Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

To De-Baath or Not To De-Baath

Watching the plotline of the forthcoming Iraqi elections unfold is like watching a soap opera: feigned drama, unforeseen twists, and all of it must-see, gripping entertainment. Personally, I am quite enjoying it.

In the latest episode, the Accountability and Justice Commission (…the reincarnation of the Higher National Commission for De-Baathification) did its job by naming 511 candidates for parliament as being ineligible to run according to Iraqi law. Standard operating procedure if one follows the Iraqi Constitution and the such.

But the shrillness and misinterpretation of U.S.-based analysts and commentators of what happened—nothing unusual—compelled me to make a few things clear. So here’s my brief interpretation of the plot twist before I get back to watching the show:

-The would-be candidates are being barred from running according to a new law that was passed by the sitting parliament. They are not being judged according to the old De-Baath law that was passed in January 2004 by the Iraqi Governing Council. The new law stipulated the formation of a new ‘Accountability and Justice’ Commission (AJC) to take over the duties of implementing the new law. Since parliament and the executive branch never got around to appointing a new chairman for the new commission, who in turn was supposed to suggest a new bureaucratic structure for the AJC, the old De-Baath structure, with Ahmad Chalabi as its chairman, is still in charge of running day-to-day operations for the implementation of the new law. Barring illegal candidacies is part of those day-to-day operations. Myself, I had qualms about messing around with the old De-Baath law that, being a hawk on these issues, I found to be already excessively lenient. However, I was pleasantly surprised to find that the new law could be interpreted by the legal authorities to bar more Ba’athists and former security and military personnel than its precursor, so that turned me into a supporter.

-The ‘Anti-Baath’ campaign is an election gimmick. I am very sensitive to anything to do with Ba’athists, but even I am convinced that Ba’athists no longer represent a strategic threat to the ‘New Iraq’, not even minimally. All I want the law to do now is to shame the Ba’athists for their past. I am disinterested in barring Ba’athists because I may harbor a fear a return to dictatorship, or watch them undermine the New Iraq. They are too weak and broken for that to ever happen again. The state, the New Iraq, is too hearty and strong to be undermined. In this respect, I can be amused rather than goaded by the Anti-Ba’ath campaign. I see it for what it is: a vote earner. The Iraqi National Alliance (…the latest incarnation of the UIA parliamentary bloc, once led by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, and now by his son, Ammar) has one single election gambit: get the Iraqi voter to think that by not voting for us, he or she would be voting for the return of the Ba’ath, a boogie that is much hated by the majority of Shi’a voters, who are the natural constituency for the INA. They can’t run on integrity, since they were and are still part of a government accused of widespread corruption in the public mind, and they can’t run on efficiency, since they haven’t been able to deliver basic services. So they can only run against a boogie man: the Ba’ath.

-The main competitor of the INA is PM Maliki’s State of Law slate. The INA wants to create the impression that Maliki is soft on Ba’athists. This started with the rumors that Maliki had even contemplated aligning himself with the poster-boy of neo-Ba’athism, Saleh al-Mutlag, (true) and appointing many Ba’athists in the security services he controls (also true). Maliki has been playing catch-up for several months aiming, at least rhetorically, to come out on the hawkish right of the INA when it comes to De-Baathification. However, the damage, as the issue looms larger as an election point, keeps bringing Maliki down with Shi’a voters, 40 percent of whom gave him their votes in critical provinces such as Baghdad and Basra in last year’s provincial elections.

-Chalabi is no. 3 on the INA’s list for Baghdad. That makes him one of its principal movers and shakers, as he had been in the past before falling out with Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim. By using the De-Baath commission to nullify the candidacy of 511 politicians, especially from Maliki’s and Bolani’s lists, he scored a big victory towards placing the Anti-Baath issue at the forefront of electoral politics. I’m also sure that he knew that the American administration would rise to the bait: Joe Biden’s attempts to micromanage this crises only serves to make the issue bigger, and the bigger it is, the better for the INA running on this controversy as their sole ‘gotcha’ against Maliki. It is interesting that Basra’s Muzahim al-Kana’an, who in the last election got an exemption from De-Baathication because he was running on Chalabi’s 2005 slate, has been included in the latest AJC list. Al-Kana’an is running with Bolani this time (…note that Bolani also ran on Chalabi’s list back then).

-Biden’s plan to delay implementing the law until after elections is patently ridiculous. Stripping MPs-after-the-fact of their status should the AJC’s evidence pan out is procedurally done by a simple majority vote in parliament, which is just a bigger crises waiting to happen. American involvement is being trumpeted in DC as a means to ensure that the withdrawal schedule proceeds on time. But no clause in the SOFA agreement mentions the word ‘elections’. It is a made-up excuse to meddle in internal Iraqi affairs and compromises, the one thing that US analysts and commentators seeking to disentangle America from Iraq have consistently said should be done by Iraqis themselves. One Iraqi side leveraging American power against another Iraqi side is a recipe for continued political imbalance. DeBaath was smart enough to include more Shi’as than Sunnis on the list of barred candidates. Speaking of ‘sectarian agendas’ may make sense in clueless DC, but doesn’t compute in Baghdad; the INA can easily claim, with Sunnis such as the pretender to the Iraqi throne Sharif Ali Bin Al-Hussein and liberal democrat Nassir al-Chadirchi featured prominently on its slate, that it has no sectarian agenda. Remember, their target audience is Shi’a, so by claiming to be above sectarianism, which is what Iraqis in general would like to believe about their favored slates in the elections, while highlighting American meddling as a leg-up for the Sunnis, the INA can sell itself, subtly, as the guarantor of Shi’a rights. Banking on residual sectarianism was the raison d’etre of reconstituting the INA, even though other Shi’a leaders are betting on ‘patriotic’ Iraqi agendas. Therein lies the competition.

-Which brings us back to Saleh al-Mutlag. He’s the principal beneficiary of this drama given, of course, if he’s eventually allowed to run. The debarment was exhibited in the media as a move principally directed against him for his stated (and taped) Ba’athist sympathies. According to the new AJC law, his statements are illegal. But he could appeal by saying that he uttered at a moment of anger. While it is true that at one point the Ba’athist leadership supported his candidacy as a temporary front for their participation in Iraqi politics, they were agreed that they will put the word out that he is not to be supported in the upcoming elections. That was what was being said in the summer, and most Sunnis were remarking that Mutlag will fall flat on his face in the parliamentary elections. See what Mutlag did was rather than be a front, he decided to become the front man. He overreached, and decided that he will cast himself in the role of the leader of Iraq’s Sunnis, something that the Ba’athist leadership couldn’t believe that he’d have the gall to do given that he was a nobody during the Saddam years. The INA doesn’t care about the Ba’athist constituency, since they could never compete for it. So if Mutlag takes it this time around, it doesn’t detract from their game plan against Maliki. Better still, it would be against the expressed wishes of the Ba’athist command. If Mutlag runs, then the Ba’athist vote would go to him despite the designs of the Ba’athist leadership since his failure at the polls would be perceived as the failure of the Ba’ath. They must grudgingly support him because he is now, especially after the AJC’s move, seen as the face of the neo-Ba’athist vote. Mutlag is no dummy, he won’t allow the Ba’athist leadership to gain a footing at his expense: this victory will be all his, and he may just be able to become what he has always worked for, the anointed leader of the Sunnis in the next parliament.

So here's my advice: watch Iraqi politics, if you're interested, as one would watch a soap opera. The harbingers of doom would like to peddle the idea that Iraq is forever at the precipe; one small nudge and it will go teetering over the edge. That's BS. The state is too stable, the anti-state forces are too depleted to do anything about it. Bombings are a nuisance, not a strategic threat anymore. The New Iraq has weathered the passing storm, and survived. What's left is the Grand Bargain that forges an Iraq in which its constituent parts can find a way to live, and prosper, together. The drama of Iraqi politics at this stage is more about mindless fun, than about a return to violence. Watch it, and understand it, as such. It is quite a feat that after less than a decade of the monumental change, we can talk about the re-introduction of political competition, in all its roller-coaster thrills, back to Baghdad. Nothing spells out success as much as this most salient fact.

30 Comments:

Anonymous Faisal Kadri said...

I must congratulate you on this good piece. The only statement I have problem with right now is: The state is too stable. To my mind, the only state which is too stable is a dictatorship.

7:27 AM, January 20, 2010

 
Blogger Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh said...

Mr. Kazimi:

I am curious--what do you think of Reidar Visser's commentary on this issue:

http://historiae.org/de-Baathification.asp


WH

12:13 PM, January 20, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nibras has already made it clear that he is no fan of Visser's analysis on many occasions. But what I want to know is whether Visser has ever been to Iraq. I heard that he hasn't. Is that accurate?

12:32 PM, January 20, 2010

 
Anonymous gj said...

"See what Mutlag did was rather than be a front, he decided to become the front man. He overreached, and decided that he will cast himself in the role of the leader of Iraq’s Sunnis, something that the Ba’athist leadership couldn’t believe that he’d have the gall to do given that he was a nobody during the Saddam years."

Fantastic Nibras. Thank you.

gj

ps your old boss is a slippery villain?

1:13 PM, January 20, 2010

 
Anonymous JMC said...

Ali Faisal Al-Lami and the other pro-Iranian agents running the commission are trying to weaken the moderate, nationalist, and secular parties.

They are trying to get Iraqis to return to their 'group affiliations' out of anger. Which would help the extreme Sunnis and the theocratic Shia parties.

8:22 PM, January 20, 2010

 
Anonymous amagi said...

Nibras,

If you say not to worry, then, in spite of my nature, I will not worry.

I would be interested to know what sorts of developments *would* cause you to worry.

I readily admit that I am wholly unaccustomed to watching this sort of political kabuki, so it is impossible for me to tell which moves are symbolic and which moves might actually be dangerous to a fledgling democracy.

Of course, all this means is that I will continue to watch this space for updates, as I have done for years now. Please keep the commentary coming.

10:27 AM, January 21, 2010

 
Blogger Iraqi Mojo said...

"kabuki" - what a great way to describe Iraqi politics.

1:46 PM, January 21, 2010

 
Anonymous Statesman said...

Do you know that the Baath party finished the day Saddam's statue fell?

Do you know that almost all members of the Baath party were ready to participate in a new Iraq?

Do you know why there were a few months of peace after 9 April 2003? but then after the disbanding of the army and deBaathification started (as per the encouragement of Ahmed Chalabi) the bombings started?

The Baath party members are not al-Qaida - they are not driven by ideology, but by interests. They were ready to participate in the new Iraq (even the criminals among them), but they never had the chance. Due to the deBaathification, it became in their interest to undermine this new state which sought to annihilate them from society and civil service. And what is there in Iraq beyond civil service? Not much!

Now, let me tell you why:
All Baath party members were ready to participate in the "new Iraq".
The moment you start to make Baath members an enemy, they start to feel isolated, threatened and they start to regroup. The moment you isolate them from society, the moment you do not allow them to earn a living (ie. a state salary), then you have created a new enemy.

You are a Muslim Shia, so let me put to you this example of one can have the integrity and self-confidence and assimilate all:

Your Prophet, after conquering Mecca, wanted to build an Islamic nation (or more rather add to Medina). Mecca was filled with those who had fought him for two decades, had killed his supporters, had confiscated the Muslims assets and homes. This great man (whether you believe in him as a Prophet or not), granted a general amnesty. To the man who led the fight against him, his message and his wife who ate his uncle's liver what did he do?
He announced that their house would be a place of amnesty and peace - he elevated them.

Now in Iraq, there was once have an opportunity to assimilate all Iraqis under a new system. But when the new rulers came in, they declared that these Iraqis would be banished... from society, from earning a living, from everything - and then you are surprised when they cooperate with Arab terrorists and the like?!

It is time you, and all those who so vehemently anti-Baath, to develop the self confidence and say 'yes, they (the Baathists) committed errors - the ones who directly harmed another man will be subject to criminal law & punishment, but all others are equal as any other Iraqi'. It doesn't sound that this fits with most Iraqi's emotions, however a true politician thinks with his mind using logic putting emotions aside.

I agree the Baath are criminals - and every single one that remained in the Baath after it became corrupted - ultimately shares responsibility for Saddam's crimes. They allowed his regime to stay in power. They did not have the integrity or strong moral principles to stand against the tyrant. But I will not judge them now, God will be the judge. You want to build a nation. You want to bring stability to the country. You are not here to exact revenge. The true statesmen is above revenge but seeks a long term strategy for the best of everyone under his authority.

Finally, to end, you say "Bombings are a nuisance". Lose your wife to a bomb and I dare you to repeat that sentence to your motherless 4 year old daughter. We all have emotions, but in politics please do not mix the two.

8:35 AM, January 22, 2010

 
Anonymous gj said...

"The wife who ate his husband's liver"

Priceless.

11:02 AM, January 22, 2010

 
Anonymous gj said...

Could somebody provide an English translation of this YouTube (assume speaker is Dr Mutlaq.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCDjs7hHiK8&feature=player_embedded

2:55 PM, January 22, 2010

 
Blogger Iraqi Mojo said...

So the Baathists bombed Iraqi markets and police stations because of de-Baathification.

Has there ever been a group of people who've reacted like the Baathists have to their demise? Did the Nazis bomb German markets and police after de-Nazification? How about the Italians? Who bombs markets after being toppled from power?

De-Baathificaiton went too far. Kan3an Makiya says it became de-Sunnification. Baathists without blood on their hands should be allowed to participate in government. But there is no excuse for bombing markets. No excuse for terrorism.

3:35 PM, January 22, 2010

 
Blogger elf2006real said...

As a certain blogger - SNLII - pointed out on Abu Muqawama, taking over then De-Baathfying Iraq would be like invading and occupying Cumberland County, North Carolina and implementing a policy denying employment to military and Veterans. In other words no matter how just or satisfying it may have been it was an act of stupidity so profound as to give one a glimpse of infinity.

Sorry Nibras, it was almost the stupidest thing we could have done. The only thing stupider would have been a policy to rape and kill the Iraqi women and children (including raping boys).
With the incredible luck that God only consistently bestows upon America (sorry) the latter policy of f*cking and killing little boys was Al Qaeda's.

We got lucky.

4:01 PM, January 23, 2010

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Dear elf2006real,

I like you. I sense that you really care about Iraq. And you have been a loyal reader and thoughtful commentator. Please don't take the last quip in this old post personally. But this is how I felt, and continue to feel, about the issue:

http://talismangate.blogspot.com/2008/01/i-liked-my-flag-best-and-thing-or-two.html

Best,

Nibras

1:07 AM, January 24, 2010

 
Anonymous gj said...

With all respect to SNLII, his Cumberland County analogy was simply ridiculous unless Cumberland County's military had been the core of a totalitarian (20% minority) regime tyrannising the rest of the United States for 30 years?

Like most of the US military and political class and virtually ALL of its media chattering class, the perspective is almost entirely sunni-centric for some reason. Must be all those years of having to suck up to the Sunni arab despots in the Gulf and Egypt.

Anyway this sunni-centrism seemed to spill over to the (very, very brave) officers who served in Iraq and who posted on AM? I was a bit surprised about that. Can you enlighten?

Bottom line is, the shia and the Kurds will never, ever, tolerate the Baath emerging again. Never, nada. And neither would you Yanks if Cumberland County had been tyrannising you.

Nibras, I would dearly love a translation of that Mutlaq YouTube. Can't you help?

cheers gj

5:02 PM, January 24, 2010

 
Anonymous Yousef said...

I'm surprised that you spent so many paragraphs talking about this issue and yet you never discussed the background of the man in charge, Ali Feisal al-Lami. Since you know everything about these Iraqi Arabs, you certainly could provide some colour on this brave anti-Ba'athist crusader.

12:40 PM, January 31, 2010

 
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