Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Marked Decrease in Al-Qaeda Operations

Here’s a novel thread on jihadist discussion forums: Why has there been a marked decrease in operations conducted by Al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq?

The latest biweekly report from the ISI for the period of August 1 to August 15 about its operations throughout Iraq shows that their capacity for violence has been degraded significantly, leading some ‘concerned’ jihadist voices to ask, “Why?”

The Al-Hesbah site is down, but I got my copy from Al-Ekhlaas.

It should be noted that such tallies put out by Al-Qaeda tend to be accurate: it is very important for their own self-image to believe that they are telling the truth, rather than inflating alleged ‘victories’ as was, and is, the nature of the Arabic Nationalism—an ideology they abhor.

So why is the ISI faltering? Well, you’d need to sift through the archives of this blog starting October 2006 to get a detailed and nuanced answer; it’s been 313 days since the Islamic State of Iraq was declared. And yes, I’m pretty smug about myself for predicting these trends.

Two months ago, the ISI could claim over 900 operations in its biweekly reports, and now they're down to under 200. If that isn’t a measure of progress in Iraq—one that the enemy itself is acknowledging—then what is?

These downward trends are reflected across all insurgent groups operating in Iraq, and it should be noted that a couple of months ago 70 percent of the total violence done in Iraq was credited to Al-Qaeda.

This is all very relevant in light of the predictably bleak NIE report leaked yesterday; US intelligence services are still throwing up their arms in despair.

Remember the Marine Intelligence report for Ramadi leaked through the Washington Post on November 28, 2006? It concluded that “the U.S. military is no longer able to defeat a bloody insurgency in western Iraq or counter al-Qaeda’s rising popularity there.” Today, Ramadi is safer than Basra, which is saying much.

Wouldn’t it be nice if major news bureaus would take another look at these trends ahead of the Petraeus report? Maybe then some members of Congress, ‘experts’ and presidential candidates wouldn’t sound so misinformed…


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good stuff. I hope someone is listening. Your blog fills an important gap on Iraq in the news cycle.

9:43 AM, August 24, 2007

Blogger bg said...


please pardon if a repeat, believe i may have
posted this in the wrong thread previously..

Showcase and Chimera in the Desert

["America good! Al Qaeda bad!" he said in halting English, flashing a thumb's-up in the direction of America's second-ranking commander in Iraq.]

HT : The Mudville Gazettte

Ramadi: Open for Business


["This place is dynamic! The people are working 'round the clock, and it's all positive," said Kristen Hagerstrom, leader of the ePRT (embedded Provincial Reconstruction Team) based in Ramadi. Mrs. Hagerstom spent an hour talking with OnPoint Sunday about the economic and administrative successes in the city.

When 1st Battalion, 6th Marines left Ramadi in June, they'd successfully cleared the city of Al-Quada, and formed a successful partnership with Sheik Sattar al-rishi and his newly-formed "Sons of Anbar." Long before terms like "The Surge" and "Clear-Hold-Build" entered the Pentagon and American public's vocabulary; 1/ 6 Marines had fought and cleared Ramadi and established outposts at 17th Street, the Government Center, Khatanna, and others, and then turned them over to their enthusiastic Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police replacements.

"…and we arrived in April at a perfect time," Mrs. Hagerstrom continued. "the city just had experienced thirteen days without a shot being fired, Mayor Latif was coming into his own as a mayor, and the Sunni's were volunteering to join the police in record numbers." Her ePRT Team arrived soon after 1st BCT, 3rd ID (under Col John Charleton) formally took over Ramadi. 1st BCT's 6,000 Army, Marines, Navy, and Air Force have aggressively and successfully continued to expand these newly positive dynamics.

The Provisional Reconstruction Teams are part of Gen. David Petraeus's counter-insurgency strategy; keep the people employed, get them a salary, and they'll be too busy working being heads of households again to be insurgents.]

[But what is happening these days is possible because of the relations between the Sunnis in Ramadi and Anbar, as led by Sheik Sattar. As he said this winter when being visited by Deputy Under Secretary of State John Negroponte :

I would like to convey greetings from the
Sons of Anbar to the American people.

I want to give my condolences for the American blood shed in the Anbar Province to the American people, and I ask the Army and Marines to stay because we would be an easy target for terrorists. Stay until we gain our strength, and then staying is up to you.


10:14 AM, August 24, 2007

Blogger bg said...


wonder if they keep as accurate a tab
on all the innocents they slaughter.. :(


10:29 AM, August 24, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nebras, please check this link.


and these two as well:


and you can watch the CNN report on the second link.

8:58 PM, August 24, 2007

Blogger Don Cox said...

I think there is a big danger of declaring victory against Al Qaeda in Iraq (or anywhere), and then relaxing our guard. This well-funded organisation is run by intelligent strategists, and they have shown a consistent ability to rethink, regroup, and invent effective new tactics. The current situation may be a remission rather than the beginning of a cure.

3:20 AM, August 25, 2007

Blogger bg said...


Don Cox @ 3:20 AM, August 25, 2007

that is very true.. AQ (an offspring of The Muslim Brotherhood) et al were well established in over 60 countries before we even went into Afghanistan..

however, if we do not claim some assemblance of victory over AQ in Iraq.. they surely will over us.. and being the MSM has been their greatest propaganda tool, it would most certainly be flaunted.. hence, promote even more jihad.. :(


10:43 AM, August 25, 2007

Blogger Louise said...

Mr. Kasimi, I sure would like to know what you make of this

"Let me take a wild guess. I think Maliki and the Iraqi leadership have agreed upon a BIG PLAN to isolate and defeat the Iranian/KKK presence in Baghdad. To this end Iraqs Sunni vice president is spending time in Ankara, while Iraqi PM Maliki is spending time in Damascus. Support from Turkey and Syria is essential for this plan, which delivers a major blow to Iran, whose influence in Iraq would plummet.

Meanwhile, top UN officials are floating trial balloons about introducing UN forces to Baghdad (see Sundays Wash. Post). At the same time Frances Foreign Minister, on the first(!) official visit to Baghdad since Saddams downfall, now echoes the UN line, as does Muqtada al-Sadr.

Against all odds, is something good for the US beginning to happen in Iraq?"

12:27 PM, August 25, 2007

Blogger Louise said...

And this?

5:08 PM, August 25, 2007

Blogger bg said...



thought you might enjoy this,
got it from a poster @ ITM..

We Will Decisively Win in Iraq...in 2008

follow the links to Iraq Index..


11:00 PM, August 25, 2007

Blogger bg said...


sorry to go OT again.. but just had to share.. :)

Iraqi Infrastructure Gets Major Boost

Haider Ajina comments on the latest developments:


[The electricity situation in Iraq is also improving.

The demand (for electricity) has increased more than 70 percent since 2004 because the people of Iraq are purchasing more energy intensive products like air conditioners, refrigerators, computers and other electronic devices, and that is good. U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh said in a press conference on August 23. He added, ‘The goal is to have an equitable distribution of power across Iraq. Although Baghdad is receiving less power now then it did before the war, the rest of Iraq is getting more. Power distribution centers across Iraq are becoming operational. A power plant in Daura recently became fully operational for the first time since 2001. A gas turbine plant in Musayyib will be operational within months providing another 400 megawatts of electricity for the Iraq power grid, Walsh said. At the same conference Dr. Karim Walid, the Iraqi Minister of Electricity, said The Ministry of Electricity plans to allocate $40 million a year for the next four years. The ministry plans to repair existing power plants and build other plants across Iraq. Power plants in Hurriyah, Al-Kudis and al-Telgi will be rebuilt and a plant will be placed in Nasariyah, he added. “Iraq needs approximately 9,500 megawatts. We will reach 5,400 megawatts in the next few months.” Walid said. This goes hands in hand with the increased security along the oil pipe lines in Iraq.

Much of this progress is due to the sacrifices, back breaking work and tireless efforts of our men and women serving in Iraq and the dedicated Iraqis willing and ready to step up and take charge.

We are creating the breathing room to allow the Iraqis
to take over their affairs in an ever increasing fashion.]


1:24 AM, August 26, 2007

Blogger bg said...


welcomed news.. :)

A Fatwa Against Violence


[This gathering was a truly historic event, given the authority of the participants -- including Sheikh Ahmed al Kubaisi, acknowledged by all Iraqis as the senior Sunni religious authority (the weekly audience for his Friday sermons, broadcast from Dubai, number 20 million), and Ayatollah Sayyid Ammar Abu Ragheef, chief of staff for Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani, the acknowledged leader of the Shia community in Iraq and beyond. One has only to consider the power of these specific religious leaders, and the instruments at their disposal for getting results, to grasp the gathering's enormous potential importance.

Going well beyond traditional rhetoric in their closing statement late last week, they stated their intention to work for the early issuance of a joint Sunni-Shia fatwa to the Iraqi people. A fatwa such as this will carry the force of law for all followers. Think about that. After more than four years of brutal warfare and untold suffering, the leading religious authorities in Iraq have joined hands and said "Enough," and have committed to use their authority to bring peace to their country.]

God Bless All those involved in fighting this
malignant scourge that plagues the planet!!


11:04 AM, August 26, 2007

Blogger bg said...


may be posting this in the wrong thread, but
i don't want it to get lost down below.. ;)


Iraqi PM Maliki Informs Hillary &
Levin on Meaning of Democracy


[Iraq's prime minister has hit back at senior US politicians who have called for him to be removed from office. Nouri Maliki singled out senators Hillary Clinton and Carl Levin.

He said the Democratic senators were acting as if Iraq was "their property" and that they should "come to their senses" and "respect democracy".]

hah, the anti-Iraq Liberationists called for you to go
Maliki, and you went, i say, WAY TO GO MALIKI!! :+:


11:32 AM, August 26, 2007

Blogger bg said...


Iraq's leaders agree on key U.S. benchmarks


[BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's top Shi'ite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders announced on Sunday they had reached consensus on some key laws that Washington views as vital to fostering national reconciliation.

The appearance of Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Iraqi television with the other leaders was a rare show of public unity amid crumbling support for the prime minister's government.

The other officials at the news conference were President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi; Shi'ite Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and Masoud Barzani, president of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.

Iraqi officials said the leaders had signed an agreement on easing restrictions on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party joining the civil service and military.

"They signed a new draft on debaathification,"
said Yasin Majid, a media adviser to Maliki.

Other officials said consensus had been reached on holding provincial elections and releasing many detainees who have been held without charge, a key demand of Sunni Arabs since the majority are members of their sect.

Majeed said the leaders also endorsed a draft oil law,
which has already been agreed by the cabinet but has
not yet gone to parliament.]


4:22 PM, August 26, 2007

Blogger Tapline said...

Excellent posts. I have not visited this site for quite some time and it looks as if I have missed much. I posted on another post here, but I think it got swallowed in Neverland. Many shia/Sunni religious leaders met a couple of days ago in Cairo, Egypt and sign a concensus on no more terriorism etc. This meeting will be followed up in a couple of weeks by Sistani in Najaf. I ramble....stay well...

7:29 PM, August 26, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

[ He said the Democratic senators were acting as if Iraq was "their property" and that they should "come to their senses" and "respect democracy". ]

The Maliki puppet government is fully owned by the United States,
they are dogs on a leash, not a sovereign country

The entire world is disgusted with their treason: people from Western Europe, South America, Japan.
I even saw an American comment on a video showing the execution of Iraqi puppet forces: "That's what they get for stabbing their country in the back."
True indeed.

Let us always keep in mind who it was that ruined the American project in Iraq,
who took it from "Mission Accomplished" to "Fiasco".
It wasn't the voters, it was the Iraqi Resistance.

2:48 PM, August 27, 2007

Blogger bg said...



whine, grumble, bark, whine, grumble,
bark, whine, grumble, bark, etc, etc..


4:10 PM, August 27, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's a well known fact that the fake Iraqi government answers to Washington.
And now this horse's bottom Nuri al-Maliki (dead man walking) attempts to prove that wrong by -- get this -- attacking the American opposition.

Which would be like Hezbollah trying to prove it isn't connected with Syria, by attacking the Syrian democratic opposition

As for your imaginary gains on the ground, let's use your own figures;
Dead American aggressors:

July 2003 - 48
July 2004 - 54
July 2005 - 54
July 2006 - 43
July 2007 - 79

Where is your progress, there is none. And your failed surge will be dead by April either way
along with another 1000 crusaders

There will also be an event in the next 6 weeks, you heard it here first

5:51 AM, August 28, 2007

Blogger bg said...


anyone who who judges a war based soley on one sides
loss.. might have been more useful had they been born
an Ostrich..


9:18 AM, August 28, 2007

Blogger bg said...


lol.. heard it here first says jbp.. yep, an Ostrich..


9:19 AM, August 28, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Heh heh heh. Whatever you say jaguar.

Your AQ goons are getting slowly & methodically their holy butts kicked. But if you don't want to acknowledge this, so be it. It will make your demise all the more enjoyable for us here.

1:53 PM, August 28, 2007

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Peace upon the good and decent people.

I am here always to strike against the terrorist and perverted criminals like the prostitutionally inclined Jaguar Big Pimping.

This young child (abused by gay men when very young) cannot speak Arabic and proves his stories by talking about a stupid American comment on a stupid video. This is childish and ridiculous.

I want everyone to see what Jaguar Bitch Prostitute wrote:

Let us always keep in mind who it was that ruined the American project in Iraq,
who took it from "Mission Accomplished" to "Fiasco".
It wasn't the voters, it was the Iraqi Resistance.

So you see the majority of Iraqis voted. But this jackass like his terrorist heroes do not care about the majority of Iraqis. Also you see they are proud of how Iraq is burning (a “Fiasco”). Sick bastards should be expelled from Iraq or buried in graves that are protected to prevent spread of the gay viruses that they are carrying in their blood. Or fed to rabid dogs.

9:44 AM, August 29, 2007

Blogger bg said...


just thought i'd share this enlightening 'on the ground' report.. :)

This Isn't Civil War


[I see no civil war between the Shias and Sunnis as I travel practically every day on the roads of Iraq with my Arab and Kurdish security team. The potential for renewed internecine warfare faded earlier this year, when al Qaeda failed to reignite the waning sectarian struggle the second time around with another attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra.]

[Both the Sunni and Shia Arab sides of the Iraqi political equation (the Kurds have sided with us from the beginning) now see that there is no alternative to American protection. As a result, Sadr's people and the Sunnis have both returned to parliament. As always, democracy is messy, but it is working. We have to be patient, particularly because this nascent reconciliation has left al Qaeda as the odd man out.

Just as the rockets landing in the Green Zone are from a foreign source -- Iran -- the jihadis who destroy themselves in explosions aimed primarily at mass killings of Shia civilians are almost all foreigners. This is al Qaeda, not Iraq.

Even more to the point: The Iraqis basically ignore the al Qaeda car bombs, mourn the dead and then go to work, to school, join and continue to serve in the military and police -- and life goes on. There is no terror if no one is terrorized.]

and since cowards are prone to weeping.. of course
it will make jaguar b.p. aka: Ostrich cry like a baby..


10:30 AM, August 29, 2007

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