Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Al-Baghdadi’s Sixteenth Speech

Al-Furqan Media Productions, the propaganda arm of the self-styled 'Islamic State of Iraq', released a 12 minute speech attributed to Abu Omar al-Baghdadi today, refuting Iraqi government statements that he had been captured last month. The speech is titled 'Lying Agents'.

To my ears, it is the same voice that we’ve heard all along since December 2006, and which is presented as that of al-Baghdadi’s.

Speech highlights:

-Al-Baghdadi says that he thought that the Iraqi government’s claim of his capture was only a ruse to hold them over for a few hours until they had absorbed “the blows of the mujahidin” but was surprised when they took it further and released a photo claiming that it was of him. Al-Baghdadi claims that the jihadists do not know who the man in the photo is supposed to be, and add that he must have been tortured into confessing.

-The speech for the most part is a sermon about the honesty of the Sunnis versus the perfidy of the Shias. Al-Baghdadi asks the Sunnis, “How is it that you have acquiesced to being ruled by those who take lying as a religion? ...Oh Sunnis, the [Shias] are your enemies, and their past and present is full of their betrayals and conspiracies against you. Do not trust them…”

-Al-Baghdadi sees that the pinnacle so far of the ‘Harvest of Blessings’ Offensive that the jihadists have launched was to force the Iranian government to shut its borders with Iraq after dozens of Iranian pilgrims were killed by suicide bombers.

-Al-Baghdadi promises his fighters that “within a few months” they will witness tangible aspects of their victory.

The speech doesn’t have much meat on it, as it was meant to show the jihadists that al-Baghdadi is still around, and that he can be recognized by his voice and his style of delivery. Apparently that is all jihadists need to know, as they trust their leadership blindly.

One needs to note again that the person of al-Baghdadi is not a random security decoy or a publicity stunt intended for show towards non-jihadists; for jihadists, he’s the candidate caliph—the Qurayshite ‘Prince of the Faithful—who is tasked with resurrecting the Muslim empire.

19 Comments:

Blogger Khalid from iraqiblogupdates.blogspot.com/ said...

Nibras,

Thank you for your analysis but I would like to draw your attention to the availability of a fake voice software such as the following one:

Fake Voice 1.854 Publisher's

In actual fact it can do many tasks such:


"Fake Voice is a voice changer software that helps you change your voice to male, female, old, young, teen, hard, robot, shrill, or some one totally new. It helps you transform your voice to something new. Just integrate Fake Voice with your IM and do voices with your friends."

For more information just click the link:

http://www.download3k.com/Install-Fake-Voice.html

What I want to say that those terrorists aim to destroy our country and let us kill each other. They want a full-scale war between Kurds and Arabs.... and the rest. Therefore, they are ready to do anything at their disposal to reach the inhuman dream of making our civilized country another Taliban state.

To be honest with you I'm sure that they have no hope and the Iraqi people will prevail.

Take care,

11:49 AM, May 12, 2009

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Dear Khalid,

Thank you for your comment, and point well taken. However, even with the existence or use of this software, the manner of delivery is very hard to fake. Abu Omar al-Baghdadi has a very distinct style, that is quickly recognizable to someone like me who has followed him for a long time. There is even a soft mumbling sometimes that is reminiscent of someone with a dental problem. A distinctive style of delivery also goes for Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, and it was true too for Abu Musaab al-Zarqawi and Muharib al-Juburi.

To the best of my knowledge, the speaker on the tape today is the same person who has been speaking in all of al-Baghdadi's past audios.

Best,

Nibras

12:29 PM, May 12, 2009

 
Blogger Khalid from iraqiblogupdates.blogspot.com/ said...

Dear Nibras,

Thank you for your kind reply.

Let me just put it to you that even the manner of delivery can be faked , all what you need is a good actor.

Having said that, I fully understand what you have presented here which is a strong argument based on your reliable knowledge.

Applying the probability theory, I will give you 75%.

Take care,

12:49 PM, May 12, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for giving us in the US some news from Iraq. We get very little now days from our media.

1:16 PM, May 12, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not all issues in Iraq can be blamed on foreigners. The Kurdish-Arab political dispute doesn't seem to need much external prodding to become a serious issue.

12:25 AM, May 13, 2009

 
Blogger Jaguar b. p. said...


► What I want to say that those terrorists aim to destroy our country and let us kill each other.
And you are looking to avert that, by sending Iraqi Shia troops into Sunna regions?

6:32 PM, May 13, 2009

 
Blogger Khalid from iraqiblogupdates.blogspot.com/ said...

Jaguar b.P,

I have to inform you that I'm just an ordinary independent citizen of Iraq and as such I'm not making decisions as how to tackle this chronic disease of racism.

All what I want to see is a free, a prosperous and a united Iraq.

We are all Iraqis and we should have one united army to defened our nation.

As to the information you mentioned, I'm not aware of it and I leave Nibras to comment and clarify the issue.

1:24 AM, May 14, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi this is abu-mustafa
could it be that the man who records his voice as albaghdadi is not albaghdadi himself?
they could use this as a contingency plan in case he was caught to deny the whole thing.

8:28 AM, May 15, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nibras, are you sure the voice of the so called "Al-Baghdadi" is for an Iraqi person? I am not convinced when I listen to his accent that he is Iraqi. I think the voice is for a Saudi man and not for an Iraqi.

Ali/Iraq

11:24 AM, May 15, 2009

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi abu mustafa,

What matters here is what al-Baghdadi's followers think. They think the voice belongs to him, and they respond to the voice that they know much like how dogs respond to the pitch of their master. All they need to know that he is still free and roaming was to hear this date-specific speech.

Dear Ali/Iraq,

I agree with you that when al-Baghdadi is reading from a prepared speech in classical Arabic, his accent cannot be placed. However, I've heard him rattle off the names of tribes and locations in Iraq in a way that only an Iraqi can pull off. So to me, I'm fairly confident that the speaker is Iraqi.

Best,

Nibras

12:05 PM, May 15, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Nibras
I would say....EXACTLY!
this could be the whole scheme
A Saudi man who reads speeches written by iraqi insurgents.
and by this way he can never be caught.
of course you remember khalid almishadani confessions that albaghdadi is a fictional character
Best regards
Abu Mustafa

6:11 AM, May 17, 2009

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi Abu Mustafa,

For what it's worth, I still believe that al-Baghdadi is a real person, is Iraqi, and is the man behind the voice in the speeches. I still believe he hasn't been caught.

I base this on the far grander schemes the jihadists had in mind when they chose al-Baghdadi.

Best,

Nibras

6:37 AM, May 17, 2009

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Nibras,

first of all, I want to tell you, that I am reading your blog daily and that you have created it very good/well.
--------------------
The Iraqi government still think, that they have caught Baghdadi. I have heard his new speech and an older one. For me, the speaker ist the same.
I think the iraqi government doesn´t want to tell that they have caught the wrong man, because Al-Maliki had given an statement for this capture. This would disgrace Maliki.

What do you think about this?

1:25 PM, May 17, 2009

 
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