Unconventional thinking about the Middle East.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Appearance on Aljazeera

iI appeared live on Aljazeera Satellite Channel this morning to comment on the U.S. troop withdrawal from the remaining Iraqi cities along with 'Ibrahim al-Shimmeri', the spokesman for the 'Islamic Army in Iraq' insurgent group, and Liqa' Makki, an Iraqi analyst based in Qatar, who seems sympathetic to the insurgents.

The fourth guest was supposed to be 'Abu Muhammad', the spokesman for the Ba'ath Party, but he pulled out for some reason.

Al-Shimmeri was introduced as speaking from Baghdad, although I doubt it. Together with Makki, the two other guests tried to chalk up the withdrawal to the victory of the 'resistance'. They are even under the impression that the 'resistance' brought President Obama to power.

Whereas I said that the troop withdrawal today is the result of a U.S. and Iraqi victory against the 'mutinous' insurgents (...yeah, it sounds worse in Arabic). I added that groups like the Islamic Army, contrary to groups like Al-Qaeda, didn't have an agenda other than bringing back a system that gives Sunnis unrepresentational power. The violence they unleashed was designed to twist the arm of the Americans so as to negotiate. The end result is that the demands were too unrealistic and the insurgency was militarily depleted, diminished and defeated. The story of the Iraqi insurgency and its end is one of defeat by attrition, more than any other factor such as political reconciliation.

Anyway, I thought it was funny that I was openly speaking from Baghdad, from Abu Nawwas Street, while the mouth organs for the 'resistance' were in exile or in hiding. Oh, and I got a free PhD to boot, 'Dr. Nibras' this and 'Dr. Nibras' that. Grad school is for suckers.

UPDATE: My mom made this point about the four U.S. soldiers who were killed last night: it's extra saddening because they were so close to finishing up their duties in Iraq, and their families were expecting back home soon. I'm not sure whether this is the same event, but there was a 15 minute fire fight yesterday in the Binook area (northeastern Baghdad) after someone opened fire on a congregation of American soldiers. They were there to check out a site where only the day before a car bomb had gone off targeting a U.S. vehicle patrol. I know this place very well. On one side of the street are long established middle class residents, while on the other is an illegal slum built up within half-finished apartment blocks that were supposed to be distributed to academics. The slum is rife with organized crime rings (drugs, kidnappings, prostitution) associated with the Mahdi Army. The Americans had conducted several security sweeps of the area in the past few years, but the only solution is to mass evict the squatters.

UPDATE (Wednesday, July 1, 2009): I received some more information about the incident at Binook and it seems that it was not the spot where the four U.S. soldiers were killed. The incident occurred after an elderly civil servant living in a row of houses opposite the slum spotted some movement on a nearby rooftop which he took for a burglary, so he started shooting in the air to ward off what he believed were thieves. It turned out they were U.S. soldiers who began to shoot back, and this lasted for a while. The man was arrested.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

the four U.S. soldiers who were killed last night: it's extra saddening
because they were so close to finishing up their duties in Iraq, and their families were expecting back home soon.

I think you mean extra joyous

9:44 AM, June 30, 2009

Anonymous Tom D said...

The oil auction today appears to have been a disaster due to unrealistic Oil Minstry expectations and probable early learning curve issues. I'm sure that will remedy itself in due course but the fact of it will discourage some smaller players from bidding for a while yet.

Yes, President Bush won the war but motormouth Obama will take the credit as he does for everything from the economy to flowers blooming. His resemblance to Bob Mugabe in all things grows ever more striking.

Anyway, congratulations to Iraq on its new urban freedom. We all hope it can and will be maintained.

1:54 PM, June 30, 2009

Anonymous C. Jordan said...

"I thought it was funny that I was openly speaking from Baghdad, from Abu Nawwas Street, while the mouth organs for the 'resistance' were in exile or in hiding."

I was thinking the same thing before you said it. Great work Nabras!

Stay safe, and keep these fantastic reports coming.

2:18 PM, June 30, 2009

Anonymous Matt Delventhal said...

I would be interested in hearing what you have to say about the connection between June 30th and the Great Iraqi Revolt of 1920. Not much has been said about this in the Western press, for good reasons, I think.

The 1920 Revolt and Today - The Symoblism of June 30th

11:58 PM, June 30, 2009

Anonymous V said...

Caught only the last minutes...any chance I can catch it online ? LookING great doc :)

4:15 AM, July 01, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great story, N.K.


Now excuse me...

Hey Jaguar,

Bring it on, you coward.

Unless I misread "extra joyous". Pardon me if I somehow got it wrong.

Jahil irhabi ghaba. Well, wannabe irhabi, I think. I can't find wannabe in Arabic ;-)

4:42 AM, July 01, 2009

Anonymous Peter said...

I like the reporting of Nibras; although he, as I understand, is opposing an Islamic State on Iraqs soil like the State proposed of ISI, he writes objectively and unbiased of the insurgency.

In my opinion, IAI basically ruined themselves when they rejected the invitation of the MSC to become a founding member of ISI (due to differing ideologies, nationalism against islam"ism", it would hardly been possible anyway). IAI thought they were a militia strong enough to influence US foreign policy, especially after they supported the formation of the Sahwa, but the US just used them as pawns to fight other insurgent groups that posed a greater risk to US interests.

What is your objective expectation on the insurgency in Iraq, Nibras?

Do you believe it has starved beyond a point of no return?

Some analysts expect a civil war to break out between the four great factions (Nationalist/Secular "sunnis" allied with some baathist elements, Shiites, Islamists, Kurds) soon.

As far as I understand, the Baath resistance has largely ceased and lives on ridiculous verbal threats like Douris "March on Baghdad"...

7:46 AM, July 01, 2009

Blogger Nibras Kazimi نبراس الكاظمي said...

Hi Matt,

The symbolism of the 1920 Revolt and the troop withdrawal is mostly being harped upon by the tribal sheikhs, who'd like to remember the tribal glories of days past. It doesn't seem to resonate as much with regular folks.

Dear V,

Did you arrive yet? Unless you're the other V, in that case, where have you been?

Dear Peter,

I started discussing the end of the insurgency in Oct. 2006. Kindly see the following post and the subsequent posts and columns I wrote about the topic:




9:37 AM, July 01, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pagan guard killed in Baghdad:


1:33 AM, July 04, 2009

Blogger Kanani said...

Good reporting, Dr. Nibras!
Take care.

12:57 PM, July 06, 2009

Blogger Kanani said...

Elf, I'm with you on that.

1:09 PM, July 06, 2009

Blogger olivebranch said...

Nibras, perhaps you should ban this Jaguar b. p. - though I am a champion of free speech there are MANY forums through which he can still spit his poison without having to invade your space.

- olivebranch
aka luke skinner

8:26 PM, July 06, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can I stay if I start praising the cross-worshippers?

11:13 PM, July 06, 2009

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is a truthful comment by an American, from the CBSNews website

by toldyouso29 6:57 AM PDT
Al Maliki is a collaborator. To our benefit or not - when a person is a collaborator, they are a traitor to their own country
and are aiders and abettors of the people who invaded and occupy their country. Despicable, really - no matter how we want to use them.

11:16 PM, July 06, 2009

Anonymous Peter said...

olivebranch, freedom is absolute.

Claiming that you are a "champion of free speech" while at the same time inciting to remove any opinions that differ from yours is ridiculous at least.

Have you ever thought about the fact that Americans consider speech only free speech as long as it goes with their ideals?

1:28 PM, July 07, 2009

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Spam, on the other hand, is not protected speech.

I'm anxious to hear more updates from Baghdad!

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