "Government", which meant instituting Vilayet-e Faqih, but big boy Ammar said no to this because he thought it was "too radical, too soon".

I heard that SIIC is planning to bounce back from the election by forming a multifaceted alliance with Sikhs, Communists, Pachachi, Mithal al-Alousi, Nabil al-Mousawi, Saatchi & Saatchi, Sharif Ali, and the Mujahedin-e Khalq which should be enough to have a plurality in Parliament. The uninformed Iraq observers may miss obvious hints of the coming alliance, but the Communists having a rally in Mal'ab al-Sha'ab called "Marx, Rajavi, and Tatbir" make things pretty obvious.

I think it is about to get interesting - stay tuned.

4:40 AM, February 08, 2009

Anonymous Justice/Basil said...

Nibras, by the way, what do you make of Saleh al-Mutlak's list winning the plurality of votes in Anbar and doing well in Salaheddin?

In your view, how does this development bode with regards to Shia-Sunni relations as Saleh al-Mutlak is known as a prominent, unabashed Baathist sympathizer/supporter and his grouping seems to have gained much more support over the past few years in the "Sunni Arab street" ?

In addition, what do you make of al-Hadba's prominent results in Ninevah, given that they mainly based their campaign on an explicit anti-Kurdish platform?

Best regards, as always,


3:35 PM, February 09, 2009

Anonymous Dhulfiqar said...

It is obvious that Iraqis are prepared for unity against the American occupation puppet separatist elements of society such as the Iranian-backed Shi'ites (Hakim, Maliki, Sadr) and the Kurds (allies of the Zionists).

The brave people of Anbar and Mosul are the vanguard of true Iraqi nationalism against the occupation and the Zionist terrorists who are trying to divide and conquer Iraq. This is why Mutlag and Hadba were victorious and in the next elections you will see less votes for the pawns of the Iranians and Americans and Jews.

Nibras al-Kadhimi who is an American and Israeli puppet and supporter of the Iranian American agent Ahmad al-Chalabi will tell you how his so-called INC did not do well in this election because the puppets are done and the real Iraq will return as the Eastern Gate and light of the immortal Arab nation.

5:58 AM, February 10, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thomas Strouse.

12:03 AM, February 11, 2009

Anonymous silvers said...

you do a well analysis...

7:33 PM, February 18, 2009

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