Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Iraqi Election Analysis: First Take

I wrote a piece on the PM prospects of Allawi and Maliki for the Long War Journal. You can read it here.

I'll have more to say later.


Blogger Jon Claerbout said...

Wow! Somebody who knows what is actually going on. Thank you!

4:46 PM, March 27, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Encouraging! No government for months?

Can you do that for us here in the USA Nibras? It would actually help.

7:40 PM, March 27, 2010

Anonymous gj said...

On the contrary, the danger of this outcome was perfectly predictable once the shia party had divided and Allawi had united with Hiwar and al-Haadba. This is because the Tawafuq vote had collapsed after the prov election, so all those voters were available to him.

So are we to take it that in the blame game being played in the highest echelons of ISCI it is Prime Minister Maliki who is the villain because he was disinclined to defer to deal making and consensus? What a meanie, Nibras. Those poor, put upon, delicate violets of ISCI and Moqtada being trampled on like that.

Others might suggest that the blame lies with the highest echelons of ISCI themselves for not realising after Maliki's vote in provincial elections that the shia vote was going to be seriously split in this far more crucial election. Or being too arrogant to care.

Instead, they get into bed with the sadrists. Then not content with that, they then run a de-Baath exercise designed, they apparently think, to weaken Maliki and maximise their own vote. Unbelievable. Who did they think they were running against?

Did it not occur to them that the de-baath ambush would outrage, scare and unite the Sunni vote and that vote wouldn't go to UOI? And that Allawi and the Sunni parties had 21 extra juicy seats available to pocket in Ninewa, Anbar and Salahaddin as the result of the increase in and redistribution of seats in the COR? Unbelievable.

That that kind of exercise would only have made sense if the shia were running as a united front?

Ah hubris - a great, great leveller in politics. You might pass that on to Mr Chalabi.

2:24 AM, March 28, 2010

Anonymous Faisal Kadri said...

"following the election, attempts were made to establish what the phrase “the largest parliamentary bloc” actually means...Maliki had bet that he could circumvent this elastic definition by claiming that as head of the largest slate in parliament."
Nibras, you neglected to mention that it was the prime minister's office (Maliki) who submitted the question to the Supreme court on March 21, the vote distribution was clear by then, Maliki was not going to win the largest slate. If Maliki did not want the elastic ruling at this time all he needed to do is to refrain from submitting the request.

"580,000 voters in Baghdad alone who chose Maliki by name"
Probably not by name, votes without names go to the leader of the block.

10:47 AM, March 29, 2010

Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Faisal, you are mistaken on both counts:

-The court chose to respond to Maliki's request, even though Maliki may have wanted a different answer when he thought he was going to win, but there was an earlier inquiry filed with the court about the same topic, with the intent to pave the way for Allawi forming a government; this inquiry was orchestrated by the US embassy, and hasn't been reported on.

-Votes for the slate get counted towards the overall numbers of the slate, and do not automatically go to the head of the slate. Maliki's votes were all his own; voters chose the slate and the candidate. You can check several provinces where no. 1 on a slate did not receive the highest number of votes; to iheq.iq if they still have the breakdown of numbers for each candidate.

12:52 PM, March 29, 2010

Anonymous gj said...

"this inquiry was orchestrated by the US embassy, and hasn't been reported on."

So how big a part did Meghan O'Sullivan play in getting the sunni parties to unite behind Allawi? Being a woman (like moi heh heh) she would have seen the opportunity to outsmart Chalibi & co.

4:49 PM, March 29, 2010

Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi gj, I don't think Meghan is involved in such machinations anymore, especially given that she had left Iraq years ago and has been working in various roles in academia and in DC. I could be wrong; it's a name I haven't heard in a long time.

I think it would be more reasonable to say that more American effort (...of the discreet variety) went into building Bolani's coalition, and getting moderate Sunnis to align with him. The more extreme Sunnis rallied behind Hashemi-Mutlag-Nujaifi, who joined Allawi. That process happened organically, or was influenced by Syrian and other intervention. I know for example that Syria has significant influence on Mutlag, while Turkey has significant influence on Hashemi. At least in regards to this election, Syrian and Iranian agendas didn't seem to match.

5:01 PM, March 29, 2010

Anonymous gj said...

Thanks N. Syrian regime putting its mind to the democratic constitutional requirements in its most significant neighbour PLUS assessing the likely effect of a European-style PR electoral system in Iraq might be indicative of modernising-political sophistication at the top?

Very v interesting your comment about Syrian/Iranian agendas not matching in this regard.

btw - my money is still on Maliki to emerge triumphant. How about yours? AS I remember you accepted a bet many threads ago?

12:25 AM, March 30, 2010

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