Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Election Day

I voted. It felt great, but the greatest thing about it was how normal it felt; elections have become a ho-hum, commonplace occurance. That's quite a feat for a country with Iraq's past and current challenges. The voting procedure itself was very well organized and speedy. The election site had seven polling stations, with about 400 registered voters allowed to vote there. Everyone's name was posted outside, along with information about what polling station they were supposed to use. Once inside, IDs were checked against name lists, and one had to sign next one's name to indicate that this name has voted. All in all, there are reasonable mechanisms in place to contain incidents of fraud. Most complaints are the fault of voters, who should have checked their registration status and followed the Electoral Commission's instructions that were amply circulated beforehand in the run-up to the ballot.

The Western media is hyperventilating about mortars and katyushas, but what I found interesting is that the Islamic State of Iraq failed to carry out its threats of disrupting the elections in any discernible fashion. This was a logistical failure for the jihadists; hardly any successful suicide bombers or sniper attacks near the polling stations. Lobbing mortars indiscriminately around Baghdad is BS intimidation. It certainly didn't deter voters.

The fact that the security authorities allowed vehicular traffic around 11 AM was both surprising and bold. It showed confidence in their security precautions, and the fact that there were no car bombs shows that they were right.

As for the initial results, what I'm hearing from my own sources and what I'm seeing on TV point out, to me at least, that my predictions a few days ago (scroll down) were reasonably accurate. Maliki on top, followed by Allawi, and Iraqi National Alliance a distant third. Maliki has beaten the Sadrists in their own bastions in Baghdad. That says a lot.


Blogger Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh said...

All this brings back memories of working as a State Department guy in Tuz Khormatu during the provincial elections in 2009. As you might expect, everyone in the USG was very concerned about all those sorts of things, and I still remember a lot of nervous waiting around for news in the TOC at FOB Bernstein related to the elections.

But for all the worries the Americans we had--and I believe it was appropriate for us to plan for the worst--I still remember the tremendous sigh of relief that we had the day after elections, and how relieved we were to realize that we really had worried too much about the GOI's ability to pull off the elections in a legitimate and credible manner. Our one serious accusation of voting irregularity in the qada completely evaporated when the party that originally claimed to be the victim of nefarious dealings realized that they had in fact won a plurality of votes--one of the high points of my tour in Iraq was when one of those party officials apologized to me about a month later for some of the hyperventilating they had done before the elections about how their opponents would manipulate the security services to steal votes. Even to him, I think, this looked really silly when they realized they had "won" on election day.

My IHEC international election observer credential sits in a frame in my office, and it'll always be a memento of one of the proudest days of my life--to have seen the Iraqis themselves execute with aplomb the core ritual of a free and self-governing people.

1:17 PM, March 07, 2010

Blogger Dolly said...

Do you remember when the Cross-worshippers declared victory against the Taliban in 2001 ?

That is how all these sham fake elections will sound in retrospect

96,000 more Crusaders left in Iraq -- countdown to killing fields.

5:03 PM, March 07, 2010

Anonymous Wayne said...

Thank you for the wonderful information. I always appreciate your honest posts. I also enjoyed the first comment writer above. Of course I don't think dolly knows what is happening.

5:59 PM, March 07, 2010

Anonymous Kate Delaney said...

Let your voice be heard through your ballots. In this new times, people must be bold enough to fight for the future which will benefit him and not the people who will be given power.

Your post is very inspiring.Thanks!

6:24 PM, March 07, 2010

Blogger Matthew Avitabile said...

Thanks again! Democracy in action!

8:22 PM, March 07, 2010

Blogger elf2006real said...

In 2005 there was a tremendous political and moral victory squandered with the first battle of the Purple fingers when the Amiriki then abruptly pulled back to the FOB's. Hopefully there will be no such politically motivated snatching of defeat from victory.

Yes I know they secured the nation, however it's a good idea not to keep the 50K advisors around for a bit.

2:07 AM, March 08, 2010

Anonymous Tim said...

Congratulations, and peace!

10:21 AM, March 08, 2010

Blogger Jason said...

Just read the article on Iraq in The Economist. Extremely somber, and makes it sound like Iraq is still on the ropes. Nibras, if you get a chance to read it, it would be nice to get some perspective.

1:37 PM, March 08, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Nibras Kazimi:

I am a Chinese reporter with Beijing News. I focus on your blog, which is excellent and full of courage!

As we all know, this time, Iraq held an election, which is a key point to all the Iraqis. So would you like to answer some my questions, about situation nowadays and your feeling?

Do you feel some changes in society and daylilies after Saddam regime collapse? Such as food price / living standard / real estate / security.etc.

Thanks to your blog, I know you joined to vote in March 7, and where is the location of your voting station? Which group do you support? And why?

Have you some other stories can tell me and made you impressed this year? Can you briefly introduce yourself and family?

If you like, could you send some pictures to show you or Iraqi voting or life?

cnzhangle@yahoo.com is my email,Please feel free to keep in touch! Chinese people care for and support you!

Best wishes,


In Beijing

4:24 AM, March 09, 2010

Anonymous Apostate said...

What's stopping you from starting the killing fields now, Dolly? Are you scared of 96,000 crusaders, mostly holed up in their bases? Oh wait, I forgot, you don't live in Iraq.

5:51 AM, March 09, 2010

Blogger bg said...


Congratulations Iraq/is!!

good going TG, thumbsup!!

even one of your/our favorite (sarc) news sources had to "smile" on the election..

A Vote of Thanks

[Democracy has transformed most Iraqis from people who either voted scared or were apathetic to Saddam’s fake election, into people who are driven to vote by a sense of ownership of their country.

Iraqis realize that their democracy is not the best, but they also know that practice makes perfect.

Since 2002 Iraqi elections have been evolving. While still not perfect, democracy is striking root.

Meanwhile, what Iraqis like me have learned is that transformation from autocracy to democracy would not have been possible without the 4,700 brave American and allied servicemen and women who lost their lives, and the many others who were wounded, for the sake of Iraq’s freedom.

Families of these heroes should know that many of us are grateful to their sons and daughters, and to the United States and its allies at large, even if they do not hear thank you often from Iraq or its leaders.

It is on days like Sunday that these sacrifices most strongly comes to Iraqi minds.]

Iraq's Remarkable Election

[It takes a cynical mind not to share in the achievement of Iraq's national elections. Bombs and missiles, al Qaeda threats and war fatigue failed to deter millions of Iraqis of all sects and regions from exercising a right that is rare in the Arab world. Even the U.N.'s man in Baghdad called the vote "a triumph."

On Sunday, 61% of eligible voters came out in Anbar Province, a former extremist stronghold that includes the towns of Fallujah and Ramadi. In the last national elections five years ago, 3,375 people—or 2%—voted in Anbar. The other Sunni-dominated provinces that boycotted in 2005 saw similar numbers: over 70% turnout in Diyala and Salaheddin and 67% in Nineveh, all higher than the national average of 62%. American Presidential elections rarely have such turnout.


8:47 PM, March 09, 2010

Blogger Dolly said...

"Oh wait, I forgot, you don't live in Iraq."

Your buddy here Al-Kazimi also doesn't live in Iraq

Apparently, nobody in their right mind wants to live in this wonderful democracy of yours

7:41 AM, March 10, 2010

Blogger bg said...



Gen. Odierno: 'People of Iraq Have Embraced Democracy'


As Iraq counts the ballots from Sunday's parliamentary election, Jim Lehrer talks to Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, about how a new government may impact the security situation and the drawdown of U.S. troops.]



7:50 AM, March 10, 2010

Blogger bg said...


صورة الاسبوع

Picture of the week


8:05 AM, March 10, 2010

Blogger bg said...


Dolly.. please tell me how much better
Iraq/is had it under Saddam & Sons??



8:07 AM, March 10, 2010

Blogger Don Cox said...

It should be explained to the Chinese reporter that a person's vote in an election is secret. This is essential if voting is to be free.

So he should not ask a named voter who he voted for. Exit polls do exist, but they are anonymous.

9:12 AM, March 10, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agree w/ Don Cox...Details about Nibras and his family are none of our business. Zhangle can take a hike.

12:21 PM, March 10, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any word on Aiham Alsammarae???

8:49 AM, March 12, 2010

Anonymous C. Jordan said...

Rumor on the net that Maliki was injured by assassins...


This true?

2:35 PM, March 15, 2010

Anonymous Jason said...

News report suggests that Sadr's candidates are beating SIIC within the INA. What is the significance of that, both in terms of forming governing coalition, and more generally?

I understand Sadr will not accept Maliki as PM? Would that force Maliki to look elsewhere for partners?

6:08 AM, March 16, 2010

Anonymous gj said...

You've gone quiet, Nibras? Is it looking like the UIA split is going to make Allawi the new prime minister?

5:20 PM, March 16, 2010

Anonymous amagi said...

Nibras, with his apparently infinite patience, is probably just waiting for the dust to settle. When the votes are counted and the seats are hashed out, he will post again.

8:35 PM, March 16, 2010

Anonymous gj said...

But we rely on Nibras to make the informed calls early. When he says nothing, we wonder. We also wonder about his old boss managing to empower the sadrists into a position where they can hold the 2010 government to ransom, whoever wins.

Of course we might also be being westernocentric, which is why we rely on Nibras to keep us on the straight and narrow.

11:08 PM, March 16, 2010

Anonymous amagi said...

Nibras may have many credible sources at his disposal, but neither he, nor they, know the contents of those ballot boxes. And that is an extremely good thing.

Of course, that doesn't stop me from stopping by daily, sometimes more than once, in the hopes of getting an update. But then, I'm an incredibly impatient person.

8:30 AM, March 17, 2010

Anonymous gj said...

I fear Nibras has abandoned us for Al Jazeera.

11:56 AM, March 17, 2010

Blogger bg said...



Contact: Megan Ortagus
March 17, 2010

863-398-6184 (cell)


ISW Projects Seats Won from Iraqi Elections Results

A new ISW fact sheet calculates the likely makeup of Iraq’s new parliament based on seat allocations from each province

Washington, D.C. – Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Research Director, Marisa Cochrane Sullivan, has published a two-page fact sheet that calculates the Iraqi parliamentary seats that will be likely allocated to the electoral coalitions based on the available data released from the Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC). Seats in the Iraqi Parliament are allocated province by province – not as a percentage of the national vote

“The race is extremely tight; Maliki’s election list has a slim lead but his return as the Prime Minister is not a done deal. He still needs to form a governing coalition with at least one other large block,” explained Mrs. Sullivan. “This will make for contentious negotiations. “

“Former Prime Minister and secular politician, Ayad al-Allawi, is currently in second place with his Iraqiyyah list, a coalition with cross sectarian parties,” said ISW President Kimberly Kagan. “If Maliki’s rivals ally with Allawi, we could see a new governing coalition and a new Prime Minister which could dramatically reshape Iraqi politics.”

Download the results: Iraq’s Preliminary Elections Results by Marisa Cochrane Sullivan

Key facts from the report:

* Currently, Prime Minister Maliki’s State of Law
coalition is in the lead with roughly 75-82 seats.
* Ayad al-Allawi’s Iraqiyyah list is in second with 66-74 seats.
* The predominantly-Shi’a Iraqi National
Alliance is in third with roughly 58-63 seats.
* Kurdistani List is in fourth with roughly 33-36 votes.

To receive the latest information on Iraq, stay
connected with ISW on facebook and twitter.


12:34 PM, March 17, 2010

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