Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Friday, March 05, 2010

Predictions

It is very difficult to make predictions about these elections. The unknowns are too many to factor in. A more prudent approach would be to keep my head down until all this passes over, but when have you known me to do that?

None of the following is scientific, but it is my foggy assessment, primarily based on Baghdad Province, of where people’s sentiments are. The limitations of such an assessment should be clear, so take it all with a grain of salt.

The top vote earner will be current PM Nouri al-Maliki, followed by Ayad Allawi’s slate. Maliki will get 10-15 more seats than Allawi. Maliki is still deriving his stature from his move against the Sadrists; Shia Iraqis of all classes remember him as someone who put an end to the Mahdi Army’s reign of terror and chaos. The Da’awa Party’s Islamist ideology—the vast majority of Maliki’s slate are Da’awa apparatchiks—does not matter to voters. If anything, they see Maliki, oddly, as an anti-Islamist. The charges of corruption, soft on Ba’athism, and general ineptitude did not stick to him, even though voters are cognizant that most executive positions throughout the state are filled with incompetent Da’awa guys.

Allawi has locked up the Sunni vote for the most part. Specifically, the Mutlag faction and Tareq al-Hashemi (current VP) have sold their constituency on the idea that their slate is the Sunnis’ sole protector. This Sunni coalescence around Allawi has strengthened him, leading to an after-effect of secular Shias lining up with him against the Islamists as the strongest candidate who can check their power. Well-financed campaigns also give an impression of strength, and that played a factor in brandishing Allawi as a strong comeback candidate.

The Iraqi National Alliance (Hakim, Ja’afari, Sadrists, Chalabi) will get less than half of Maliki’s seats. Even though they boast many prominent candidates, there seems to be a slide in their support. Their biggest vote earner is anti-Ba’athism, but it’s not enough to put them over the top. Their loss may be the biggest surprise of the elections. That said, what they are saying according to their own polling is that they will get at least twice as many votes as Maliki. The INA is counting on the Sadrists in Baghdad and Basra, but it seems to me that even Maliki is stronger in supposed Sadrist bastions like Sadr City.

Bolani’s slate looks strong on paper, but there has been an erosion of support over the past couple of weeks. Their principal Sunni voices, such as Ahmed Abu Risha and Ahmed al-Samara’i, are not running, and their bases of support gave way to Allawi’s momentum. Bolani has personally failed to be persuasive as a leader in his TV appearances, even though he has publicly put himself forward as a contender for the PM post. At one point he seemed as if he’ll get 22-25 seats, but now has dwindled to 10-12, maybe even less than that.

The Kurds will get around 62 seats, with 4/5 going to Barzani/Talabani and 1/5 going to the Goran slate and the Islamists.

The Commies, Mithal al-Alusi and Ayad Jamal-Eddin will each get less than a handful. Even though they matter in conversations and debates, they are seen as weak adversaries to the Islamists.

The Sunni Islamic Party is in serious trouble, walking away on a good day with about 5 seats.

What remains to be known is how many individual candidates in the provinces may make surprise wins based on their personal reputations, irrespective of slates. If 20-25 unknowns win on such a premise, then the parliament would be further divided even though they may have been candidates on big slates. They will see themselves as a group apart, having won on their own credentials.

The Iraqi voter is emerging from a trauma. The elements that would usually influence voters—corruption, reputations, efficiency, platforms, ideology—don’t sway the vote. Sunnis want someone who can save them from the fate of becoming second-class citizens, and Shias just want peace and quiet. Allawi’s slate satisfies the former, and Maliki reassures the latter. I don’t think either of these guys will become PM, but that’s a different post altogether. I think it will be very difficult to form a government around any of the characters now seen as potential PMs. The next PM needs to come from outside the political process: a male, a gray-haired gent, Shia, background as an administrator in the Iraqi state, secular, and supported by Najaf and the Kurds. This man will head a weak cabinet of technocrats, pending early elections at a time in the future when the political players resolve for a rematch. Day-to-day government will devolve unto local councils. There are only three or four persons who fit this bill.

24 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sounds like you are describing Ali Allawi.

10:03 AM, March 05, 2010

 
Anonymous DJ Elliott said...

Will it be a strong enough government to deal with the issue of 2012?

The ISF will not be ready by then...

http://home.comcast.net/~djyae/site/?/blog/view/55/

10:55 AM, March 05, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

or Chalabi

1:45 PM, March 05, 2010

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Neither Ali Allawi or Chalabi. Operative term is "outside the political process". It won't be someone we've seen in the limelight before.

Best,

Nibras

2:06 PM, March 05, 2010

 
Blogger Jason said...

Is there any chance of a coalition between the Allawi and Maliki blocks, or is that just wishful thinking?

2:55 PM, March 05, 2010

 
Anonymous salim said...

And your vote will be going to ???

11:44 PM, March 05, 2010

 
Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

I will be voting for Hamid al-Hilli. Slate 367 (National Scholars and Technocrats) no. 30. I like his plans to retrain young Iraqis with new managerial skills for the private sector, which he tested with thousands of trainees over the last few years in Baghdad.

Best,

Nibras

12:46 AM, March 06, 2010

 
Blogger Anand said...

Interesting choice Akhoiya Nibras.

Perhaps the most important criteria in this election is who can facilitate the most rapid non oil private sector growth.

2nd largest criteria; who can maximize oil and NG net revenue net present value.

3rd largest criteria: reducing corruption

4th largest criteria: increasing the funding and quality of the ISF;

Or so I think.

Whatever happens; I pray Iraq succeeds inshallah.

11:14 PM, March 06, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nibras, what a tease! Which three or four fit this bill?

9:17 AM, March 08, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GHD GHD
GHD Straighteners GHD Straighteners
GHD Hair Straighteners GHD Hair Straighteners
GHD IV Styler GHD IV Styler
GHD UK GHD UK
Ghd Hair Ghd Hair
Chi Flat Iron Chi Flat Iron
Chi Hair Chi Hair
Ceramic Chi Flat Iron Ceramic Chi Flat Iron
Chi Flat Irons Chi Flat Irons
Chi Hair iron Chi Hair iron
Ghd Iron Ghd Iron
Ghd Flat Iron Ghd Flat Iron
GHD IV MK4 Gold GHD IV MK4 Gold

G Star Raw G Star Raw
G Star G Star
Jeans G Star Jeans G Star
G Star sale G Star sale
G Star shop G Star shop
G Star jeans G Star jeans
G Star jacket G Star jacket
G Star t shirts G Star t shirts
G Star clothing G Star clothing
G Star shoes G Star shoes
G Star raw clothing G Star raw clothing
G Star raw jacket G Star raw jacket
G Star raw jeans G Star raw jeans
G Star raw denim G Star raw denim
G Star raw t shirts G Star raw t shirts
G Star raw shoes G Star raw shoes

uggs uggs
MBT MBT
abercrombie deutschland abercrombie deutschland
ugg boots ugg boots
thomas sabo thomas sabo
ugg boots ugg boots
ed hardy ed hardy
Abercrombie And Fitch Abercrombie And Fitch
tiffany jewelry tiffany jewelry

6:31 PM, April 21, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FUJITSU FPCBP83AP Laptop battery
FUJITSU 0644180 Laptop battery
FUJITSU FPCBP79 Laptop battery
FUJITSU 0644190 Laptop battery
FUJITSU FM 42 Laptop battery
FUJITSU FPCBP79AP Laptop battery
FUJITSU FMV-BIBLO-NB50J Laptop battery
FUJITSU FMV-BIBLO-NB75G Laptop battery
FUJITSU FMV-LifeBook-C6200 Laptop battery
FUJITSU FMV-BIBLO-NB80J Laptop battery
FUJITSU LifeBook A3040 Laptop battery
FUJITSU FMV-BIBLO-NB55J Laptop battery
FUJITSU LifeBook C2000 Laptop battery
FUJITSU Lifebook C2310 Series Laptop battery
FUJITSU Lifebook C2320 Series Laptop battery
FUJITSU Lifebook C2330 Series Laptop battery
FUJITSU Lifebook C2340 Series Laptop battery
FUJITSU FMV-BIBLO-NC13D Laptop battery

11:35 AM, August 03, 2010

 
Blogger polo shirts said...

History of polo ralph lauren. Polo fashions had its humble beginnings in 1968 when tie salesman Ralph Lauren gave it a kick start. By 1969 he had a boutique polo ralph lauren factory stores within the Manhattan department store Bloomingdale's. ... Brands and luxury standard. Since Ralph Lauren's first brand, Polo Ralph Lauren, was launched, the company has expanded to include a variety of luxury brands such as Polo Golf, Polo Denim, Polo Sport. You can buy cheap Ralph Lauren Clothing at Ralph Lauren outlet.Also We provide polo shirts
Ralph Lauren polo shirt, 50% OFF! polo ralph lauren outlet online is your best choice!In 2006, polo ralph lauren outlet became the first designer in Wimbledon's 133-year history to create official uniforms for the tournament. As part of this year's event, which starts next week, polo ralph lauren sale will introduces the first ... determination to maintain and enhance the values for which our two brands are famous throughout the world. The rugby ralph lauren brand brings to Wimbledon the look of timeless elegance, drawing on our rich history and traditions

12:41 AM, August 09, 2010

 
Blogger 2011bagnews said...

And it comes with the cheap sunglasses razor sharp clarity qkxccxy0vxg and protection of adidas sunglasses 's HIGH DEFINITION OPTICS (HDO).Grab the wholesale sunglasses Polarized Sunglasses from gascan mens. High Definition Optics (HDO) combines patented discount sunglasses optics and Plutonite lens material that provides 100% UV filtering and unsurpassed impact protection. Two lenses are cut from the adidas sunglasses curve of a single lens shield, and then mounted in the frame to maintain the original, continuous contour. The look is so unique that cebe sunglasses customized their corporate logo just for these Cocoons Sunglasses . Lightweight O Matter frame material offers premium comfort. ofxeiibdise

8:19 PM, April 15, 2011

 
Blogger MulberryNews said...

Famous The movies Oakley Sunglasses Outlet superstars who vftbieg are well-known with regard to their higher Half X sensibility to style richly present Oakley Stpl Jawbone clear of this tendency. Oversized Oakley Jawbone are capturing consideration interior previous all this pattern has as a final point used it is Sale Oakley Sunglasses soil typically. But as per style pioneers opt for the just almost Oakley Sunglasses Discount which meets you very good. A extensive a number of Half X Oakley which might be during come july 1st time Oakley Sunglasses Cheap might be viewed featuring with many colour and might be viewed in numerous outlines in addition to sizes.

8:59 PM, July 22, 2011

 
Blogger MulberryNews said...

Isn't really that will easy? naturally vytrqpn of course. Developing Oakley Sunglasses Cheap a most up-to-date health professional Half X Oakley prescribed taking place, you'll be able to decide on which ever Oakley Sunglasses Discount that suits you, along with the opticians will likely present you with Sale Oakley Sunglasses a number of idea what is the best form of economical Oakley Jawbone go well with your current eye-sight just. These are plenty Oakley Stpl Jawbone cheaper when compared with those with your enterprise look, considering that opticians aren't required to commit your enable through Half X the residences. numerous folks could possibly speculate set up quality involving Oakley sunglasses can be confirmed. The Oakley Sunglasses Outlet tend not to actually represent large explanation solution.

2:20 AM, July 25, 2011

 
Blogger MulberryNews said...

The many types of vbaghnm wrapa Oakley Frogskins get not deserted their fashion along with acceptance. This summer, your wrapa Oakley Frogskin using complete along with fine design and style happens returning straight into fashion yet again, containing depicted your riches along with high-class involving girls frankly. Firmoo's give back along with repayment insurance would likely create your current obtain using Firmoo risk-free. examine out and about each of our $8 Cheap Oakley Sunglasses, $10 along with thirty greenback Oakley Jawbone support frames to suit your funds along with sight requires. Since first design Oakley Jawbones, these are acknowledged by simply numerous men and women.

2:23 AM, July 26, 2011

 
Blogger Half X Oakley said...

Zero matter precisely what vgebhty target you would like to decide on way up your current Oakley Frogskins pertaining to, you'll be able to simply track down valuable Oakley Frogskin, exclusively made in whole acquiescence for ones made to order features. A new correct occasion involving significant productivity technological innovation, significant fashion, along with invincible excellent are generally depicted by simply almost Cheap Oakley Sunglasses involving brand name Oakley Jawbone. Aside from smartening way up your current seems to be, Oakley Jawbones in addition provide incomparable technological innovation.

11:35 PM, July 26, 2011

 
Anonymous Stockmeds.com said...

It's just amazing.... Thanks very much for the share & keep posting such an informative articles. I'm looking forward to your blog. Thanks!

8:55 AM, September 28, 2011

 
Anonymous generic viagra for men said...

you did really great informative post thanks for sharing....

6:20 AM, November 08, 2011

 
Blogger دردشة ومنتديات عراقنا said...


شات عراقنا
دردشة عراقنا
جات عراقنا
عراقنا
شات كيكه
جات
دردشة عبدالله
شات العراق
منتدى عراقنا
منتدى دردشة عراقنا

3:52 AM, October 22, 2012

 
Anonymous website designing company said...

Your blog article is very intersting and fanstic,at the same time the blog theme is unique and perfect,great job.

10:01 PM, October 15, 2013

 
Anonymous Cara Download Video Dari Youtube said...

hei gan, thanks uda kasih info yang keren..
ditunggu loh kunjungan balik nya :)

waptrick
Kata Kata Bijak
Sepatu Pantofel | Jaket Kulit

7:47 PM, November 27, 2013

 
Anonymous jaring safety said...

The article posted was very informative and useful
thanks for sharing..
jaring futsal | jaring golf | jaring kassa / jaring polynet | jaring pengaman proyek | jaring pengaman bangunan | jaring pengaman gedung | jaring gawang | jaring paranet / jaring tanaman | jaring safety |
jaring proyek | jaring bangunan | jaring gedung | jaring outbound | jaring truk | tali tambang |
jaring pengaman | jaring golf murah | jaring futsal murah | jaring truk sawit | jaring pengaman nylon | cargo net |


3:00 PM, November 25, 2015

 
Anonymous obat tradisional ginjal bengkak said...

cara menyembuhkan puru
obat mata minus
patah tulang
cara menghilangkan benjolan di ketiak
obat alternatif penyakit gula
obat alternatif jantung
cara mengobati kista
cara mengobati hepatitis
obat stroke
kulit kepala mengelupas
suplemen glucoberry ginjal bengkak
penyebab ginjal bengkak
obat campak
pengapuran tulang

11:35 PM, December 27, 2015

 

Post a Comment

<< Home