Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Cat’s Out of the Bag: Onwards to Maysan

Well I guess enough people are openly discussing this now in Baghdad that it’s okay for me to write about it. Mind you, all the following is classified under the category of gossip:

The Iraqi Army and the Marines are preparing for a major campaign against Mahdi Army and Iranian targets in Maysan Province (‘Amara). Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki may even put the entire elected leadership of ‘Amara—many of whom are Sadrists—out of a job, by flexing his authority under emergency powers. There is even talk of air strikes against military targets—weapons depots, transportation vehicles and individuals—on the Iranian side of the fence; these are targets that are arming and otherwise supporting the Special Groups throughout Iraq.

Iran’s logistics trail goes from Maysan through southern Babil/Hillah Province (al-Hamza) and from there into central Iraq, i.e. Baghdad. There’s another route also going from Maysan into Qurnah and then onto Basra. The southern route has been effectively crippled. And the last stretch of the northern route that used to take weapons from south-western Baghdad all around to Sadr City has also been shut down.

Mind you, the information is murky and sometimes contradictory. For example, it seems that Iran has denied entry to several top ranking Special Groups and Mahdi Army commanders that only a few months ago Iran was playing host to. As a consequence, there’s been a glut of high-level and mid-level Sadrists bidding their time in Amara.

Now, Maysan is a weird place: even after draining the marshes in the early 1990s, Saddam could not claim full control of the province. And ever since the late 1980s, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has maintained forward bases deep inside Iraqi territory, such as ones around the town of Al-Mijerr al-Kabir. Iraqi opposition groups were active in these areas right up to the fall of the regime. Furthermore, Iran had a large recruiting pool among Marsh Arab refugees who lived in camps almost right across the border.

The talked-about airstrikes would take out forward Iranian border stations that have recently been moved into Iraqi territory, especially around oil fields. Then there are weapons depots of rockets, advanced RPGs and assorted weaponry right near the border (…on the Iranian side, though) that are on the target list, as well as buildings and Iranian individuals involved in facilitating logistics for the SGs, also on the Iranian side.

Although this has gone largely unreported, but US airstrikes were busily taking out Iranian trucks smuggling arms through Maysan within the first three weeks after Operation Cavalry Charge. I’m not sure, but some Iranian citizens may have been killed as a result. The new target list is a stepped-up extension of this bombing trend. It would also break the taboo over launching bombing runs against nuclear and terrorist facilities deeper into Iranian territory.

Of course, this is all still in “preparation” phase. It is unclear whether the Iraqis and Americans will go through with all or any of it. And given that it’s all out in the open, it could be US PSY-OPS to scare the Iranians away from backing the SGs.

But arrest warrants for Maysan officials are being prepared, and intelligence is being gathered about other Sadrist leaders who have gone into hiding there.

I expect the battle for Maysan to be difficult: this would be Iran’s last stand in Iraq. The fighting would also be occurring on topographical and human terrain that the Iranians have been studying and cultivating for decades. It could start incrementally, and the ante could be raised as the operation faces increased resistance, eventually leading to bombing runs inside Iran.

But then again, Sadrist morale is very low—even with all the squeaking and squawking we’ve been hearing from the press—and the Iranians seem unwilling to confront an outgoing American president itching for a parting shot.

It should be noted that the vast majority of Sadrist support in Baghdad and Basra comes from families that trace their roots to Maysan Province. Furthermore, Maysan is home to the largest concentration of Iraqi tribes with unknown Arab ancestry—most likely remnants of pre-Islamic ethnic groups and whatever was left in the wake of rebellions by black slaves and gypsies in ‘Abbasid times.

In other news, I have a couple of big projects that I need to finish (…I think regulars at TG will like them when they’re finally done) so blogging will be light until further notice.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

If they do this, it will be big because they will be using the forces of the state to take over the ELECTED government of the province via military action?

Could set an uncomfortable precedent for the future I suggest?

Has Maysan Province been subjected to crooks, criminals, Sadrist militias and bad govt since the Sadrists were elected in 2005? Has the Sadrist governor lost the support of the people? If so, the Iraqi govt I guess might have some argument for extending the government's writ ... but if not, it could get very nasty.

3:33 PM, May 24, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...


could you add some informations about those "arab tribes" with unknown history?

You got probably a grip on such sources in Arabic

8:01 PM, May 24, 2008

Blogger Jeff said...

When the counternarrative of "insurgents lying low" begins to lose its force, what do you think the next one will be for the media? I mean, they can't just switch to a narrative of "Gosh! Bush won that doggone war in the end!!"

My prediction is the last counternarrative will be: the Iraqi Government is chock full of human rights abuses. Look for lots of stories about how prisoners are being tortured in Iraqi jails, freedom of expression for Sadrists and jihadists is being curtailed, election shortcomings, etc., etc.

It's already begun in a small way and this is the usual method for cutting US support to governments and bringing them down.

8:01 PM, May 25, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...


No matter whether a provincial government is elected or not, they are not above the law. For example, if the governor of a state in the United States and several legislators in that state were to become involved in sumggling, weapons trafficking, assassinations, etc., the US military and police would most certainly be justified in moving aggressively against them.

Jeff, it most certainly wouldn't surprise me if that's the case. However, I think that the media's bias has become so readily apparent over the past four years that very few people who are "on the fence" re: the Iraq war will be swayed by them. Nothing succeeds like success, and the fact that we are now clearly winning this war can't be denied.

8:34 PM, May 26, 2008

Blogger David M said...

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the blog post From the Front: 05/29/2008 News and Personal dispatches from the front lines.

11:52 AM, May 29, 2008

Blogger Ric Locke said...

I have a theory which I would like to run by a knowledgeable person like yourself, since I may be proceeding from misinformation.

Background: 1980-88 Iraq and Iran had a war, launched by Saddam, in which the two sides pretty well fought one another to a standstill. To the extent anybody "won" it was Iran, but neither side really got anything out of it. Conclusion: at that time, the armies of Iraq and Iran were pretty comparable in capability.

In 2003 the United States invaded, and walked over the Iraqi army without much noticing the speed bumps. Since then, the US has made much of its efforts to train up the Iraqi army.

Now: suppose Maliki decided to repeat 1980, but this time with an army operating at, say, a quarter to a third of American capability. Hey, if nothing else it'd be a tremendous bonding exercise for a multiethnic force.

It seems to me that Iran would get very much the worst of it. Could it be that this is at least part of the Iranian motive for meddling -- less an exercise in religious influence than a very real, Clausewitzian fear? If I were an Iranian General it would worry me.


8:22 PM, May 29, 2008

Anonymous Anonymous said...



7:14 PM, April 28, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...




10:10 AM, June 18, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作兼差打工假日兼職兼職工作學生兼差兼差打工兼差日領工作晚上兼差工作酒店工作酒店上班酒店打工兼職兼差兼差工作酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作特種行業內容,想找打工假日兼職兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!



12:37 AM, August 27, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello, everybody. I am a new hand to be here. So nice to meet you all. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1:45 AM, October 29, 2009

Blogger polo shirts said...

History of polo ralph lauren. Polo fashions had its humble beginnings in 1968 when tie salesman Ralph Lauren gave it a kick start. By 1969 he had a boutique polo ralph lauren factory stores within the Manhattan department store Bloomingdale's. ... Brands and luxury standard. Since Ralph Lauren's first brand, Polo Ralph Lauren, was launched, the company has expanded to include a variety of luxury brands such as Polo Golf, Polo Denim, Polo Sport. You can buy cheap Ralph Lauren Clothing at Ralph Lauren outlet.Also We provide polo shirts
Ralph Lauren polo shirt, 50% OFF! polo ralph lauren outlet online is your best choice!In 2006, polo ralph lauren outlet became the first designer in Wimbledon's 133-year history to create official uniforms for the tournament. As part of this year's event, which starts next week, polo ralph lauren sale will introduces the first ... determination to maintain and enhance the values for which our two brands are famous throughout the world. The rugby ralph lauren brand brings to Wimbledon the look of timeless elegance, drawing on our rich history and traditions

12:34 AM, August 09, 2010

Blogger aa said...


12:04 PM, March 01, 2011

Blogger Unknown said...

ed hardy uk
moncler online
coach outlet online
basket nike femme
ralph lauren uk
kate spade outlet
coach factory outlet
nike huarache
basketball shoes
tennessee titans jersey

6:08 PM, June 10, 2018


Post a Comment

<< Home